Saugus at Arcadia, WOW!

Keeping it real wrote:

Typical. You put out incorrect (way off) statistical info, get called on it, then try to distort the message with a typical flub response. If you're going to reference stats, then get them correct (or at least be in the ballpark and note that), rather than be way off at the beginning, then try to hide/misdirect from that with a meandering post later.

How did I distort the message?

So, please, read the posts again, and please inform me.

I said about a dozen. I didn't even think to consider tiny meets that might feature them, because they aren't going to include hardly any national caliber programs and so aren't going to have any impact on the national leaderboard. If you want to call me out on that minor part (including a generalized number) without taking into consideration the above, then fair enough I suppose. But you called out my post in its entirety, and my reputation in its entirety, so if we're going to be fair you're going to have to back up that response in equal measure.

Example -

Meet A runs the 2k Steeple. The meet includes teams that has a grand total of three runners capable of running 4:40-5:00 for 1600m. One of those runners also runs the 1600m just 70 minutes before the steeple, and another the 800m just 40 minutes before the steeple. When the results come in, the steeplers run 6:30, 6:35, and 6:40. All US Top-5 marks at that point in time.

Two weeks later, Meet B features half a dozen national caliber distance or mid-distance programs. Among the many events contested is the 2k Steeple. Three runners run 6:15-6:20, and another 6:25. Also run in the meet is a 4:14 mile, and a 14:55 5k.

6:30 is still US Top-10. 4:14 is not US Top-10, and neither is 14:55.

Does that mean the 6:30 for 2k Steeple is more impressive than the 4:14 mile or 14:55 5k? And does that necessarily mean that the 6:20 or 6:25 steeple is more impressive than the 4:14 mile or 14:55 5k?

No on all accounts. How often the event is contested - and what I neglected to even consider mentioning earlier, how often nationally relevant athletes/teams compete in the event - effects how strong a US Top-X ranking is.

I think the points I mentioned about Saugus, about the 4x1600 in general, and Arcadia in particular, still stands very valid. Despite your insults.

flirp wrote:

Less common than the 5K and 10K? Last I checked, HS almost never runs the 5K at meets and I don't know one HS meet with a 10K.

I said less common than the 5k but probably more common than the 10k.

There are opportunities for high schoolers to run 10k's in open races at several meets, plus they have it at USATF Juniors.

There are not a lot of 5k opportunities around, just like there aren't a lot of 4x1600 and 4xMile opportunities around. That's why I listed them in comparison. Though there aren't many of either, I know of more that have 5ks than have 4xMile or 4x1600's. Arcadia was even one of them for a couple years, offering both events.

I lost track of this thread a couple of days ago. Where did we land? Is it good or bad to have 8 girls averaging 5:10?

webby wrote:

I lost track of this thread a couple of days ago. Where did we land? Is it good or bad to have 8 girls averaging 5:10?

I don't think anyone ever said it was bad to have 8 girls averaging 5:10.

More, it wasn't a surprise (to me at least, though it sounds like I might be in the minority) that a program like Saugus had 8 girls that could average 5:10.

I think Saugus having 8 girls averaging 5:10 is a surprise because this isn't the great teams from '08-'11. You're right though watchout, it shouldn't be a surprise because Saugus' most impressive feat over the last few years has been its ability to rebuild year to year. Anyone know the 8 girl's splits by chance?

Since you asked, let’s take a look at your post:

Watchout:

How can I say it's rarely run? Becuse it IS rarely run.

What, about a dozen meets run it? Mostly in California? And only two or so of those meets, besides Arcadia, has been held so far this year?

ACG:

Only two or so have been held this year? As was pointed out, at least 17 have been run in California alone. You backpedal later by stating you were only talking about major meets.

I believe the Florida Relays includes a high school 4x1600. The Texas Relays has included a high school race but doesn’t seem to do so currently. How many other national relay meets include high school 4x1600s or the equivalent? I think it’s more than you think.

If you’re going to count opportunities to run 5000s and 10000s at open meets, then you could add in the opportunities to run 4x1600s/miles/1500s at relay meets throughout the US.

The boys national records in the 4x1600 and 4xmile were set in Texas and Oregon. The girls 4x1500 and 4xmile were set in Oregon and Maryland (I believe).

Watchout:

To review my point: their top team, while good, didn't run an All-Time type performance, and saying that a team is in the top X in the nation so far at a rarely run event doesn't really say much about the performance.

You really don't think other teams might have run better if they didn't also run the 4x800? and had everyone in the race? 800 runners can often (though not always) make good milers, if you didn't know... and in case you don't get it, splitting your top 6 athletes into TWO races (or more, with the SMR's included) isn't going to be as good as putting your top 4 athletes into ONE race. Especially if you don't have dozens of national caliber athletes to work with.

ACG:

This repeats your misstatement about rarely run, which allows you to dismiss a statement about the performance.

Which of the top teams ran both the 4x800 and the 4x1600 at Arcadia? You state this as if it’s a fact but provide no examples. Of those that ran both, which actually attempted to be competitive in both?

Watchout:

Yes, of course population does matter: The best 4 athletes out of 2,000 people are, in general, going to be better than the best 4 athletes out of 20 people. Plus, having more teammates means more training partners, etc. ... that's why smaller schools don't often do as well in team sports as bigger schools (e.g., in California, most of the best teams and runners often come from Division 1/2/3 rather than Division 4/5)

ACG:

Already pointed out that you don’t seem to know much about the sizes of schools that do well in team sports in California.

Watchout:

Lack of sub-20's: It's early enough in the season, and doesn't include many of the top programs outside of CA/WA/NV/AZ/UT, so it's not all that surpising that there hasn't been a sub-20 yet (though I do agree there have been teams capable of it under the right circumstances). I think the average winner could probably be something like 20:15-20:20 though if more of the top California programs started loading up on it, with occassional sub-20:10's.

ACG:

You state this as if good teams have routinely run sub-20:00. I couldn’t find the all-time list, but I believe only a handful of girls teams have run sub-20:00. Pretty sure that 20:10 is in or near the top 10 all time.

Watchout:

Back to my point -

There are programs out there who could probably run 19:40's or faster (e.g. GPS , FM ... GPS's indoor season bests this year adds up to 19:30.36 and their PR's 19:16.64, for example). And also others that could have 'B' teams sub-20:50, especially if it isn't their #5-8 runners. Not many, but they are out there. A US Top-5 type program like Saugus managing it shouldn't surprise anyone.

ACG:

Adding PRs and actually running close to those PRs in the same race are two different things.

How many teams have ever had eight girls average 5:10 in relay races on the same day? I’m going to guess one.

How many teams have ever had eight girls average 5:10 on the same day in open and relay races? I’m going to guess a few, but I don’t know of any that have ever done so besides Saugus.

Stating that teams could do something, that B teams could perform at a similar level is easy. The teams actually performing at that level is another thing altogether.

It looks like Great Oak ran 3rd in the 4x800 and 6th in the 4x1600 using virtually the same runners. Not sure it would have moved them up though if they would have just run the 4x1600 looking at who the other teams had anchoring. I did see on Twitter where the Great Oak coach said one of his freshman girls in the seeded race ran a 5:06 on the anchor, so maybe they improve if she was on their a team, but I didn't check their team's splits closely.

Is Aptos a one hit wonder or are they good evey year?

One of Saugus' sophomore girls in the seeded race ran 5:01 on the anchor, the fastest among the eight girls that ran the two relays at Arcadia on Friday night.

I don't understand how people can say a 5:01 girl in the invite wouldn't have made a difference. Saugus would have won by a comfortable margin with that girl anchoring their A team.

Excerpt 1 - Florida Relays does not include a high school 4x1600m. Here is a link to those results:

http://www.deltatiming.com/results/events_byschedule.aspx?yf=2013&mf=2013-florida-relays

If you don't want to bother looking, I'll tell you the events similar to it that they have: the 4x800 (standard event in Florida) and DMR.

Even the Penn Relays does not include the 4x1600 or 4xMile.

If there are so many national relays, and they run the 4xMile or 4x1600, surely we can all come together and think of a few more? ...... if not, maybe it's just less than you seem to think?

Excerpt 2 - Which top teams ran both and included some of their top athletes in both? Great Oak. Three of their four listed in the results ran both events. I'd say that qualifies.

Excerpt 3 - Where was that pointed out? I must have missed it. Also not sure what that has to do with any of the other points. Let's review this post of mine for a second:

'The Animal Within' wrote that Saugus lost to a school from a town with population of 6,000 people. kskxss replys that "all you need is 4 people. Your city's population is irrelevant" and asdfasdf replys "Of course population matters". Inserting a little common sense, I include in my post (replying to a variety of the posts in the thread in one setting) that of course population matters, because the talent pool of 2000 kids is generally going to yield 4 better athletes than a talent pool of 20 people.

Now, I'm not sure how you see any problem with that post of mine, or how it shows me "not knowing much about the sizes of schools that do well in team sports in California", but I suppose that's ok. We can address this topic.

Most of the schools that succeed in California are from the largest 3 classes, and mostly from Southern California. The CBEDS cut-off for Division 3 in California is about 1250. Do you disagree that the vast majority of the best teams in CIF-SS are schools with fewer than 1250 students? In CIF-SJS, the division 3 cut-off is about 1050. Do you think the best teams in the SJS are schools with fewer than 1050 students? If not, thank you for agreeing with me, but next time maybe try not playing it off as if I don't know much about the schools in California. (Also, if you don't mind, why are you so insistently insulting in your posts, saying that I know nothing and that whatever I say is "wrong as usual"? Have I insulted you or a program you're close to in the past by not including them in my rankings and have now taken offense?)

Excerpt 4 - Actually, I don't state that as if good teams have routinely run sub-20:00. That would go AGAINST the whole theme of my posts in this thread (that the event is rarely run, and that many of the top programs in the nation don't run it). I am pretty sure you are right, that 20:10 is in or at least very near the top 10 all time, and I never said otherwise. If you'll notice, what I did say that is the top teams in California, and teams that generally travel to Arcadia, combined can probably average 20:15-20:20 at Arcadia if they loaded up on the event each year. Maybe that's a stretch, but there are many good programs that travel to Arcadia (duh, it's the strongest distance meet of the season). If you want to argue that you don't think there is a team out of all the schools that travel to Arcadia that can average 5:05 or so for 1600m most years, then that's fine - that is your opinion. We're just going to have to disagree.

Excerpt 5 - I never said adding up PR's and running the times in the relays is the same thing. My post was about what the best team in the nation has the POTENTIAL to run, if they loaded up the event, to put into better perspective the times that Saugus ran. Noting that GPS' PR's add up to 19:16.64 (and just season bests this early in the year already add up to 19:30.36) doesn't mean I think GPS would run a 19:16.64 (or 19:30.36) if they were to run the 4x1600, but rather that they have the CAPABILITY to run that kind of time, a time more than a minute faster than the kind of times that are being talked about in this thread.

How many teams have ever had eight girls average 5:10 in relay races on the same day? Probably only one or two, I don't know, but (going back to my theme in this thread) most programs don't run many (if any) 4x1600's or 4xMiles, and the vast majority of those that do usually only run one team. There were only three others at Arcadia this year: Great Oak, Xavier Prep and Trabuco Hills. That is probably about average, or maybe more than usual, if we were to look at past years (I haven't checked, that's just a guess on my part).

But honestly, do you really NOT see the issue with your last statement versus EVERYTHING I've been saying in this thread? Really? And you say I'm trying to distort things...

GI Joe wrote:

I don't understand how people can say a 5:01 girl in the invite wouldn't have made a difference. Saugus would have won by a comfortable margin with that girl anchoring their A team.

We'll never know for sure if that would have been enough, unfortunately.

If we are talking about hypotheticals, though, like I said earlier my money would be on Davis UT. Their top four milers are better than any of the other programs can put together so far... they would have tested 20:00.

Really though, put this thing whole thing to an end, why don't we all list meets that we know of that run the 4x1600/4xMile and aren't just meets in the middle of nowhere that don't have any teams that would make a dent in any national rankings?

1. New Balance Nationals (NC)

2. Arcadia (CA)

3. Mt. SAC Relays (CA)

4. The Woodlands Invite (TX)

5. Mooberry Relays (WA)

6. Portland Track Festival (OR) -- post-season, usually between 2-4 teams show up (both + girls combined).

7. Prospect Relays (IL)

8. California Relays (CA)

9. Bronco Round-up (CA)

10. Jesuit-Sheaner Relays (TX)

11. East Coast Relays (NJ)

... what others are out there?

"Really though, put this thing whole thing to an end, why don't we all list meets that we know of that run the 4x1600/4xMile and aren't just meets in the middle of nowhere that don't have any teams that would make a dent in any national rankings?"

Watchout -

You're changing your story every post. The argument was about whether not or not the 4x1600/Mile are events run a lot, and it is.

As Keeping it real stated, "AT LEAST 17 meets in California ALONE have ALREADY run the event this year". No one was talking about only collegiate/open meets that hold the event or only national-class meets, yet you continue only counting those. IN GENERAL, the 4x1600/Mile is a VERY common event. Saugus, alone, has run the event at the Burbank Relays, SCV Invite, Ventura Invite, and the Arcadia Invite already this year.

Also, the other topic being discussed is whether or not Saugus would have won the invite with their anchor in the seeded race on their A team. Why you continue to bring up Davis UT is beyond me. They weren't even at the meet.

Addressing the points in reverse order..

Davis UT was at the meet. Their top miler - Shea Martinez - won the Invitational Mile (4:52.39). Their second best miler - Ellie Child - was sixth in the Invitational Mile (5:03.69). Their third best miler - Taylor Cox - won the Seeded Mile (4:56.06). None of those three ran on their 4x1600m team, but one of the ones that did ran a 5:09.86 on the leadoff leg -- probably Joanna Boyd, but I'm not sure.

So, yes, Davis UT was at the meet. And if you're talking about changing one runner in the relay, how is it not relevant to talk about ALL the potential changes that could have been made to any of those relays?

And no, I have NOT been changing my story on every post. You're right that on the first post when I mentioned a number for meets that include the relay, I didn't specify to include only meets that would actually have teams capable of making the US Top-10 list. I thought that didn't really need to be specified, given the discussion (how national Top-X for an event rarely run doesn't say much about the performance on its own). Why would a meet that doesn't include national caliber programs be considered an opportunity for teams to run a US Top-X time? Those programs aren't CAPABLE of running the kinds of times that would be competitive at a meet like Arcadia or New Balance to get onto that national list.

And again, if the meet is so commonly run (particularly outside of California, and before you say I'm changing my story again note that I HAVE already mentioned before that most of the 4x1600's and 4xMiles are in California) why aren't we able to come up with so many other meets that include the event?

There has been TWO meets mentioned that includes it in the Northwest: Mooberry Relays (WA), which is a meet for Spokane area schools, and the Portland Track Festival (OR), a post-season meet that usually has barely any teams participating in it's Friday Night Relays (which has varied between having a 4xMile, 4x1500m, 4x800, or DMR in it's short existence to date).

There has been ONE meet mentioned that includes it in the Southeast: New Balance Nationals (NC).

There has been TWO meet mentioned that includes it in the South: The Woodlands Invitational (TX) and the Jesuit-Shaener Relays (TX).

There has been ONE meet mentioned that includes it in the Midwest: Prospect Relays (IL)

There has been ONE meet mentioned that includes it in the Northeast: East Coast Relays (NJ)

There has been NO meets mentioned from the Southwest or Heartland that includes it.

And if you haven't noticed, I'm the one that actually mentioned all those meets. Funny, the one guy that's saying there aren't many meets that host it is the only one mentioning meets (outside of the three you just mentioned from California). If you guys think that the event is so common, can't we come up with a rather substantial list of meets that have the event??

Also, I don't know why you're talking about my mentioning any college/open meets that host it... I'm pretty sure the Portland Track Festival is the only one of those that is an open meet. I also didn't specify that they had to be national meets, just meets that could potentially include nationally relevant programs (meaning the meet could potentially have relays that could actually make a US Top-X lists)

Excerpt 4 and 5 kind of contradict each other. At first, you say "the top teams in California, and teams that generally travel to Arcadia, combined can probably average 20:15-20:20 at Arcadia if they loaded up on the event each year," but then in Excerpt 5, you say "I never said adding up PR's and running the times in relays is the same thing"

Which one is it? I'm sure there's a team or two that have the potential to average 5:05 or so for 1600m (Saugus, Great Oak, etc), but they haven't. Why? Because it's very hard to get four runners to run well on one day, which is why we haven't seen a team out of all the schools that travel to Arcadia that can average 5:05 or so for 1600. Every team in the top half of the race, with the exception of Saugus, did load up on the event too, therefore making your argument invalid.

Aptos, La Costa Canyon, Simi Valley, Xavier Prep, and Great Oak all ran their best milers in the race. Saugus did not.

The results? Saugus finished 7 seconds behind the winner, Aptos, despite running a split squad. Saugus having 8 girls average 5:10 on one night is incredible and I bet not many teams around the US, including FM, Grosse Point and Davis UT, could have accomplished that. It's a rare feat to have 8 girls all run great on the same night. They probably would have run 20:10-15 with their A team, but to say "the top teams in California, and teams that generally travel to Arcadia, combined can probably average 20:15-20:20 at Arcadia if they loaded up on the event each year" is ridiculous because no one ran 20:15-20 and five of the top six teams ran their best teams. Last year, La Costa Canyon ran their best team, a team who's PR's add up to 19:43, yet at Arcadia, they won in a time 40 seconds slower than that mark. In 2006, Corona Del Mar had four sub-5 girls, yet that quartet only managaged a then state record of 20:20.

To end, the reason we haven't seen many sub-20 performances, or 20:15-20 at Arcadia, isn't because the 4x1600/Mile is a rare or unpopular event. Teams just haven't been able to get all four legs to run well on the same day. Running 20:15-20 is harder than you think Watchout.

Whenever I see these type of threads, I always wonder who the hell are you guys? Like how old are you? What is your relationship to the schools? Are you just fans of high school girls track, or what's the deal?

I'm not trying to be rude, I'm just very curious what the deal is with these type of threads talking all about high school sports, or one particular high school team, or one particular high school athlete. I find it absolutely astounding and shocking that people care that much about this type of stuff.

"I thought that didn't really need to be specified, given the discussion (how national Top-X for an event rarely run doesn't say much about the performance on its own)."

What? That wasn't even the discussion in this thread to begin with. You're the troll that brought up "how national T-X for an event rarely run doesn't say much about the performance on its own". You were the first to post about that, nor did you ever mention you were talking about national class meets only. You simply stated, "Not to dampen spirits or anything (because having a 'B' team run under 20:45 is pretty darn good), but... having their teams be top-6 in the US this year isn't too impressive in that event, considered it's rarely run". You can't expect to bring up that topic, argue about it, and assume everyone is on the same discussion when you never even mentioned you were talking about only national class meets. Yes, it should have been specified in your first post.

Again, changing your argument around.

Baxter Boogie, why are you so interested in this stuff? What's the deal?

The general discussion in this thread is about why teams haven't run 20:15-20 per year. I'm just interested in knowing why watchout thinks it is so easy to run that time. Most teams do not run to their potential because it's hard to get four legs to run well on the same day regardless of gender, level, and relay. Look at the Oregon women. Had a great DMR team with Becca Friday and Anne Kesselring but they barely scored at NCAA Indoor Nationals this year.

This is a forum, right? Posting opinions and arguments is the general point of forums.