Ritz is super fit and needs a fast race from the gun to win... Not sure how the heat will factor in here.
As a Ritz fan, I'm not feeling too good about this one:(
Most likely, they will walk through 5k in 14:20ish and the real running wont start until 9k or so; too late for Ritz to runaway from the others.
If the weather permits, I say Ritz should go out and run 66 second laps and then hammer the last 3 k.
There are only 5 with the world standard and honestly one spot open. Rupp, Ritz and ?. True might have trouble in the heat. Derrick is the odds for 3 but I would love to see Vail get it. He doesn't have the A so it won't matter anyway. They should just run a 5 man race.
Bleu wrote:
There are only 5 with the world standard and honestly one spot open. Rupp, Ritz and ?. True might have trouble in the heat. Derrick is the odds for 3 but I would love to see Vail get it. He doesn't have the A so it won't matter anyway. They should just run a 5 man race.
Last year several ran the "A" in the trials.
Like Last Year wrote:
I suspect that Rupp will help Ritz set the pace again. Last year it was to make sure Ritz got the A. This time, the goal will be to drop either Derrick and/or True.
Prediction:
Rupp, Derrick, Ritz.
Bingo.
Ritz knows he's in the best shape he's been in in years, and he wants this bad.
He also knows his only good shot to beat out both Derrick and True is to take it out very hard.
To do it by himself might be suicide, but he doesn't have to, because he's got his teammate GR to drag him along.
Galen knows he'll likely have to run quite fast anyway (I'm sure he figures he's got to be ready to go 27 flat, or fairly close to it, to be safe), so he won't be unwilling to take it out hard to aid Ritzie.
Everyone keeps talking about the weather, but the forecast is actually pretty benign (low-70s, modest humidity and breeze). If that holds, the weather won't be much of a factor.
Assuming Galen's okay, and Pre was an aberration, and the weather's pretty mild, this will be a very fast race.
Nothing like the 'tactical affair' most people have been talking about for the last couple months.
It'll look a lot like Trials last year, but a good bit faster.
Galen and Ritzie take it out at 64/65, and trade leads on the way to a 13:30.
Derrick and True sit on them, and a couple others (Curtis? Braun?) get sucked along, figuring they've probably got nothing to lose.
Then it gets really interesting.
Who can hang on to that train?
With luck, the Big Four hold together to 4200, and then we get an absolute Battle to the Death in the last 800.
And, of course, if it *does* play out like this, there's always the chance that one or even two of the big boys crash and burn, and one of the 'B' team gets a chance to sneak in for third.
I'm looking for a truly Epic race.
If the USATF doesn't find a way to make sure people can watch this, they should all be fired for crimes against the Sport.
lol @ the True fanboys congregating to this thread. He may win a couple of Yarmouth Clam Festival races in Maine, but he has NO chance in a trials race like this. NONE.
Rupp is a lock to win. Remember how he walked down the Bekele bros last summer? He will annihilate this field.
Ritz and Derrick shall be 2nd and 3rd (though not necessarily in that order).
Emil C wrote:
lol @ the True fanboys congregating to this thread. He may win a couple of Yarmouth Clam Festival races in Maine, but he has NO chance in a trials race like this. NONE.
Rupp is a lock to win. Remember how he walked down the Bekele bros last summer? He will annihilate this field.
Ritz and Derrick shall be 2nd and 3rd (though not necessarily in that order).
Idiotic comment.
Of course he has a chance. He has an excellent chance.
Like I said, all three guys appear to have near-identical fitness right now, and the last time True raced Chris, he kicked his butt.
The three of them are just about dead even going in.
Anybody saying any of the three has 'no shot' is an idiot.
Montesquieu wrote:
You should add that Ritz crushed Braun in the 5 at Oxy. But to the prediction: I'm going out on the limb as far as I can: I think Ritz will win, with Rupp second and Derrick third. Ritz has looked spectacular in his two outdoor races at 5000, and physically he has never looked fitter. It will be an odd race, with Ritz pushing ahead with 2k to go.
Montesquieu, normally I agree with you and you are very accurate in your forecasting. Moreover, I hope Ritz wins, because I think this is his last shot at a WC or Olympic team on the track. However, he has the "oldest" legs in the legitimate field, next to Teg. Fair enough, he is a veteran, seemingly getting it done when he has to, but Derrick has gained a lot of confidence beating him twice. And, if there's any kind of wind up at the end, as long as one other guy can hang, Ritz might get nipped. True, Rupp has no need to win this race, but nobody does, and nobody had the need to beat anyone else at Pre. Ritz seemed to be the only one on form in that race, and he still lost to Derrick (sick) and Rupp (dazed and confused). So, he is vulnerable here. But, True doesn't seem to have the experience at the distance, and he has had a long season, so I don't know if he is timing his peak right. That leaves Braun and Vail. It will be really interesting. I still think the obvious choice is Rupp, Derrick, Ritz in some combination, but something tells me the obvious doesn't hold this time around.
Thanks for the kind words, and I realize I'm probably the only semi-sane person who posts here who genuinely thinks that Ritz will win. However, had I suggested that Ritz had a good chance to beat Rupp at Pre, no one would have taken that particularly seriously. But if one looks at the last 800 of that race and sees that Ritz made two tactical mistakes that surely cost him a decent amount of energy, one will realize that Ritz could have beaten him. As it is, he lost by only .84. That's pretty striking. I think Ritz's 13:09 in that race shows that he is approaching sub 13 once again. The last time he was there was 2009, his last healthy track season, when he dominated Rupp in Berlin (a warm weather race, where Ritz came in sixth and beat four sub 27 guys) and broke the American record in the 5, in what is still a faster PR than Rupp. When Ritz ran that, Salazar and Ritz both thought he was in sub 27 shape. Ritz was great on the track in 2009 and he's only now approaching that form after four long years. Yes, he has older legs, but yes, he has been hurt so much, they might not be beaten up as much as someone who remained healthy. Ritz's problem is that although he can close a 5 in 3:00-01, he doesn't seem to be able to close faster than 58. I'm thinking the 10 in Des Moines is going to be a strange race and that at some point outside of 1k, Ritz is going to get away. In any case, he makes the team.
Sagarin wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:You should add that Ritz crushed Braun in the 5 at Oxy. But to the prediction: I'm going out on the limb as far as I can: I think Ritz will win, with Rupp second and Derrick third. Ritz has looked spectacular in his two outdoor races at 5000, and physically he has never looked fitter. It will be an odd race, with Ritz pushing ahead with 2k to go.
Montesquieu, normally I agree with you and you are very accurate in your forecasting. Moreover, I hope Ritz wins, because I think this is his last shot at a WC or Olympic team on the track. However, he has the "oldest" legs in the legitimate field, next to Teg. Fair enough, he is a veteran, seemingly getting it done when he has to, but Derrick has gained a lot of confidence beating him twice. And, if there's any kind of wind up at the end, as long as one other guy can hang, Ritz might get nipped. True, Rupp has no need to win this race, but nobody does, and nobody had the need to beat anyone else at Pre. Ritz seemed to be the only one on form in that race, and he still lost to Derrick (sick) and Rupp (dazed and confused). So, he is vulnerable here. But, True doesn't seem to have the experience at the distance, and he has had a long season, so I don't know if he is timing his peak right. That leaves Braun and Vail. It will be really interesting. I still think the obvious choice is Rupp, Derrick, Ritz in some combination, but something tells me the obvious doesn't hold this time around.
Sagarin - have you seen the trailer for the new movie about Wesley Korir? You have written admiringly about him, right?
In a cool rain with Ritz needing the standard. Iowa will be hot.
Emil C wrote:
Rupp is a lock to win. Remember how he walked down the Bekele bros last summer? He will annihilate this field.
If so, I will pay you a buck. However, I think there will be an upset...
Bleu wrote:
There are only 5 with the world standard and honestly one spot open. Rupp, Ritz and ?. True might have trouble in the heat. Derrick is the odds for 3 but I would love to see Vail get it. He doesn't have the A so it won't matter anyway. They should just run a 5 man race.
You only need the B if you finish in the top 3 ahead of every other person who only has the B. If Vail gets 3rd behind Rupp and Ritz, he goes to Worlds.
agip wrote:
Sagarin - have you seen the trailer for the new movie about Wesley Korir? You have written admiringly about him, right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2CZHFxoZaM&feature=youtu.be
"You're chasing something that's not visible. You have to have a lot of faith and hope that you're going to get there..."
Thanks for putting this up agip. Wesley is larger than life. Running is simply a means to a much greater end. We would all do good to follow his example. Can't wait for the movie.
Montesquieu wrote:
Thanks for the kind words, and I realize I'm probably the only semi-sane person who posts here who genuinely thinks that Ritz will win. However, had I suggested that Ritz had a good chance to beat Rupp at Pre, no one would have taken that particularly seriously. But if one looks at the last 800 of that race and sees that Ritz made two tactical mistakes that surely cost him a decent amount of energy, one will realize that Ritz could have beaten him. As it is, he lost by only .84. That's pretty striking. I think Ritz's 13:09 in that race shows that he is approaching sub 13 once again. The last time he was there was 2009, his last healthy track season, when he dominated Rupp in Berlin (a warm weather race, where Ritz came in sixth and beat four sub 27 guys) and broke the American record in the 5, in what is still a faster PR than Rupp. When Ritz ran that, Salazar and Ritz both thought he was in sub 27 shape. Ritz was great on the track in 2009 and he's only now approaching that form after four long years. Yes, he has older legs, but yes, he has been hurt so much, they might not be beaten up as much as someone who remained healthy. Ritz's problem is that although he can close a 5 in 3:00-01, he doesn't seem to be able to close faster than 58. I'm thinking the 10 in Des Moines is going to be a strange race and that at some point outside of 1k, Ritz is going to get away. In any case, he makes the team.[quote]Sagarin wrote:
Yep, can't really refute you here. Pre was physical and Ritz made some tactical blunders because of how crowded it was. Rupp, Ritz, and Derrick are all sub-27:30 guys and probably much faster. That's the kind of shape someone is going to have to be in to beat these guys. Someone might. Ritz does look awesome though.
Barring some unforeseen event, I think Rupp wins (hard to go against an Olympic silver medalist and especially with that workout he just put up in Provo), Derrick takes second, and Ritz had better hope he's clear with 600 to go or he's vulnerable. That's likely your team, but I'm not counting Braun out if he executes the perfect race.
Is that correct? I thought regardless the A goes even if he loses to a B.
Yes, that's correct and you have it wrong. Here's the best description of the criteria determining who qualifies for Moscow:http://www.runnersworld.com/elite-runners/who-will-be-on-us-team-for-world-championships
Bleu wrote:
Is that correct? I thought regardless the A goes even if he loses to a B.
JR wants to think Rupp may not make the team. Rupp is 34-45 seconds faster than the next best competitor.
This is true in actual terms:
26:48
27:22
27:31
27:48
And in projected terms:
say...
26:35
27:10
27:15
27:20
Not only that, he can jog this race and run his last 400m faster than True, Derrick, or Ritz could run in an open 400m.
What if Nike is paying Tegenkamp to rabbit the race? A faster race would probably suit the three Nike guys better than Ben True right?
jus saingg wrote:
Teg is not running at all. He is going to run in the USA 1/2 Marathon Champs 2 days later in Minn.
Indeed: Teg doesn't run the 10k.