watchout wrote:
at track wrote:If we're going to do that...
-Edwin Soi ran a 7:36 this year and a 12:51 this year
-Albert Rop ran a 7:35 this year and a 12:51 this year (both are his PRs)
- Yenew Almirew ran a 7:32 this year and a 12:54 this year
- Saif Shaheen's PRs are 7:32 and 12:48
So based off these guys True should be somewhere near 12:50 shape???
But we're going off Americans so Chris Derrick ran 7:44 and 13:08 this year which are both PRs. Alan Webb's PRs both came from 2005 and are 7:39 and 13:10. Teg's 3k PR is 7:35 and he ran a 13:04 the same year. True ran faster than any of them suggesting he's at least in 13-low or 13 flat shape.
Watchout you know much better than using individual athletes as proof of time equivalents. Multiple calculators (IAAF and Ventolin's so far) have both given True about a 13:05 and they rely on thousands of data points instead of hunches so lets stick with those when picking time equivalents.
So unless
I do know better than using individual athletes as proof of time equivalents or the reason behind conversion ratios; however, in responding to post like "OMG IAAF POINT TABLES" and "3.5% off world record pace is", I figured I would throw in a third absolutely incomplete comparison to point out the ridiculousness of saying "OMG YOU ARE SO WRONG, BEN TRUE IS GOING SUB-13 IF HE RACES AGAIN THIS YEAR, HE'S NOT A 13:15 GUY LIKE YOU AND THAT OTHER DUDE SAY". And using athletes with similar backgrounds (Americans, not born and raised and still living at high altitude, and 5k PR's at the time of their 3k PR's that are similar to Ben True's), I thought that would at least yield some credence to the idea that saying he's around 13:15ish for 5k isn't so crazy. I stated the problem with the Jager comparison in my post. The others seem reasonable, though as you point out a few cases are an incomplete look even if those are the only cases that are extremely similar (7:35-7:38 for a 7:36.6 guy).
By the way, you missed a couple Europeans that have run similar 3k times to True that ran well for 5k that year or earlier. However, you also missed many more Europeans (and Morrocans) that have run slower (and in some cases much slower) than 13:15 in the same situation. The average, I think, will work out to somewhere in the 13:10-13:20 if you really wanted to research it. But, yes, including all the Kenyans and Ethiopians as well would surely drop the average by quite a bit.
OK, so you are clueless. Got it.