Leo the Lion vs Kiprop and M Farah in Monaco 1500 - Jenny Simpson as well & Bekele vs. Lagat at 5k.Make your predictions

ukathleticscoach wrote:I sgree with you assesment of how Mo should run the race but you can't run 1:45.9 off 50.0

yes you can if your concomitant endurance ability with 50.0 speed is 26'30/26'35

having that kind of endurance means you slow very little in under-distance races from your basic speed

tergat had unlikely better than mid-52 speed, maybe more like 53.0 & coud run well below 26'30 - ran 13'18/13'09 splits - probably couda run close to 26'20 at even pace

mo has much more speed than a tergat, but not quite the 10k ability - or i'd be surprised if he did

'yes you can if your concomitant endurance ability with 50.0 speed is 26'30/26'35

having that kind of endurance means you slow very little in under-distance races from your basic speed'

Partly true but I would put the maximum differential at 4 seconds. So 49 for 1:46. It aslo does not work for eveyone take a few sub 27 runners and there 400m and 800m times would vary by quite a lot not all getting the maximim 800m time out of there 400m. Sadly they don't run enough of these to really get the accurate data

Also, not all long distance runners types can obtain the 4 second differential because are not concentrating on the 800m and don't know how to run it

no

komen ran a posted 1'47.3tt 1/52 prior to his 7'20

i don't think he had better than about high-50 speed at the time

i get

50.9 / 1'47.2 ->

3'30.18

7'20.61

12'39.23

to

50.8 / 1'47.0 ->

3'29.81

7'19.86

12'37.98

for rieti

komen's 400/800 ratio is only fractionally superior to mo's suggested 50.0/1'45.9

mo is right there with komen if he gets the race & tries

What were his splits?

'3'28.59 !!!

4'44.25

7'19.31

12'39.37

26'32.48'

Well done when will he run 7:19?

I still don't get how someone can run 12.9 for 100m even if it was uphill and do 3:28

ukathleticscoach wrote:Well done

thanks

when will he run 7:19?

had a shot at it today

i'm not him/coach/manager

e-mail them

I still don't get how someone can run 12.9 for 100m even if it was uphill and do 3:28

obviously in 3'28 shape that 12.9 day after having long ago smashed the bullion room...

Care to update the under / over distance projections now that he's actually run 3:28.81 + you have the actual splits he ran to do it?

nikeman wrote:

1) Kiprop 2)Farah 3) Centro 4) Manzano

No AR for Lagat

No sub 13 for Bekele

I think you nailed it!

Great!

if anyone is in interested in a sensible debate rather than innanities, then happy to offer

i looked at the race & mo looks significantly faster than 3'28.8

this really was only the 2nd real elite 1500 of his career - at 30y

( the only other one was his 3'33.9pb from 4y ago, when i'm sure he also put in his best effort, but still that was a 3'33.9 & he was still a semi-serious trainer then ( 13'07pb )

you coud claim this 3'28 was his 1st ever elite, serious 1500 )

this means he wasn't practicised at such fast pace & couda genuinely claim that if he couda run this race again he wouda tweaked various aspects

he went out too fast at 55.0 ( low-3'26 pace ), ran wide in lane in 1st bend running extra distance ( at least 2m, knocking 0.3s off just there for this ), didn't catch-up smoothly enough & despite an exceptional 2'33.6 split at the bell ( 3'29.5 pace ), he'd not put in enough effort in penultimate lap as at 3'29.5 pace there & still managed a 55.2 finish ( 3'27.0 pace ) - he shouda pushed harder from 500 - 600 out as shown in morceli's wr vid

his last lap woud of course been slower than 55.2, but maybe no worse than high-55

also his drafting is poor - he got some on last lap from that kid but lost plenty on 1st lap when running wide, runs lotta the straight upto 700m out wide in lane 2 overtaking - no drafting here & this continues as he's too detached from guy ahead from 700 - 900 out to get any drafting

you gotta figure if he couda re-run it with better pacing ( slower start, earlier push to bell - say from 550 out rather than actual 450 ), run tight lane 1 ( not losing 2+m ) & tucking in better for getting drafting, i have no doubt he couda run in a "perfect" race a hardly outrageous claim of

low-3'28

following on, we need to look for lines of fit with low-3'28

his speed is around 50-flat ( no way 49.5, but maybe fraction under 50.0 ) from his 50.89 lap in that 14'00+

& i still think his 10k is no better than 26'30 ( looking therefore for maybe 26'30/26'35 )

some candidates

( i only bother with 0.1s increments for 400 & 800 otherwise there'd have to be x100 lines for 0.01s ! ) :

49.8 / 1'45.6 ->

3'28.20

4'43.83

7'18.91 !!!

12'39.14

26'33.29

or

49.9 / 1'45.7 ->

3'28.22

4'43.75

7'18.56 !!!

12'38.12

26'29.98

bottom line, he can break 2k/3k wrs ( smash the latter )

the most prestigious of those being the 3k

he really does have a lot in hand over 7'20.67 ( perhaps 2s ) & that's the wr he shoud go for

i generally assumed you have to have the even-paced 4'54 split to stand any chance of it, but mo with maybe 2s in hand overall coud go 4'55 ( maybe not quite 4'56 ) & put in a last 2'25

( probably 60s/lap from 2k - 2600m, to reach bell in 6'25 & finish with a 55 )

i believe he's not chasing the clock in lodon 3k this week, so go for it after moscow

Gotta say props to Ventolin on calling a 3.28. Does this mean El G and Lagat could be cleaner than usually thought if only 1 second and a half ahead of Kiprop? I felt the pace varied a little bit throughout the race and if done a little bit more evenly over the first half the top 2 could be getting close to low 3.27/low 3.28. If we take a few seconds from El G/Lagat prime times etc., would this place Kiprop as WR holder?

I really think Farah should go for the 2k/3k WRs after the WC, if not at the London anniversary games (I guess why kill yourself before the WCs). He says he is more focussed on medals than times, but who could give up a shot at a WR? Sure, the 3k may not be raced much nowadays, but to claim a WR to go with an Olympic double - now that is putting yourself into epic territory. Heck, why not try and get a 2500m record, or 3200m (two mile) world record?!

Hey, vent, I don't pretend to have the depth of knowledge of T&F that you do, but I find it hard to believe that Mo can actually take down a 3000m record that Geb, K Bek and H El G all made serious but unsuccessful attempts at. It seems to me like the key variable in your projection is Mo's 400m speed. I actually would guess he's good for something more like 48.5. Clearly you don't agree, but for the sake of argument, I'd be very curious to see your line of fit for Mo from 800m to 10000m if we assume 48.5 for 400m.

the key is to have an idea of his/any distance guys' potential 400 ( we have good of their 5k or 10k ability, be it 12'40 - 13'00 or 26'30 - 27'00 depending on calibree g - no one seriously doubts mo isn't good for close to 26'30 )his 50.89 finish in his 14'00 was a flying lap, so add ~ 0.75 for this -> 51.64 for open 400you have to guestimate how much fatigue he'd have upto the bell ( not much )obviously likely below 51 for a fresh, open 400, but not muchi think that 49.8/49.9 is fair value, no way 48.5for guidancehttp://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=2

these guys are elite & fastest quoted is 51.5 for kemboi ( similar for merga )

mo is going to be faster, but not by much ( he is a 5k/10k guy not a 800/1500 one )

~ 50-flat looks much, more likely for him than 48.5s

48.5 with close to 26'30 is humanly impossible ( for current humans ! )

48.5 / 1'43.6 ! ->

3'25.47 !!

4'40.81

7'15.70 !!

12'36.56

26'35.62

to

48.5 / 1'43.5 ! ->

3'25.12 !!!

4'40.23

7'14.61 !!!

12'34.28

26'29.81

these are not feasible for mo or any other human

Wait, so this is the post that Ventolin keeps crowing about where he says he predicted Mo's 3:28? Is everyone else blind, his guess was 3:30 here. Read the first sentence. He also threw out 3:29 & 3:28 as bonus guesses, giving himself a wide possible range.

err...

learn to read

the predictor/calculator said as fast as

3'28.59

i was shocked it gave such a number as i wasn't expecting it to predict so quick

there was no way i was expecting mo to make the hard effort & go thru in 2'33

i expected him to run fairly hard to bell in ~ 2'36, likely some way down, even if race was quick & blast a last 400 for ~ 3'30

i didn't expect him to actually believe he coud win & so made the effort to follow a quick pace, when he wouda been lot closer to asbel at bell if he hadn't jogged first coupla 100m & ran a straight, solo, out in lane 2 !

bottom line :

3'28.59

was posted on the board before the race

ventolin^3 wrote:

bottom line :

3'28.59

was posted on the board before the race

And so was 3:30 and 3:29.75. That's basically a 3-second range - 3:30.99 to 3:28.00. Anything in there and you could have claimed you nailed it. As it was you said 3:30 twice, that was your primary pick.

It's all right there in black and white, you can't re-write history to pretend 3:28 was your guess. It was 3:30.

1) Kiprop- 3:27

2) Leo- 3:30 low

3) Centro- 3:30 mid

Lagat, no AR, are you kidding me? He's still fast for his age, but I'm not seeing at 12:53... His 13:06 from last year is far from a 12:53, those 13 seconds are huge, just ask Galen Rupp... However, I still have him getting a medal next year for Worlds, because of his excellent tactics... I say a 13:04 next year at Monaco for him...

Bekele- I say 12:59

Farah will drop the hammer w/ two to go and take the win in 12:51, Bekele falls off the back at 12:59, but hey, that ain't bad for a 10k, HM, Marathon guy

caller of BS wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

bottom line :

3'28.59

was posted on the board before the race

And so was 3:30 and 3:29.75. That's basically a 3-second range - 3:30.99 to 3:28.00. Anything in there and you could have claimed you nailed it. As it was you said 3:30 twice, that was your primary pick.

It's all right there in black and white, you can't re-write history to pretend 3:28 was your guess. It was 3:30.

You're an idiot.

The time depended on Mo's 400 ability, which obviously no one could know for certain since he hadn't run one.

Slight variations in 400 ability make a big difference as the race distance increases.

He gave 2 ranges based on concurrent 400/800 ability. One of them was just about dead on accurate.