It will indeed be interesting to revisit this topic in three years. Or even at the end of this outdoor season for purposes of the comparison to Rupp, since Rupp took some big steps forward during the 2010 outdoor season, which is to say his first full outdoor season after running his last collegiate race in June 2009.
Rupp and Hasay's career up to this point is very similar. In fact, her times accross the board (on average) are about equal to or faster than Shalane and Kara's first year as a pro. And, all of those 10Ks she ran last year within a month, I don't think Shalane or Kara could have done that. Hassay is obviously very strong, recovers super quick and/or is one tough SOB. With that said, her inability to switch gears is going to always be a libility in championship track races. I can she Jordan contining to drop PRs and her kick improving, but her inability to react to pace changes seems like it is always going to be there. I've watched her in several big races, most notably the NCAA Cross champ where she lost ground when the pace suddenly picked up, she finished strong and did not give up any more ground than the initial gap, but could not close the gap. Having a kick is important, but if you get gapped, it want matter. Btw, to those who say the marathon is going to be her race, well sudden pace changes happen there as well.
I can see Jordan having a long productive career, making a lot of national teams, running DL meets, but her global victoreis being few and far between. - This coming from someone who truely admires her.
I think Hasay's biggest problem right now is her velocity at V02 max, which seems to be around 2:55 / km if we use 3000m PR as a proxy. If she can knock that down to 2:50 / km, I think she'd have a much better chance of successfully shifting gears mid-race at longer distances than she does now. [tough to shift gears when you're already running close to your V02 max pace.] Will be interesting to see if she can actually make that kind of 3% improvement [big ask but not necessarily impossible.]
Looking at Galen Rupp's numbers in 2009/2010 compared to today, I see a similar deficit, which he subsequently eliminated [dropped his velocity at V02 max from 2:34 / km to 2:30 / km]
What is that you R saying? wrote:
@elphant: Are you claiming that Hasay at 22 is more mature than Rupp is at 28?
Rupp did not take until the age of 28 to at least start to show an inkling of some wheels. Remember his last year in college? What was he, 22 years old? when he started blowing the doors off of everyone in NCAA's - always with a sit and kick race strategy.
He had to keep improving from there but if we saw it at least beginning from Rupp at 22 then we should have seen it at least beginning with Hasay at 19/20.
She's a great kid. But she will never experience any real success on the international scene. Making a few US teams and maybe even a few US championships is her ceiling. Not bad. But not Rupp-esque.
Bobby Kennedy had a long productive career. Kennedy started out as a 1500m runner like Jordan, and was always good in cross up to the 5K. He had decent speed for a 5K specialist, he could get out on pace and finish strong, but he was subsceptabe to sudden pace changes and never completely got over that. When AlSal stared the NOP, two of the things he learned from consulting with Kennedy and Kennedy himself learned from training in Africa was that a race is game and the game plan has to be to compete with the athletes and not the clock. Kennedy told AlSal that a kick is not just being able to pick up the pace at the end, but being able to sprint. Some of the top 5k/10k women are running their last 200m in 27/28 seconds...that's sprinting.
U.S. athletes, especially in 90s to early 2000s were so locked into staying on their splits and not blowing up that they forgot to compete. If you want to compete with the best athletes in the world, you have to stay with the leaders and risk blowing up. Unfortunately, when Kennedy got this concept down pact, he was entering the twilight of his career, but NOP has benefited from it.
Obviously to do that you have to have talent and be in great shape, but it takes a lot of confidence as well. When the pace picked up suddenly, it always slows back down, but if they gap you, it ain't going to slow down far enough that your kick is going matter. When Shalane won bronze in the 10K there were 3 sudden pace changes in that race and she never completely lost contact with the lead group. And, although shalane ended up running a great time, that was not her game plan, he plan was to stay with the leaders for as long as she can.
The Africans train for this, in training, most of them don't wear a watch and and don't always run an exact distance. Jordan has been running splits since age group track and it is going to be a hard mental thing to shake. She also needs to get toa point where she run that 57 400m PR at the end of a workout.
I remember going to watch Jordan run in 4th grade beating 7th and 8th graders at junior high meets. Everybody from Arroyo Grande used to come to watch this little 4th grader beat up on girls two feet taller than her. LOL
Jordan way back when wrote:
I remember going to watch Jordan run in 4th grade beating 7th and 8th graders at junior high meets. Everybody from Arroyo Grande used to come to watch this little 4th grader beat up on girls two feet taller than her. LOL
Interesting but also disturbing. I'm impressed that Hasay - who from what you're saying started getting accustomed to winning everything in sight from the time she was a 4th grader - has been able to maintain a positive attitude through 4 years of being good but not great at Oregon and now a first year as a pro of basically not being competitive. Put another way: getting lapped is a far cry from beating the girls who are two feet taller - good for her to hang in there. No more making fun of Jordan Hasay for me - I'm officially back to being a fan.
p.s. I find the adulation of Sarah Baxter even more disturbing. She seems like a nice kid, she's obviously a good runner but there's nothing to suggest she will ever be world class [or that she aspires to be.] And now she's off to Oregon where her every result will be scrutinized... I don't see that ending well - very much hope to be wrong about that.
Big (well mostly big) Hasay fan. Surprised she can run a 57. What has made me ache for her is the last 200 or so ... in just about every race. Thought there was going to be a breakthrough of some kind when she stormed home in the distance medley vs Reid. But I'm sure her and Sal are well aware of that and we'll have to see if she can 'shift gears' in both individual races and in her overall racing performances.
That fourth grader is now ranked USA second in the 10K and has the fifth fastest time in the world (10K) this year! And 10 personal bests this year alone. That.....my friends is making it!
First, while not discounting the potential fruits of a long-term approach and sound buildup, yet I have a pretty strong feeling Hasay hardly enjoys enough focus and attention from Salazar. Galen has always been steadily improving. He was a beast at the end of his collegiate career. I remember watching a Flotrack interview back in 2008 where Rupp explicitly shared and was acutely conscious of the long-term approach he and Salazar were taking--and Salazar has long focused on and nurtured Galen Rupp. I don't see any other Salazar athlete--not even Mary Cain--actually realizing such a long-term program and leaving all the stones unturned. That may sound a bit obnoxious, but Rupp's lifestyle over the years has to have been something unique. His achievements (3:50i, fast 3k, and his twice sub 26:50s), for a white American distance runner, are too spectacular to ignore. And a variable of Salazar's long-time particular favoritism and attention had to have played a huge role.
Mont wrote:
I'd rather see her become the next Suzy Favor.
She can't, like another poster said, she has shortcomings in her speed endurance, and:
Methinks wrote:
Hasay has been running/racing hard since at least 9th grade and has great endurance, but little pop. Training only goes so far, genetics plays a big part and she just doesn't seem to have that natural gear shifting ability to really blast out of a pack [...] She spent the bulk of her college days specializing in 1500m where speed is much more important than then 10, but she still had to move up in distance due to lack of speed. [...]
If Hasay was from Australia, she would be the fastest woman in Australia LOL
i think that in 5 years hasay will be a totally different runner. i think salazar could get her 800 and 1500s down to at least 2:04 and 4:06, which would indicate that her 5k could drop a lot, maybe 15:10s.
i bet hasay is tearing up the roads in 2020.
whoever said she won't ever get any american records is way wrong. there are enough obscure ones that hasay could probably get close to this week even.
theyre super obscure, but i'm technically correct. check out this list of long distance track records
Fastnbulbous wrote:
CycloneAlum wrote:Is 10x200 at 30sec supposed to be something to be excited about? I can pull in 5-10 athlete with that "speed"/"endurance" any day of the week.
Obviously Rupp was the only 9th grade boy on the team who could do it, so it must mean something. Breaking 9:00 in the 3200 his very first season of track also meant he had good strength natural strength and endurance.
Rupp did not even break 9 in the 3k as a freshman
persectives wrote:
That fourth grader is now ranked USA second in the 10K and has the fifth fastest time in the world (10K) this year! And 10 personal bests this year alone. That.....my friends is making it!
Not really. Please check the thread title:
"Could Jordan Hasay be the next Galen Rupp?"
That suggests that becoming a threat to medal (possibly even a threat for gold) at major international meets is "making it".
She's not got his endurance though
57 is pretty good for a 10km runner, but the great ones do it at the end of a 10km
Still she is a good runner and is still progressing
Hasay runs 4:23.9 for the full mile on 5th Ave. Too bad her outdoor track season didn't go a little better, but this result reinforces my belief that she has sufficient speed to be a solid 10000m runner.
the juice must work a little better on downhill runs
How does Hasay do pretty well in both the 10k and the mile yet always seems to struggle with 5ks?
dkny64 wrote:
Hasay runs 4:23.9 for the full mile on 5th Ave. Too bad her outdoor track season didn't go a little better, but this result reinforces my belief that she has sufficient speed to be a solid 10000m runner.
and ya know, she beat Mary Cain today, but by all means lets not talk about that