Shoebacca wrote:
I think you are all forgetting one big factor about Hall that differentiates him from almost everyone mentioned in this thread. He was raised at altitude.
Good, good observation. As pointed I out before, Ryan Hall, as other Kenyan runner born altitude, not benefiting from blood or doping EPO. Other words, he is truly the fastest America runner ever lived.
More importantly what does Bob think Ryan is capable now. Bee awhile since he's put up something world class, like his breakout half
Okay, here we go: in his interview with letsrun in the fall of his senior year of high school, he said that he frequently did 8 and 10 mile "lactate threshold" and tempo runs. He reported 5:26/M at altitude (Big Bear, 6700 ft) for 8M tempo and 5:20/M at lower altitude for 10M.
However, in a subsequent interview, his father recalled a 48:55 10M run at altitude in Big Bear. This may have been later in the fall or in the following spring. That latter run was the one I was thinking of, and it got numerous commenters in the speculation game on his future in the marathon at the time.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1724715%20
Sounds like RH should go back to his HS training.
While he may not have been able to run 2:10 in HS, he should be better at longer distances now. If his HS training sounds like it would get him to 2:10, that would be a good plan for next years Olympics trials.
That would be a good plan, a 2:10 would put him right in the mix...only three Americans broked 2:11 last year.
2:08:37d Meb Keflezighi (Skech) Boston 04/21
2:10:52 Jeffrey Eggleston (Co) Brisbane 07/06
2:10:57 Ryan Vail (Brk) London 04/13
Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:
malmo wrote:You're speaking for your lack of experience, not mine.
When he was a high school junior I thought he had the potential to be one of the best American TRACK runners ever. His senior year at Stanford he certainly showed that he had the potential to become the best 1/2 marathoner in history, with his 13:22 NCAA win (one of the best ever in meet history) and 13:16 at USATF.
My only point was: 99% (if not 100%) of people did not see him suddenly becoming the fastest US born marathoner in history BY FAR (and almost running 2:05), within a couple years of graduating college (or ever). Yes, there were certainly many who thought he could do great things on the track (as did I), and probably some like you that saw great 1/2 marathon potential (however, not too many were likely predicting a solo 59:43 1 1/2 years out of college, after seeming to be a 5k runner).
I agree the 2:10 in HS was probably very unlikely. My only point, to clarify one more time, was that he had incredible hidden marathon potential that his HS performances certainly did not predict, and even his college performances did not predict. But it was clearly there, and until he ran the longer races, no one really knew what his long distance potential was
(and as far as the 2 5k's you list, Ian Dobson ran the basically the same times in those races, right (and in fact, 13:15 in the 2nd race)? I think you would have been surprised if Ian Dobson ran 59:43 1.5 years later and then 2:08 and nearly break 2:06 a little later. )
Perhaps 2:10 would have been a stretch, 2:15 sounds more likely but I get the point Coach Larsen is making. Franklin Sanchez had done a couple of long runs that clearly indicated he probably could have run 2:15 with out specifically training for a marathon. Josh McDougal had done an 18 mile training run that was better than what you would expect of 2:15 marathoner. From memory, German Fernandez and Luke Puskedra both run sub-1:10 half marathons in H.S. that were little more than off season training runs. I also recall a H.S. kid from Jersey running a 1:07 half marathon in Philly quite a few years ago. None of these kids were raised at altitude like Hall was.
Hall's debut was 2:08:24. A very nice time. This was after an addition 5 or 6 years of development through college and his first year or two as a professional. The race itself was highly competitive and fast.
It seems to me if he was really a 2:10 marathoner in HS, then 5 or 6 years of even better training should have resulted in better than 90 seconds of improvement.
Not at that level you say?
Well funny, because after another year or two as a professional, he cut 127 seconds off by running 2:06:17.
I agree with most here that he was probably 2:15-2:17 capable in High School.
[quote]Far Out West wrote:
Would like to see the Colorado list. I am sure Oregon has a pretty good one too.
I was off on the date. So I may be off slightly on the times.
In 1979 all but Hattersley ran thosr times in one race in Arizona after NCAAs that year., Hattersley ran in Oregon..
John Hunsaker 2:14
Chuck Hattersley 2: 14
Mark Spilsbury 2:16
Mike Buhman 2:16
Mark Anderson 2:17
Kirk Pfeiffer 2:13:08? later date maybe? in NYC was on world record pace at one point until Rodgers was able to run him down near the park. Pfeff ran an insane workout the day before in Boulder averaging at least 5:30 per mile over somewhere around 20 miles including up Dakota Ridge (no small feat, for those of you familiar with the terrain)
The story has it he felt so good he contacted the NYC officials to get a race entry , took a red eye and ran the race. Imagine our astonishment the next to wake up and watch the race and see KIrk running the race. Often wonder what he might have done that day with a proper taper .
There were others though I can't recall their names at the moment and apologies to them. I believe there were probably close to seven on that team alone that met the PT qualifying time.
Shoebacca wrote:
I think you are all forgetting one big factor about Hall that differentiates him from almost everyone mentioned in this thread. He was raised at altitude. It's not a coincidence that he's the fastest American-born half and full marathoner. We'd believe that plenty of Kenyan juniors could break 2:10, so why not Ryan Hall?
A junior is different than a high schooler. A junior could run a Fall marathon, aged 19, and if they turn 20 after 12/31 they are still 19. They may be 19 and 7 mos or 8 mos, but still a junior.
A HSer could run a marathon in the spring of senior yr, aged 17.75 to 18.25 and still be a high schooler. That age difference is a HUGE difference in maturity.
I suppose from the training standpoint they may be best off by trying this theoretical test in the Fall in a marathon like Chicago or Berlin or NYC, during or after XC season. But now you see why so few HSers attempt it. When would you do it? And for what? The truly talented are always chasing titles in XC, times in indoor, and records in outdoor.
Grandma's Marathon really offers the best shot at it for a HSer. But then you aren't a HSer anymore.
I don't believe that Kenyan Juniors break 2:10, they are not juniors. If any of them ever did they were doped up like the seniors. I don't believe that Ryan Hall could have run 2:10 much less the 2:09 that you say we should believe.
If he had that kind of ability at 17/18, he would have won FootLocker and run about 8:20-28 at least for 2 miles and he ran 8:55 for 3200m.
Frank Shorter ran 8:26 indoors in 1971, 1.5 years before he won the Munich Olympics and his marathon best was 2:12:51 (at Fukuoka that year). He was ranked #1 in the World that year.
He ran 8:27 indoors in 1976, 6 months before he was second in Montreal.and his marathon best was 2:10:30 (at Fukuoka in 1972). His best that year was 2:10:46 (at the Olympics). He was ranked #2 in the World that year.
He ran 8:27 indoors AGAIN in 1977. And his marathon best was still 2:10:30 from 1972, and he ran his all-time best in the 5k at 13:26 that year.
All three of his THREE-fastest 2 miles were run in San Diego in February indoors.
Could Ryan Hall have run 8:27y or 13:26 in HS? Obviously this comparison does not prove it (or prove anything) but if we had several Americans who had run 2:10 for the marathon and 3:43m and 8:55 (3200m) while concentrating on all of those distances, I would say you are right. But we don't.
How many Americans have even run under 2:10:59?
http://www.usatf.org/statistics/All-Time-Lists/MarathonMen.aspx(this is out of date but close enough)
Hall - 2:06:17
Morris - 2:09:32
Lawson - 2:09:35
Culpepper - 2:09:41
Ritz - 2:10:00
Petersen - 2:10:04
Salazar - 2:10:08
Sandoval - 2:10:20
Wells - 2:10:20
Pfeffer - 2:10:29
Shorter - 2:10:30
Gotcher - 2:10:36
Sell - 2:10:47
Lodwick - 2:10:54
Tabb - 2:10:54
Rodgers - 2:10:55
Hodge - 2:10:59
Eyestone - 2:10:59
So there are 13 men in all of American history who have a 2:10:XX best on a certified course (Ritz has since run 2:07). Take a HARD look at list and see if you don't think these guys were WAAAYY better distance runners in the year they ran 2:10 than Hall was as a senior?
Even the last guys on the list were way better. Eyestone had won THREE NCAA titles 6 yrs earlier in 1984 and run 27:41 six yrs earlier. Bob Hodge ran 28:24 and 28:29 for a track 10k (albeit in 1984 and 1987).
Hall was nowhere near this ability.