Number of 5 minute miler in US

I must have 20 out of 30 boys on my team that have & will break 5 minutes for the mile & 1 girl who will.

well aren't you just super-coach of the year

nope. i wrote "can run sub 5:00", but should have written "would run sub 5:00 if you made them run the mile in gym class." they pretty much all run the mile in gym class.

the thing is, as i stated, the calculation is clearly invalid for four-minute milers. the distribution falls off very sharply near 4:00. the question is, does it deviate from a normal distribution before 5:00? it probably does, but i would need more data to say how much.

it is also possible that the people who collected the data didn't do a great job, or that the data is outdated. for example, it states that 50% of 17 year old boys in the US will run 7:04 or faster when you test them and 15% will run 6:06 or faster. based on watching lots of kids trying to huff and puff around the track in 9:00, those figures seem off. other than myself, only 1 kid out of ~40 ran faster than 6:04 in my gym class.

the data comes from here:

http://www.fitness.gov/getfit.pdf

page 14.

here's how i did the calculation-

national physical fitness award is the 50th percentile (i.e. the mean or average) and presidential physical fitness award is the 85th percentile (about 1.035 standard deviations from the mean). you use the two times to calculate how much time corresponds to one standard deviation, then how many standard deviations correspond to a 5:00 mile. then you look up in a chart (or calculate from a formula) what percentage of a population is outside that number of standard deviations.

you can find a brief explanation and the chart here:

http://ce597n.www.ecn.purdue.edu/CE597N/1997F/students/michael.a.kropinski.1/project/tutorial?a1=-2.00&mu1=0.00&sigma1=1.00&b2=2.00&mu2=0.00&sigma2=1.00&a3=-2.00&b3=2.00&mu3=0.00&sigma3=1.00&Min_x=0.0&Max_x=2.2

example: 17 year old boys

national fitness award: 7:04

presidential award: 6:06

the difference is 1.035 standard deviations and :58s, so one standard deviation is :58s/1.035 = :56s

(7:04-5:00)/:56 = 2.21 standard deviations, so the chart shows .9866 of the population cannot run 5:00, therefore .0134=1.3% of 17 year old boys can run sub5

extending the calculation (you see here how it can become ridiculous),

(7:04-4:00)/:56 = 3.29 standard deviations, 1-.9995=.0005=.05% of 17 year old boys should run sub 4:00

.02% should run sub 3:43

6/1,000,000 should run sub 3:00

there is about a 50% chance that at least one US 17 year old would run sub 2:00 if you tested them all

I would guess 100,000 people in the US can go sub-5:00

Probably 8,000 can break 4:45

Probably 1,000 can break 4:30

Probably 250 can break 4:15

Probably 25 can break 4:00

too many references to sf section...sf section is not representative of nation. just go south a bit and check out southern california where sub 5 will not take you into cif [high school]. and im sure all d1, d2, and d3 xc college athletes [men] can go sub 5 and many d1 women and top d2 women as well. my high school had about 10 sub 5 milers out of maybe 30-40 athletes. and we werent even that good. only one made it into cif. but that was because he ran 4:15. the next fastest was 4:4x...and he couldnt make it out of league...

its obvious to say the percentages are much higher within the hs to college age group though.

How many US athletes broke the 5min barrier last year?

Road?

Track?

It's one thing to suggest someone is capable of a feat, but quite another to achieve success.

Is it safe to assume that some of the capable HS basketballers, footballers, etc. would underperform?

What!!!!!

Surely any fit 20-35 year old can run a 5 minute mile. It really is no big deal (sure maybe doing 26.2 in a row is). There must be more than 200,000 in a country the size of the USA. I live in the UK where granted we're not as obese, but I'd expect most of my mates who are footballers etc to comfortably run a 5 minute mile. I think any able bodied 20-35 year old male should be able to run a 40min 10k and a 5 minute mile. If they can't they need to get some serious exercise.

sloth wrote:

nope. i wrote "can run sub 5:00", but should have written "would run sub 5:00 if you made them run the mile in gym class." they pretty much all run the mile in gym class.

Aside from the statistical considerations, there are practical ones. While I'd guess that a mile test is widespread, it's not universal. In Ohio you need two semesters of PE, typically taken in 9th and 10th grade. It's much easier for a 17-year-old boy to run this fast than a 13-year-old one, so we're missing out there.

Second, sub-5:00 times in PE are exceedingly rare because kids don't need to run that fast. The standard for an A is never that fast, and even if you want to be the fastest in your class or even in the school for that semester you almost never need 5:00. Our 35-year vet gym teacher has seen just three sub-5:00 gym class miles. It's not like we've never had any good runners (enrollment 2000, school records 1:55.6, 4:11.34, 9:09.7).

Finally, things like this are almost never normally distributed. I'm betting that it's seriously skewed to the left because it's much easier to run slow than to run fast. I might be able to find out; I'm collecting all the PE mile times for this semester in order to do a data analysis unit with my Algebra classes. I'm very interested to see what results we get, even with a small sample size. While this is just one school in one city, we're about as average a school as there is in a very average city in a very average state. I'll post it when we're done!

Trying to figure out how many in the US could run sub 5 would make my head hurt. I do know though that in my high shool of 1300 students, we had 9 guys I can think of right now who broke 5 minutes for the mile (some just barely) on the track team my senior year, and at least two guys on the baseball team could have (they ran CC and had comparable sub 5 minute times). A couple others who ran CC and then wrestled but didn't run track could have come close or just made it, and there was a report that one kid ran a sub 5 in gym class but never came out for any sports, so that's 11 for sure, 13 possibly, and if the gym kid story is true, 14. This doesn't take into consideration the fat that there probably are a few others who could have done it but just never tried - some 400 meter guys, some stoners who never came out for track, etc.

Sub 5 1600 or mile for a high school kid isn't that tough. I'd say you have to get to 4:40 before you can start talking 1-2 kids per high school.

Now, when you're talking ADULTS, a recent study showed that 95% in the US can't even run a mile without stopping at ANY PACE, so a 5 minute mile for that group is pretty good.

To give you an actual figure from the UK distance lists I compile and are displayed at

www.britishmilersclub.com

In 2004, 587 athletes have run 4:08.0 or faster for 1500. As we run so few miles you can reasonably infer that approximately 600 ran 4:30 or better for the mile. Given 4:30 and 5:00 are worlds apart it's hard to extrapolate from that figure.

Estimating now and keeping it relatively simple - to break 5:00 for the mile you need to be able to run sub 4:40 for 1500.

In my club we currently have 8 athletes who could do that. There are about 1500 clubs in the UK although a good 50% of these don't do much if any track. At a probably slightly high guestimate then I might say about 10,000 people in the UK could currently run a sub 5 mile.

I think USA has 5 times more people than UK so 50,000 is my guess!

There's a big difference between potential and real 5 minute milers (or any other time), especially since a lot of people on this board seem to think- well since I ran a 5 min mile 40 years ago, I'm still a 5 min miler. There's also those people who say- well I ran well under 5 a few years ago, but have gotten out of shape, and I could do it again given a few weeks to a month to train- but they couldn't do it TODAY.

I think we overestimate the general public by a lot. I was talking to 2 girls who are in "good shape" for non-runners (one is a competitive mt biker), and they were talking about how incredibly fast a 6 minute mile was. To them, we're like El G.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

...I'd say you have to get to 4:40 before you can start talking 1-2 kids per high school.

Now, when you're talking ADULTS, a recent study showed that 95% in the US can't even run a mile without stopping at ANY PACE, so a 5 minute mile for that group is pretty good.

2003 ASD Superstudy of Sports Participation:

36.1 million Americans ran at least once last year

10.5 million Americans ran at least 100 times last year

2003 NSGA Sports Participation survey:

22.9 million Americans ran at least 6 times last year

USATF Road Running Inforation Center:

7.7 million estimated finishers in all U.S. races and untimed runs

I think 95% is a bit harsh.

Also, there are 166 schools in the OHSAA's northwest district. 29 kids from those schools ran sub-4:40 last year. Granted, three-fourths are farm schools, but even in Lucas County's 22 schools there were just six sub-4:40 runners (and two of them actually live in Wood County). A down year to be sure, but not THAT far down.

OK, here are some lists for ya'll. The top 1600 meter times for high school boys from 1997, 98, 99, and 00. This is a list combining converted mile and 1500 times, and the list only lists each boy once. The cutoff is approximately 4:30 (for the 1600, remember).

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats97/topb16.htm

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats98/topb16.htm

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats99/topb16.htm

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats00/topb16.htm

# of boys

1997: 629

1998: 850

1999: 933

2000: 405

4 year average: 704 per year

That's a shitload of kids running 4:30 or faster. How much more rarer is a sub-4:30 than a kid running between 4:30 and 5? That's the tough question.

My guess is that for every kid on this list, there are another 5 stuck between 4:30 and 5. It's the law of averages. As the times gets slower, the number of people greatly increases.

Therefore my guess is about 4,200 high school kids can break 5 any given year. What percentage of high schoolers would that be?

Massive drop 1999 to 2000? Sounds as if the compiler did not see enough results!

Interesting to compare UK to US figures.

In 2004, I have noted 148 UK Under 20 athletes to 4:08.0 1500 which is roughly 4:30 for 1600.

Times 148 by 5 (approximate relative population sizes) and our respective figures look very similar.

Cheers

Tim

One poster said any able body 20-35 year old should be able to run a 5:00 mile. I would instead say any able body young adult should be able to run a 6:00 - 6:30 mile. Even, in ROTC few run a 6:00 mile during their training. I would say about 2% of the general population can run a 6:00 minute mile.

The 200,000 number for US five minute milers sounds about right. You have to assume many NBA, NHL, MLB, and MLS athletes can run a five minute mile. Any athlete with 55 second quarter mile track speed should be able to run a 5 minute mile.

The 5 minute mile and 3 hour marathon is a great goal for any weekend warrior.

If your high school track team does not have any five minute milers then you are in for a long season unless your team is very strong in the sprint and field events.

I have never seen any high school track team without a five minute miler.

j squire,

WOW! I'm shocked that so few ran sub 4:40 in those schools.

When I was a senior in high school, we had three who did it. Me (of course) and two others (one guy was primarily an 800 guy but he busted 4:40 in a 6400-meter relay) - hey j quire - you could go look up more of my track and CC history in the Bowling Green Sentinel Tribune OR the Toledo Blade :). I was even a Toledo Blade CC All-Star (oh the HONOR!).

A little math on the stats you provided though shows that if 36.1 million Americans ran at least once lst year (I'll give the benefit of the doubt and say they ran a mile at least), then that is about 86% of Americans who ran a mile that year (based on about 267 million Americans). Since I'm SURE that some of those HAD to be teenagers (not yet adults) it is easy to imagine that perhaps 95% of ADULTS didn't run at all and perhaps could not run a mile without stopping. Seems hard for most of us to believe, but that's just how unfit most of the population is and how unpopular running is for the majority of Americans.

U Sure? wrote:

What!!!!!

Surely any fit 20-35 year old can run a 5 minute mile.

It really is no big deal (sure maybe doing 26.2 in a row is). There must be more than 200,000 in a country the size of the USA. I live in the UK where granted we're not as obese, but I'd expect most of my mates who are footballers etc to comfortably run a 5 minute mile.

I think you are dramatically underestimating the difficulty of running a 5-minute mile. Just for kicks, why don't you organize a mile time trial for your mates and watch what happens?

I work at a university that has a nationally ranked soccer team. A few weeks ago, I watched as the coach put the team through a mile time trial on the track. One guy broke five minutes; most ran in the 5:30 to 6:00 range, and it clearly wasn't easy for them.

-Brent

36.1 million Americans who ran once / 267 million Americans total equals 13.5%, not 86%.

Sit Down,

Why the need to rip into this guy. I highly doubt he was on to brag about a number of sub 5 milers. He honestly responded to a question & gave some facts he has.

It's people like you that make boards like these crappy.

So what can you add to the discussion?