MARY CAIN - 4:04 FROM LANE 2 THE WHOLE WAY!!!!

agip wrote:

So if you are able to do a long 400 meter squeeze to the finish, go ahead and be on the rail at 1100. But if you are hoping to win it in the last 150, then don't be on the rail at 1100.

Yep, if you can react and go hard for the ENITRE last 400, the rail is alright. Cain usually makes her move with around 100 to go, so I think she would be better off just outside the leaders with a lap to go.

agip wrote:

NOP Follower wrote:

Exactly.

http://youtu.be/5IpYjhn2a_0?t=5m47s

This may not be the best example, being that it's a 5000 and Rupp not being on the the rail, but the move with 400 to go perfectly shows how the race changes very quickly. Watch Rupp go from second to eighth in the matter of 30 meters

__

point taken...

maybe the message is that you better not get to the rail at 1100 and then just hang. You have to go hard or you get swallowed up.

So if you are able to do a long 400 meter squeeze to the finish, go ahead and be on the rail at 1100. But if you are hoping to win it in the last 150, then don't be on the rail at 1100.

OR, realize that each race will play out differently and be able to react accordingly. If you want to dictate when you surge or kick, don't be on the rail in the middle of a tight pack. If the field is slightly strung out, then run the rail and be patient.

agip wrote:

kiprop, on the rail at 1100, wins daegu 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKWxxVhL5kg

kamel, on rail at 1100 wins berlin 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydUYRRQQlSA

ramzi, 2005 world champs 1500, on rail at 1100, wins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abxUL7zz1nI

it may be the worst...or maybe it is the best. You decide.

Come on. On the rail IN FRONT is obviously a nice place to be with 400 to go. No one is denying that if Cain can get that spot she should take it. I think we can discount Kiprop and Ramzi, you chose poor examples.

However that Kamel example was a bit of magic. Go to 3:22, he is trapped on that rail and he comes right out of it. Nice, nice job. However Lagat was not so lucky. He's just as trapped and has to jump way out to escape.

Why chance it? The box doesn't always open as nicely as it did for Kamel there.

"Slow pace" for a women's world championship 1500m still requires a near-PR effort from Cain to medal. IIRC, Simpson won in 4:05 and change and it was one of the slowest 1500s ever. That was equivalent to the race that Mary ran today. What exactly do you mean when you say "slow"? This isn't the US indoor championships...

Montesquieu wrote:

And what if it's a slow pace, then what?

agip wrote:

so...let's say in the final she settles into a bernard lagat-like 3rd place on the rail for meters 300-1200...how does she not medal? She can outkick everyone except maybe aregawi.

I think she was really trying to get to the rail near the front but she didn't count on the pace being so fast fast fast - she smartly decided not to run 61 for lap 1 but then she got stranded.

alls I know is that I can't concentrate for anything right now after her semi - that was thrilling.

*One of the slowest WC 1500s ever

vid of Mary Cain's semifinal:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9_PanBFizY

vid of Semifinal 2 (Simpson and Brown):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF8XuTDHYgs

just watched the replay - guess what - Zoe buckman was never more than 12 inches from the rail, boxed in for 1400 meters, and still she wins the race.

fact is, things clear up in the last 100 and holes open up. buckman ran 1500 meters, cain ran 1515 meters and that was the difference.

Unless someone comes off the back of a pack with a kick so hard that the leaders let them go, things open up in the last lap, so being on the rail is usually not a big deal. Normally the leaders are either the ones kicking, or they're getting stretched out going after the kicker. Either way, there are holes.

The bigger problem is avoid is getting boxed in mid race behind runners who can't hang with the pace, because mid race is when runners will decide not to follow, which means no holes. That's what happens sometimes when good runners get knocked out in earlier rounds--they were held up by the runners who were totally outclassed. This is less of a risk in the finals, where everyone should be able to hang unless the pace is super hard.

tell me stories wrote:

Are you people serious? I stay as far away from the inside of lane 1 as possible.

Outside of lane 1/inside of lane 2 is the best place to be.

this person wins the game - smartest 'tactic' comment I've seen anywhere on the web

agip wrote:

kiprop, on the rail at 1100, wins daegu 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKWxxVhL5kg

kamel, on rail at 1100 wins berlin 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydUYRRQQlSA

ramzi, 2005 world champs 1500, on rail at 1100, wins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abxUL7zz1nI

it may be the worst...or maybe it is the best. You decide.

To be fair, Kiprop got extremely lucky in 2011 when Kiplagat let him have the inside lane with 200m to go.

Kamel won 2009 because of a DQ, she initially got second.

And Ramzi was a doper.

Bullet the Blue Sky wrote:

I suspect the goal was to stay out of trouble and advance. She did that.

^^^^^ This.

Most of you are thinking like she would be lucky to make the finals.

The goal was for a very talented runner to guarantee making the finals-- even if she didn't win the heat.

The way she ran is a sign of confidence in her abilities.

I like her outside lane strategy IF the pace is slower and it's championship style. F it. Run wild girl!

800 dude wrote:

Unless someone comes off the back of a pack with a kick so hard that the leaders let them go, things open up in the last lap, so being on the rail is usually not a big deal. Normally the leaders are either the ones kicking, or they're getting stretched out going after the kicker. Either way, there are holes.

The bigger problem is avoid is getting boxed in mid race behind runners who can't hang with the pace, because mid race is when runners will decide not to follow, which means no holes. That's what happens sometimes when good runners get knocked out in earlier rounds--they were held up by the runners who were totally outclassed. This is less of a risk in the finals, where everyone should be able to hang unless the pace is super hard.

What's the best tactic when the athlete is only 17 years old with less than a year of world class racing?

800 dude wrote:

Unless someone comes off the back of a pack with a kick so hard that the leaders let them go, things open up in the last lap, so being on the rail is usually not a big deal. Normally the leaders are either the ones kicking, or they're getting stretched out going after the kicker. Either way, there are holes.

The bigger problem is avoid is getting boxed in mid race behind runners who can't hang with the pace, because mid race is when runners will decide not to follow, which means no holes. That's what happens sometimes when good runners get knocked out in earlier rounds--they were held up by the runners who were totally outclassed. This is less of a risk in the finals, where everyone should be able to hang unless the pace is super hard.

What's the best tactic when the athlete is only 17 years old with less than a year of world class racing?

I watched her tonight and all I can say is W O W! Absolutely incredible.Yes, she was on the outside but avoided being boxed in as some have already mentioned. I really hope she continues to improve as she keeps getting more experience. Incredible talent!!!

TrackCoach wrote:

What's the best tactic when the athlete is only 17 years old with less than a year of world class racing?

World class racing? What exactly is the difference between this and high school, college, and national level? Racing is racing. She's been doing this for years.

agip wrote:

just watched the replay - guess what - Zoe buckman was never more than 12 inches from the rail, boxed in for 1400 meters, and still she wins the race.

fact is, things clear up in the last 100 and holes open up. buckman ran 1500 meters, cain ran 1515 meters and that was the difference.

That was the difference between what? Are they giving medals for winning qualifying heats now?

If it's a slow race through 1100 meters--slow enough for five or six runners to make a move down the homestretch leading up to the bell--even if she were in third at that point, she could easily be in seventh or eighth place at the bell and boxed in, and if she's till in seventh or eighth with 300 to go, in a World Championship final, she's in trouble. What should she do? Well, experienced and tactically smart runners know what to do from moment to moment during the race, for there are always endless variables that define a race. Notice, for example, in the 10000, Farah took the lead to try to slow the pace; in the 5000 he took the lead to pick up the pace. He thought the particular circumstances called for strategies that might have looked the same, but were different.

162430 wrote:

"Slow pace" for a women's world championship 1500m still requires a near-PR effort from Cain to medal. IIRC, Simpson won in 4:05 and change and it was one of the slowest 1500s ever. That was equivalent to the race that Mary ran today. What exactly do you mean when you say "slow"? This isn't the US indoor championships...

Montesquieu wrote:

And what if it's a slow pace, then what?