Ben Saarel --- The next U.S. sub 13?

5kays wrote:

ryan hall ran 4:02.62 in high school - he never made it under 13.

verzbicas ran 3:59....he don't run no more

german fernandez....nuff said

list goes on and on and on and on....

the biggest problem i have with distance runners is the speculation. "who's going to run what time in the future?" "what's little johnny going to run at his meet today based on what he's been running at other meets?"

what a waste of time and energy that never turns out to be true.

rojo wrote:http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/

That is what being a fan of sports is mostly about, predicting an athletes potential or future accomplishments. That is what makes sports fun and exciting. You make a prediction then have a little something at stake in watching an athlete perform. It gives you a reason to hope and cheer.

The predictions turned out to be true for Ritz.

This is a pretty good thread. I really agree about the foot speed being a huge factor in a champion runner. Most elite track championship races at 800m to 10k are won by east Africans in the last 75 meters or so,...on great foot speed.

Saarel is only running 65 miles a week. He's gonna rock at CU and he's really gonna like his coaches and teammates. They're like a family.

Next sub 13 club inductees

Good Chance

1) Lomong-has the talent should be there soon

2) Jager-only thing in his way is to much focus on the steeple but I think he will still throw down on a fast 5k at some point

3)True-I think he'll get there too but Jager will get there first

Out side chance someday

4) Webb-I know he's a long shot but he always had the talent so it's possible

5) Derrick- Shown he has the talent but he's a 12:58 life time guy so it may or may not happen

6) Leer- I know he's a ways away but he has shown some talent this year if he has another couple years of solid improvement it could happen.

Probably not

Centro: He is a great athlete and a brilliant tactician but I don't think he has the distance in him. Unless he converts to a straight 5k guy (and soon)he won't do it.

Fernandez: He has a lot of talent but seems to have been "burnt" by one long season several years ago. I know talent doesn't go away but I think you can break your body and never really recover.

Saarel: Who knows, its way to early to say but him going to Wetmore doesn't seem like a great thing to me. Wetmore is always a crap shoot for long term success due to this focus on long hard runs. He makes strong not particularly fast runners. While many of his runners have had successful careers only Ritz has had success on the world level and his is modest at best. Also almost all of Ritz's best performances have come under other coaches. I have no doubt that Saarel will win (or get second to a fast Kenyan) many NCAA titles and be a multi All American but we have no idea whether it will be anything more than that.

I agree with you that it is truthfully too early to tell, but the potential certainly is there.

But where do you get that Wetmore is ALWAYS a crap shoot? All great coaches have had their share of runners who excelled and who didn't.

Look at what he has to work with!!!!! He's not getting NEAR the blue chip recruits like Oregon or Stanford. What he's doing is amazing! Wake up!

IUY wrote:

I agree with you that it is truthfully too early to tell, but the potential certainly is there.

But where do you get that Wetmore is ALWAYS a crap shoot? All great coaches have had their share of runners who excelled and who didn't.

Look at what he has to work with!!!!! He's not getting NEAR the blue chip recruits like Oregon or Stanford. What he's doing is amazing! Wake up!

My apologies maybe crap shoot was to harsh a term. I agree that the has produced some very successful runners and done so on a regular basis. My point was more to the fact that he has only coached two runners who have truly done anything on a world level (Ritz & Jenny) both of whom were being coached by someone else at the time. I agree he has taken some mediocre talent and done great things with it. The crap shoot lies in the fact that he essentially runs all his athletes to the ragged edge of injury and those that survive do well. Those that don't nurse injuries, you probably don't know all the names of those who have fallen in the wake of the CU program but my guess is there are a lot. I don't think I'm the only one on this board who has wondered what Ritz would have done had he gone to another coach from the start. Maybe nothing but maybe he would have had a more injury free career and been able to harness his immense talent with out spending several seasons nursing injuries.

My apologies maybe crap shoot was to harsh a term. I agree that the has produced some very successful runners and done so on a regular basis. My point was more to the fact that he has only coached two runners who have truly done anything on a world level (Ritz & Jenny) both of whom were being coached by someone else at the time. I agree he has taken some mediocre talent and done great things with it. The crap shoot lies in the fact that he essentially runs all his athletes to the ragged edge of injury and those that survive do well. Those that don't nurse injuries, you probably don't know all the names of those who have fallen in the wake of the CU program but my guess is there are a lot. I don't think I'm the only one on this board who has wondered what Ritz would have done had he gone to another coach from the start. Maybe nothing but maybe he would have had a more injury free career and been able to harness his immense talent with out spending several seasons nursing injuries.[/quote]

Thanks for the acknowledgement on the "crapshoot" thing.

To be a champion athlete you HAVE to push your body and mind to then "ragged edge" as you say. Might you get injured in doing this? Yes you may. As an athlete truly striving to be the best, you run this risk.

Now is Wetmore any better or worse than other coaches as far as having injured runners? Hmm I don't know.But if even if you are right and only those that survive his program do well, than Wetmore has done his job and done it well!

He then has pushed all those with champion capability to the championship level. Those who couldn't handle it got injured and obliviously didn't have the physical sturdiness for championship level athletics, but they have the peace of mind knowing that really left it all out there and worked their hardest and did their ABSOLUTE best. That's worth something. This is not an exact science.

Let me ask you the reverse.....What if Ritz would had under trained all these years and NEVER got injured? Would he even have made the Olympic team, been an NCAA Champion ect?

Bubbadeeboo wrote:

Agreed. Centro wasn't too remarkable in ncaa XC... But, I wouldn't be surprised if AlSal turns a 3:31 1500 runner into a sub 13 guyin 4+ years.

Centro was very solid in NCAA XC. If memory serves he finished top 25ish a few times.

rojo wrote:

skeptic scot wrote:

What makes anybody think Centro has a shot?? I love the kid, but he hasn't show any type of endurance near that level

1) He was the nation's best 2 miler as a prep. He ran 8:41.55 for the full 2 miles - six seconds better than Jager in that race.

2) His father was the former American record holder in the event after first being known as a 1500 guy. His dad broke Pre's Oreogn 1,500 school record by running 3:36 and made US olympic teams at 1500 in 1976 and 1980 but set the 5000 record in 1982 at 13:12.91.

These are the correct answers. Centro Sr. ran 13:12 and was US champ 3 times, while being built a bit like a linebacker and being big boned. They have completely different body types.

His 8:41.55 was more impressive to me than his hs 1600 pr.

Currious wrote:

1) Derrick - has steadily improved. Guessing lifetime PR of 12:56 (same as Ritz)

2) Centrowitz - 12:59; 3:31, 10th at NCAA cross, 8:41 2-mile in HS

3) Bumbalough - 13:05; ran 8:13 2-mile this winter and has been 4th in 5000 USAs last three years. Has seemed a little off lately but is still young.

4) Jager - 13:06; trouble with injuries, focus on steeple, but huge potential as always

5) True - 13:07; has been on fire lately but how long will it last? Oldest of the bunch and biggest. I think his focus will be more on the 10,000. I think he thrives more on tough conditions so people are giving too much adjustment for his cross and recent 5000 performance

Jager just said a few days ago that he finally had his first good real speed work out...in 3 years!!!

DC Trainer wrote:

Saarel has great potential -- hope he keeps progressing, and has no interest in triathlons! Sorry but I'm still p.o. that LV didn't stick to running.

As for Centro, I just don't see sub-13 in his personality. He seems to want to do the 1,500 as a glamour event. Maybe when he gets a bit older his perspective may change, but I don't see him wanting to excel in the 5,000 as in the 1,500.

If you don't want it more than anything, I don't see how anyone can achieve something like sub-13.

A "glamour event?" lol. Centro runs the 1500 simply because it is what he is best at. He likes a shot at winning. It's that simple.

5kays wrote:

ryan hall ran 4:02.62 in high school - he never made it under 13.

verzbicas ran 3:59....he don't run no more

german fernandez....nuff said

list goes on and on and on and on....

the biggest problem i have with distance runners is the speculation. "who's going to run what time in the future?" "what's little johnny going to run at his meet today based on what he's been running at other meets?"

what a waste of time and energy that never turns out to be true.

rojo wrote:http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/

Yeah, predicting times can be dubious business. But there are enough good guys under 13:20 right now that it is exciting to speculate on who could be next under 13.

I think the mile is his best distance

A Duck wrote:

Currious wrote:

1) Derrick - has steadily improved. Guessing lifetime PR of 12:56 (same as Ritz)

2) Centrowitz - 12:59; 3:31, 10th at NCAA cross, 8:41 2-mile in HS

3) Bumbalough - 13:05; ran 8:13 2-mile this winter and has been 4th in 5000 USAs last three years. Has seemed a little off lately but is still young.

4) Jager - 13:06; trouble with injuries, focus on steeple, but huge potential as always

5) True - 13:07; has been on fire lately but how long will it last? Oldest of the bunch and biggest. I think his focus will be more on the 10,000. I think he thrives more on tough conditions so people are giving too much adjustment for his cross and recent 5000 performance

Jager just said a few days ago that he finally had his first good real speed work out...in 3 years!!!

All of them certainly have the potential to be great. But Jager is proven over the 1500 and steeple and 5,000. He could probably rock any of the distances, and I have no doubt that he could go sub-13 this year IF that was his focus. 13:14 in an early season debut is nothing to sneeze at.

As for those saying that Ritz is the only Olympian to come from Wetmore, I give you Culpepper, Goucher, Nelson, Torres, Simpson, Coburn, Kipp and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few. Some of them made the Olympic team under his tutelage, while others ultimately left, but they laid much of their foundation under Wetmore. Saarel will be fine if he stays healthy.

Jager's 5000 PR is basically the same as True's (set in same race losing to him) and 2 seconds faster than Bumbalough's (set very early season 2 or 3 years ago) and I don't believe his 1500 PR is any faster than theirs. I get that he's younger, but I still don't see anything from him that indicates he could definitely break 13 in the 5000 this year whereas the others could not. I think he could run 13:08ish, as could Bumbi and True. Centro is a wild card. Derrick I think is faster and will put up a big time or place at Pre.

This will end up either the most prophetic or most laughable post in LRC history.

If Teg can go sub 13, I'd bet given the right race Jager could very realistically go sub 13 sometime in the next few years. Provided he stays healthy.Not a good question, of course he has the potential, but then again Fernandez was a 1500 champ, a 23:20 8k guy, and a 13:25 5k guy his freshmen year and there is no way he is going sub even though he was a sure bet as any to break 13 4 years ago.

Recognizer of Brilliance wrote:

RuppNation wrote:

True - will go 13:0x in his career but will never go under 13

Derrick - shows potential and may do it within the next few years

Bumbalough - yeah right... next

Jager - too busy running steeple but would never go sub 13 anyways

Centrowitz - unknown at the moment

This ^ is right on.

Derrick is a 50-50 bet. I doubt any of the others will ever go sub-13.

don't put the cart before horse

Four years ago, people might have been saying the same thing about Matt Tebo.

Ryan Hall could have obviously gone below 13 if he had not focused on the marathon where he went below 2:05 (tantamount to well under 13). Your comment on Verzbicas is shallow and pre-mature. German was great once, and it is not nuff said to diss his future.

ryan hall ran 4:02.62 in high school - he never made it under 13.

verzbicas ran 3:59....he don't run no more

german fernandez....nuff said

The predictions turned out to be true for Ritz.