What year does 1:39.9 happen?

i got ryun at 142 flat and 328 1500 today, maybe that's a little conservative. there you go.

who goes 139?

i think the idea of progression is absolutely nonsense, or should i say the idea of evolution generally speaking, the common man really has a warped idea of the concept.

the luck of the draw is waaay underestimated, we do venture to say here.

certainly evolution of drugs is a big factor thought. a new drug and then there is a quantum leap. way back in the day, those guys were plain foolish, running 25 miles a week and pulling off a 4 minute mile. those kind of talents could easily have run 350 today, with only with 2 seasons work.

harbig 3/4 a century ago ran 146 and the guy might have been just been getting going, died in the war, no competition in site. way back in the day they just had no clue what so ever about training. the quantum jump of harbig was just a guy that had talent and trained "correctly". you even have to look at a harbig for PEDs because testosterone was around for hitler's super soldiers...

google and have fun.

a ryun, at the right time and place could have blown the doors of the records around the mile distance. then there would not have been any progress at all these last 50 years. none. especially if you wiped out epo records.

right now, there is no evolution of the human species. did Beethoven evolve from someone else??? did mozart evolve into the sex pistols.

what happened after Shakespeare? did americans evolve into poetic literate wonderous folk?

sure the body accumulated coaching knowledge, sports med and drugs and in some cases good diet indicate statistically there will be improvement, but there are other negative factors as well such as a declining population that is fit and tough. big time decline.

what we have today, subtract out the synthetic surface, the drugs, the blood doping no one is evolving at all at the mile distance.

ryun, keno walker bayi coe ovett cram, all those guys were more or less the same at peak plus or minus. with the later bunch perhaps profiting from sports medicine of some sort.

no there is no evolution really after all the smoke and mirrors, that is after ryun and keno. even snell with his lack of speed training might well have run the equivalent of a 142 a half century plus ago.

so in the 800m 139 quantum jump, it will come down to the fluke coach coaching the fluke athlete for the 139 and maybe with a new PED. rudisha is certainly capable. but when it happens it ain't going to according to a stupid Ph.D. formula or a reading from a graph.

well, i kind of exaggerate the case here but you get the drift.

you do know that the boys got down under 45 seconds for the 400m with steroids, right? all of them??

and EPO gets you down to 43. you know that right?

so if you knock out the PEDS boom, the men's records will not improve at all, no one will be able to touch them. just like the women cannot touch the fake american, east bloc and chinese steroid bs records of today.

The 1:39.9 will happen once I turn 24 years of age. End of discussion.

longjack wrote:i got ryun at 142 flat and 328 1500 today, maybe that's a little conservative. there you go

little ?

try HUGE underestimate

a ryun, at the right time and place could have blown the doors of the records around the mile distance

no

try

800 - mile

he was 800wr holder

Nostratimes wrote:

What are folks thoughts on when someone will break 1:40 for the 800? I'm saying 2028ish...

It will happen when they invent something faster than Mondo ...

1399

I actually prefer to state it as 99.9 and not 1:39.9. That's how I've always heard it.

ventolin^3 wrote:

longjack wrote:i got ryun at 142 flat and 328 1500 today, maybe that's a little conservative. there you go

little ?

try HUGE underestimate

a ryun, at the right time and place could have blown the doors of the records around the mile distance

no

try

800 - mile

he was 800wr holder

No, he was never ratified as 800m world record holder, as you have been told many times. He broke the 880yd WR, there was no official timing at 800m. He is NOT listed on the IAAF progression of world records. And it was on a synthetic track, thus inferior to Snell's 1:44.3 on grass.

Peer Mediator wrote:

No, he was never ratified as 800m world record holder, as you have been told many times. He broke the 880yd WR, there was no official timing at 800m. He is NOT listed on the IAAF progression of world records. And it was on a synthetic track, thus inferior to Snell's 1:44.3 on grass.

The IAAF recognizes him running 1:44.3

P.S. You have to be completely dense to deny that he ran AT LEAST 1:44.3

He broke Snell's 880y WR. Snell ran 1:44.3 en route to his 880y WR. If Ryun was under Snell's 880y WR, it stands to reason he was under his 800m WR too.

You denying he did not set/tie the WR is a technicality that only someone with a grudge against Ryun would constantly bring up, as you constantly do (and clearly do)

P.P.S. Ryun ran a 880y heat just 2 hours before the final in which he broke the WR. He ran on a semi-synthetic track that was not comparable to synthetic. It's only usefulness was that is wasn't adversely affected by rain to the extent that a grass or synthetic track would.

No one runs a heat just 2 hours before attempting to run a WR. Snell's run was not superior. It [Snell's] was a great run though, and he probably could have run faster if not for the too fast first lap.

P.P.P.S Please quit it was the Ryun denigrating. It is really annoying. But thanks for not bringing your Coe wankery into the thread.

Beau is fat wrote:

If it doesnt happen in 2015 or 2016, then I think it is going to be a long wait. While many of the young 800 guys are excellent, Rudisha is the only one who MAY be able to stretch it to 1:39.9. Realistically he has about 2 years left of his peak running.

This is your answer right here. Rudisha is or at least was miles ahead of the rest. I personally think maybe the best record in Track and Field. Who is going to take another 2 seconds off?

Someone will take down the Long jump record before the 800 meter record with the single exception that somehow Rudisha takes it down himself.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Ryun ran his WR off a 1'50+ prelim

1'50+ does not take anything out of a 1'38 guy.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

Ryun ran his WR off a 1'50+ prelim

1'50+ does not take anything out of a 1'38 guy.

You're being misleading.

He was in that shape in 1967. The 800m race being discussed was in 1966. He was much better in 1967.

The potential Ventolin speaks of is in a "perfect" race, i.e.

1) synthetic track being the biggest factor

2) having a rabbit

He had neither for that prelim which slows down the overall time. It's intrinsic value given the above 2 factors makes it worth under 1:50 if you're comparing it to his potential.

And no one in their right mind runs a prelim before a world record attempt. To say it takes nothing out of you is stupid.

FSM wrote:

And no one in their right mind runs a prelim before a world record attempt

Except Rudisha.

It's easy mmmkay wrote:

FSM wrote:

And no one in their right mind runs a prelim before a world record attempt

Except Rudisha.

Not 2 hours before.

ventolin^3 wrote:

longjack wrote:i got ryun at 142 flat and 328 1500 today, maybe that's a little conservative. there you go

little ?

try HUGE underestimate

a ryun, at the right time and place could have blown the doors of the records around the mile distance

no

try

800 - mile

he was 800wr holder

============================================================================

right, around the mile distance i'm talkin 800m to 2k.

the most intriguing thought is to me is, what if ryun concentrated on 400m?? could he break 45? i'm thinking 45 mid he'd go, like rudisha.

Captain Oblivious wrote:

That's because Coe was 15 years ahead of his time.

Cruz ran the same time three years later.

Well all of you are slightly off when it comes to THE man ahead of his time - if you knew your 800m running you would know it wasn't Coe, Snell but Rudolf Harbig who ran 1.46.6 in 1939 - now he was ahead of his time.

Okay now we have that out of the way - sub 1.40? Well first of all lets agree that at some point there is a limit to what a natural human will run for this distance. We can safely assume no man will ever run the 800m in 10 seconds, safely assume no man will ever do it in 43 seconds (the current 400m record) and even a time averaging 45 seconds (1min30) a lap seems seriously unlikely.

People argue human evolution - really? Have we really evolved much physically in the last even 100 years? Men 100 years ago had legs, arms, one heart, two lungs the same as today. Today we have better "sporting selection" whereby the best physiological candidates gravitate to the best suited sports for them and sure there are vast improvements in diet, training methods etc etc but the impacts of these are extremely difficult to tangibly measure.

A sub 1.40 - lets work backwards from todays leading candidate.

In all 3 of his WR performances Rudisha closed out his final 200m between 26.4 and 26.6 seconds. Lets assume that the plausible limit for this final quarter is around 26.0 seconds. That is not unreasonable given what has to go on now in the first 600m of the race. Which simply put is hitting that mark in under 74 seconds. The current world record for 600m set 21 years ago is 72.81 seconds so basically in a sub 1.40 the candidate has to hit 600m around 1 second slower than this and still have the strength to run that close out 200 in around 26 seconds.

If we say 73.9 at 600m with a 3rd 200m in about 25.0 seconds (the toughest 200m of any 800) then we see that a sub 49 second 400m is an absolute prerequisite to breaking 1.40. I mean this has been done before many times - most famously by Kipketer who blasted through 400m in around 48.6 seconds in his first world record in 1997. That day he could muster 25.9 in the third 200 and 26.7 seconds in his final 200m for 1.41.24

Point is the speed platform simply needs to be laid in the opening 400m but not at the expense of needing to run a 51 second (or thereabouts) second 400m - and it is an incredibly tight rope to walk. Any 100m segment run uneconomically (too fast, too slow, expended energy due to pace surges/jostling) affects the balance on that tight rope.

For that reason I personally don't think we are seeing sub 1.40 anytime soon. I would be surprised if it happened in the next 50 years. Very surprised.

I give even odds by 2050.

I'll go with 2019.

Or 2033. One of the two.

can't you see the boys going one second better??

if and when amos and rudisha are both in top shape and meet then there is a scenario that amos can draft all the way.

remember they ran heats too in that last world record.