SPMBLNPF is Bumbi wrote:
Alberto, bear in mind that SPMBLNPF is Andrew Bumbalough as I mentioned at the top of the page. He's still bitter about last year.
Why, because he brought our Rupp's lack of emotional development for the crowd to see?
A Duck is NOT Alberto. Trust me.
SPMBLNPF wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.
Thank you for offering nothing. I have seen Galen run more than you know. The 3:50 is a red herring. Can you not address the thread's topic, instead of expressing your dislike for me? Apparently the answer is no. You disgrace the name with the moniker you utilize.
What do you mean by "the 3:50 is a red herring"? A "red herring" argument is usually one which has little relevance to the argument in question (an outlier and less meaningful piece of information or data) and is often meant to entice an emotional response in an individual. 3:50 = data which has direct meaning to Rupp's comfort ability surround 60-second pace, recovery abilities after surges, and new potential for closing. I get the feeling he's still adding speed.
The 3:50.92 mile indoors basically solo (a time trial) is a sign that 6 months ago Rupp was able to sustain 57.6 second 400m-pace for 4 laps on an indoor track (which is 28.8 seconds per 200m). He must've been clicking off 25's and 26's per 200m with ease long before he ran that. A month later he ran 7:30.16, also indoors, probably because running 60's for 7.5 laps around a track felt more comfortable after being to run 57.6 for 4 laps a month earlier. If you've been paying any attention to the training periods and methods used by Schumacher and Salazar over the last 5-6 years, you notice more qualitative racing and better training periods. You also know them running faster times at shorter distances before moving up in racing distance. After Rupp's recent altitude training stint, it will be interesting to see what he runs in Monaco. I wonder if it will be one of those championship multiple-heat style workouts they do where Rupp runs a time trial 5k at altitude (i.e. St. Moritz) and then runs a 5000m race within 48 hours of his 5k time trial at altitude. Maybe not- maybe they're saving that for worlds.
And even if Rupp doesn't run faster than 12:55 tomorrow, it doesn't mean he won't after worlds, which is when he's planning on peaking. I imagine they've been doing more VO2 strength workouts lately as the second big phase of their workout season, but I would say it's safe to say Rupp will be a very close competitor, able to finish in the top 3-4. Sometimes these race finishes are separated by less than tenths of a second.
Show your math, your data, your references, your analysis, and give a logical explanation of how you calculate 12:55 as Rupp's ceiling. Back up your assertions.
irun wrote:
The 3:50.92 mile indoors basically solo (a time trial)
YOU COMPLETE MORON.
STOP MAKING THINGS UP.
DID YOU EVEN SEE THE RACE?
HE WAS PACED PAST 1200 METERS! WHAT ELSE DO YOU WANT? THAT IS AS GOOD AS IT GETS.
"BASICALLY SOLO."
IDIOT.
irun wrote:
it's safe to say Rupp will be a very close competitor, able to finish in the top 3-4.
Wrong. Here are the correct probabilities:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5298000irun wrote:
Sometimes these race finishes are separated by less than tenths of a second.
True. The thing is that Rupp isn't in the race for 1st, or 3rd. He's in the race for 7th:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93qwVmBseEkillarney wrote:And he believes it not because of your calculator, but based on his own thinking, the same thinking that says a 27:00 / 13:10 combo is reasonable
you are clearly clueless
that was canova posting 400s nothing to do with a calculator
all sub-27 guys
go fetch the 57+ listed by him for those guys
where is it ???
Doubt it - it's a 1500 not a marathon
he tries to go out in 55+/1'51+ it will damn feel like it's killing him in last lap
It's not. Your calculator predicted that, not me
can't you think ???
if it says 57+ for a 13'10/27'00 guy, which of the 5k or 10k ones is going to be way wrong as measure of intrinsic ability knowing that canova has not listed anything slower than 54 ???
I believe 27:00 & 13:10 is viable
it's not
and I do not believe that implies 57 is their 400 ability
it's not
the lines of fit currently, sensibly, humanly possible for a 27-flat guy are :
51.0 / 1'47.9 -> 3'32.4 , 7'26.9 , 12'51.9 , 26'57.5
52.0 / 1'49.5 -> 3'34.7 , 7'30.0 , 12'55.3 , 26'59.3
53.0 / 1'51.0 -> 3'36.7 , 7'32.0 , 12'56.4 , 26'55.3
54.0 / 1'52.6 -> 3'39.0 , 7'35.2 , 12'59.8 , 26'57.1
55.0 / 1'54.2 -> 3'41.3 , 7'38.3 , 13'03.2 , 26'58.8
& that last line is already slower a 400 then canova listed
The reason I believe this is because I do not believe your calculator is accurate. I don't know how much more clear I can make that statement
you clearly can't think or try to...
If you want some more inaccuracies of the caculator, try playing with Hall's 59:43 half-marathon...
learn to read
it says on the site :
track times to predict track times
road times to predict road times, without even having to be stated that they are all on similar flat roads/wind/etc
SPMBLNPF = Alberto Salazar?
I am sorry , but you are an idiot ! I don't know what you base your thinking on , but your crystal ball is not working well! Anyone with any eye for talent can see that Rupp has a high potential especially in his system, that works very well for him! Bernard Lagat has proven haters wrong for years , he will prove you wrong again here ! I'm sure you are one of those who said Rupp had No Chance of an Olympic medal too!!!!!
SPMBLNPF wrote:
I have stated previously that Bernard Lagat will NEVER break 13 minutes again. This is a cold hard reality. Galen Rupp has a lifetime ceiling of 12:55, which leaves precious little margin for error in breaking 13. Galen is not a phenomenal 5000m runner. He NEVER has been. Otherwise, how could he be only the 6th fastest U.S runner at the distance? Don't give me the mularky about how he simply hasn't had the opportunities to run fast. Don't give me some Ventolin calculator-fueled notions of sub-12:50. It is not going to happen, and I even believe the field may struggle to break 13 minutes here. I am picking the winning time to be 12:56, and it is much more likely to be Rop than Rupp. This is NOT a great field, and Alamirew or Gebremeskel would likely own this group in Monaco. It is going to likely be in the 70-75 degree range and very humid. No sun, of course, but even these weather conditions are not ideal for Galen. I am simply offering the objective analysis which should prepare the unwashed masses for the sobering reality that none of these guys can make a valid run at the U.S. record.
One final point: Lawi Lalang DOES have a chance at sub 13, and I see that the front page mentioned a thread started by somebody who declared about 1.5 years ago that Lalang was superior to Galen Rupp. Well, Lalang will prove it here in Monaco, and the fanboys will realize that Galen's only chance to smell the podium in Moscow is at 10,000m, a sniff which has become rather faint with the presence of Dejen Gebremeskel to strengthen the field, and speaking of sniffs, now let the jock-sniffing fanboys crucify me for being the messenger of truth.
ventolin^3 wrote:
you are clearly clueless
that was canova posting 400s nothing to do with a calculator
all sub-27 guys
go fetch the 57+ listed by him for those guys
where is it ???
Why would I be looking for a 57? That came from your flawed calculator, not me.
Although it's funny how you quote Canova as an authority to support your argument, except for when Canova says 13:10 / 27:00 is a reasonable combo, then he can't be trusted. Sort of like how you justify ridiculous things on your calculator but throw out others.
Doubt it - it's a 1500 not a marathon
he tries to go out in 55+/1'51+ it will damn feel like it's killing him in last lap
[/quote]
And if he goes out in 57 / 1:55, then what?
Tell me this: what if Rudisha did start training so that he could run the 1500? Let's say, hypothetically, he gets into 3:30 shape, which you agree is better than he can do now, but he manages to keep his 45.15 400 speed. Clearly he'll be even better at the 800 in this case. But how much better?
Ready for it?
1:41.68! Most of a second slower!
With equal speed and improved endurance, Rudisha has gotten slower at the 800! How can you not see the flaw in this calculation???
if it says 57+ for a 13'10/27'00 guy, which of the 5k or 10k ones is going to be way wrong as measure of intrinsic ability knowing that canova has not listed anything slower than 54 ???
Which one is wrong, you ask? The 57 is wrong. Ergo the calculator is wrong.
"I believe 27:00 & 13:10 is viable..."
it's not
wow totally valid and thorough point there
the lines of fit currently, sensibly, humanly possible for a 27-flat guy are :
51.0 / 1'47.9 -> 3'32.4 , 7'26.9 , 12'51.9 , 26'57.5
52.0 / 1'49.5 -> 3'34.7 , 7'30.0 , 12'55.3 , 26'59.3
53.0 / 1'51.0 -> 3'36.7 , 7'32.0 , 12'56.4 , 26'55.3
54.0 / 1'52.6 -> 3'39.0 , 7'35.2 , 12'59.8 , 26'57.1
55.0 / 1'54.2 -> 3'41.3 , 7'38.3 , 13'03.2 , 26'58.8
While were at it, I asked you which one Rupp is... Given that he's run 50.x at the end of workouts lately, I guess he's the top one? Because he's ain't runnin no 3:32 or 12:51, I can tell you that much...
you clearly can't think or try to...
Please tell me how, in at least half a dozen good opportunities each, John Cheruiyot Korir and Bernard Kipyego never did better than 13:09 when you claim they were capable of 12:56?
learn to read
it says on the site :
track times to predict track times
road times to predict road times, without even having to be stated that they are all on similar flat roads/wind/etc
You're trying to tell me Hall could run a 59:43 solo in the rain on a hilly course, but couldn't do it on a perfect day with pacers on the track?
Oh, and meanwhile, Kenenisa Bekele's PRs predict a 57:50 half-marathon on your calculator, so don't tell me it's because the track is slower...
And how about Mosop's 1:26:47 for 30,000m? Any line of fit seems unreasonable for that.
rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
Why, because he brought our Rupp's lack of emotional development for the crowd to see?
A Duck is NOT Alberto. Trust me.
Okey dokey, Jerry.
FloTrack Twitter Account is reporting Ben True is now also in the Monaco race. Re-tweeted by True.
He's run two 13:14s and a 13:11 this year, none of which were "ideal" pace situations where he could be in a faster pack and just hang on. 13:05-7 for True?
Haha... I love this line...
"FINALLY, someone who gets it. Rupp will top out as a 3:50 miler, a 12:55+ 5000 runner and a 26:4x 10,000 runner. Not much more to see here."
You say that like its a knock on Rupp. Might as well say:
"FINALLY, someone wgo gets it. Rupp will top out as a top 5 US miler, top 3 US 5000 meter runner, and top 10,000 meter runner with an Olympic silver medal. Not much more to see here other than the best of his generation, arguably the best the US has ever produced, and one of the best in the world while he competed."
If that is so blase, I'm not sure what you're looking for out of a runner.
BTW, with just a few ticks faster in each of those events, you could replace "as a top..." to "the best."
Seems to me your risk is to the downside in your assessment of how good Rupp is.
WhatYo wrote:
Haha... I love this line...
"FINALLY, someone who gets it. Rupp will top out as a 3:50 miler, a 12:55+ 5000 runner and a 26:4x 10,000 runner. Not much more to see here."
Not meant as a knock. Just realism in the face of irrational fanboy optimism. Sometimes the truth hurts.
Rupp will be remembered as one of the best the US has ever seen. On the world elite level, he won't be much recalled outside the US unless he gets to another level. Which I'm predicting won't happen.
He has never won an international race, for one thing. And for the time being, his poor international output makes his OG silver look like an exception. I won't call it a fluke.
SPMBLNPF wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.
Thank you for offering nothing. I have seen Galen run more than you know. The 3:50 is a red herring. Can you not address the thread's topic, instead of expressing your dislike for me? Apparently the answer is no. You disgrace the name with the moniker you utilize.
Good Lord, clearly you don't know what a red herring is, and then you go hurling personal insults to somebody who is probably much better informed than you. Whether Rupp runs sub-13:00 in Monaco or runs a sub-12:55 in his life is irrelevant. Rupp ran 26:48 two years ago, was clearly very fit last year as he ran 12:58 training THROUGH Pre (and beating many Africans who went on to run between 12:46-12:50 later in a European time trial in the process), peaked perfectly for the Olympics, and then carried over his fitness to improve his mile and 3,000 times indoors this year. Alberto said Rupp and Mo were in 12:50 shape at Pre last year (if rested), and who are we to doubt a guy whose athletes won Olympic Gold and Silver, while another protege in Ritz, who "lacks" basic speed, ran 12:56 with this same coach and appears to be rounding into form again, capable of a 10,000 PR? Rupp may never break 12:55 (I think he will), but that certainly doesn't mean he is isn't more than capable of it. I would agree that his clock is ticking though.
It would be hilarious if Rupp was just like F everyone and took it out in like 4:00 for 1600, then just chilled the rest of the race and ran like 13:00. Everyone would be freaking out about how stupid he was and how much he sucked, when they are always complaining how he doesnt go out hard. There is a 1% chance of this ever happening, but id love to see it!
I wanna see rupp just be a major douche in races and like yell and elbow the africans. shoulder em off the track if he wants to. Although if he ever yells at my boy hassan mead again ill find him and break his neck!
the dewpoint will be 69 tonight for the 5000 - I doubt anyone will break 13. maybe one or two kenyans. I can't see any oregonians doing it tho.
Since your only argument as to why Rupp won't run faster than 12:55 is that you declare yourself an expert on ceilings I will go ahead and put myself at your level of intelligence and declare myself an expert of ceilings but actually say Rupp has a ceiling of 12:50.
Now, whether he'll get in the right race in the future or not, that's another thing.
SPMBLNPF wrote:
reed wrote:also, you could have just mentioned the weather earlier. that is a much more reasonable threat to fast times than anybody's ceilings.
Actually, it is not. One's ceiling is directly related to how fast one may run. The weather is a variable, but one's ceiling is absolutely controlling. Weather varies, ceilings do not.
You're an idiot. Nobody has any idea what a runner's "ceiling" is, not even the runner him/herself. You sound like a 3rd-rate sports analyst who has run out of NFL arrests to talk about.
This has simply gotten out of hand. To answer the thread subject, correct no U.S. athlete will break 13 tonight. All the other stuff about Rupp is nonsense. The guy could be a 12:4something runner.
Alberto Stretti has tweeted that there will be two rabbits, with the pace set (at least tentatively, for no one knows what will happen just before the race) at 2:33 and 7:44. Of course, someone will have to go with them. But with the dew point looking to be about 68-69, that's rough sledding.
http://www.albertostretti.org/2013/07/monacodl-livestreaming-worldwide-to-be.html