Post OFFICIAL Mary Cain 5,000-meter Predictions HERE

15:26

15:38 so that I have at least one PR that is faster than her (at least until she races again)

alanson wrote:

16:00.00

By the USTFCCCA conversion factors, her 9:38.68 two mile converts to 15:41.23

Her 9:02.10 3k converts to 15:52.28

15:48.91 is apparently the American HS record (Emily Sisson), so by a simple conversion of Cain's recent times she could be challenging that record.

However, I think she's only run 5000 a few times and only in cross country, most recently at the NXN final where she lost to Sarah Baxter by about 4 seconds. Baxter seems to be able to run about a 16 flat 5k. That's about what I would expect from Cain in a 5k right now, relatively a bit slower than her 3k. I think she's better adapted to the shorter distances.

Oh? You don't think she's improved at all since cross country season?

So she's still at 2:03 800 & 4:11 1500 then? Look I get it. Saying Cain will run 15:20 is ridiculous, but saying she will run over 16 is even more ridiculous. So what Baxter beat her in XC. Cain would demolish Baxter on the track at any distance from 3k to 5k. If moser, who cain beat by a second indoors over 3k can open up at 5k in 15:11, why can't Cain run 15:20?

15:24.26

Well the HS record is going down for sure. How much is the question. I think she's good for 15:35 but she likes to hang and race with the big dogs. If its a fast race I can see her taking it in hard and running closer to low 15:20s

15:29.75

Where can I post my unofficial prediction? It's not quite official yet

YEAH BUDDY wrote:

Where can I post my unofficial prediction? It's not quite official yet

Just post it here so I can write it down on my unofficial list. I'll hang it in my cubicle

15:09. Yeah that seems too fast, but look at how she has been progressing.

15:22.48. While I think shes just as good (if not better) as Treniere Moser currently is who just ran 15:11, Moser's still been in the game a lot longer, and from what I can tell this is Cain's first track 5k ever, and they're DEFINITELY different the XC 5ks. Give her another few chances and I think she'll be a force to reckon with in the event (like she is in almost any event above 800m at the moment...)

i think some people are a little overestimating her. You can't compare her to the pro's she is racing against in the 1500 or even in that 2 mile who have many more years and miles in their legs than she does. The reason why people will often move up after high school is because as the years go by they gain more endurance rather than just the speed they had in high school. Obviously she's got great strength since she ran 9:38i, but don't expect her 5000 to be nearly as good as a 4:04 since she is 17, training for 1500, and this is her first track 5k ever. Still, she is ridiculous and I fully expect a 15:4x 5k HSR out of her. maaaaaaybe in the 15:30's.

15:19.8

it depends on her competition, as she is a racer. last year it was won in 15:28. So, if that is the level of the competition, 15:25 is reasonable. With better competition, she can get the A standard, around 15:15. She's far ahead of where she was indoors. I like the way that Salazar's athletes go for fast times at a range of distances when they are in shape, snapping up the records, unlike Jerry's boys, most of whom race rarely and do not vary the distances much. It's more fun this way for us and them.

Speaking of Jerry's boys, are they going to race here again to try for more A standards? I was surprised to see only one American at Reebok in a fast 5000m field, Ben True.

12:59 you heard it here first

15:27.5

she's in great shape, but ready for a 5000? probably not quite. she still has wheels to crush any high schooler at the distance, and i can't imagine her being within reach of sarah baxter anymore (maybe at cross country, baxter is pretty tough and may be among the best all time next year but cain is in a class of her own and even then i can't really see her losing).

cain's improved tremendously over cross country when she was likely in mid to low 4:10s 1500 shape at best, and keep in mind that cross country is so far distanced from her main events that she was at a huge disadvantage. add in that it was effectively a swimming pool at nxn and it's amazing that she was capable of staying with a light, aerobic beast in baxter. but on the track, cain is in her element, so don't look for anything slower than 15:40.

my guess would be in the mid 15:20s (say 15:26.xx) although i could see anything from 15:16 to 15:34.

15:47 Let's see if she can beat my PR in HS.

15:22:12

15:29