USA 10k Team for Moscow

Rupp is about as close to a lock as you can get.

Ritz is healthy and talented...hard to bet against him.

Derrick is rolling this spring.

Is Teg healthy? If so, he's a gamer and wouldn't be surprised to see him 2nd or 3rd.

Is Webb going to step up to the 10k? He's so talented he could be in the mix if he's healthy and his heads on straight.

Bobby Curtis has got some track chops. My guess is somewhere around 5th.

What's up with Tim Nelson? Is he donzo?

Late to the dance wrote:

Do you believe that it is going to take sub 27:24 to make the team?

Bobby Curtis has already run 27:24 so you must believe that it is going to take faster than that since you used the words IF EVERYONE HAS THEIR BEST DAY.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Rupp 26:48/Olympic silver medallist

Derrick USA XC champ/13:12 5k/4th place 2012 oly trials

Ritz 12:56 5k/60:00 half marathon

Tegenkamp 12:58 5k/4th place world's 5k 2007

So no, I don't think it's a stretch to say you have to be better than 27:24 to make the USA Worlds Team, because you have to beat TWO of those guys. All of whom are much better than 27:24 on their best day. It's not disrespect to Curtis. Did you run for Nova or something? Chill out.

5k seems similarly locked up, assuming Rupp and Lomong run.

Rupp former 5k record holder indoors. Just set 3k indoor record.

Lagat former 5k record holder indoors. Just set 2 mile indoor record.

Lomong current 5k record holder indoors, just set.

Rough year for Bumbalough, Torrance (again) etc.

800 you have two olympic finalists.

1500 you have two olympic finalists but it is the most "anything goes" race. still you have to figure centro and manzano are heavy heavy favorites regardless. for the men's distance races, the third 1500/800 slots are the only real wild cards.

Here are the locks to make the championships barring disaster/injury

10k Rupp and Derrick

5k Lamong Lagat Rupp

1500 Centro Manzano

800 Symmonds Solomon

Ritz True and Teg will most likely be competing for the 3rd spot in the 10k expect a finish where ritz is getting chased in the latter stages by teg true and maybe a suprise mid 27 guy having a good day

1500 Wheating is always a threat being a 1:44, 3:31 runner, will leer may finally get it done if he doesnt wait to get a standard, robby andrews? til basically the most rested guy going into the bend in close position can kick for 3rd.

800 is wide open could be Jocks fast front running, Khadevis robinson might find one more qualifier in him or perhaps even a college guy like greer or loxsom.

Womens events are far more open from the 800 to the 10k

Red Seagull wrote:

Here are the locks to make the championships barring disaster/injury

10k Rupp and Derrick

5k Lamong Lagat Rupp

1500 Centro Manzano

800 Symmonds Solomon

Ritz True and Teg will most likely be competing for the 3rd spot in the 10k expect a finish where ritz is getting chased in the latter stages by teg true and maybe a suprise mid 27 guy having a good day

1500 Wheating is always a threat being a 1:44, 3:31 runner, will leer may finally get it done if he doesnt wait to get a standard, robby andrews? til basically the most rested guy going into the bend in close position can kick for 3rd.

800 is wide open could be Jocks fast front running, Khadevis robinson might find one more qualifier in him or perhaps even a college guy like greer or loxsom.

Womens events are far more open from the 800 to the 10k

Hey, thanks for the support. But please try to learn how to spell my name. It isn't really that difficult.

L-O-M-O-N-G

800 Solomon (1:42.8), Symmonds (1:42.95), Jock (1:44.7)

1500 Centrowitz (3:31), Rupp (3:50.9i), Wheating (3:30.8)

steeple Jager (8:08), Cabral (8:18?), Huling (8:14)

5000 Rupp (12:58?), Lagat (12:53), Lomong (13:07?i)

10000 Derrick (13:12/27:31?), Ritz (12:56/27:22), Teg (27:2x)

If Jock trains with Johnny Gray's group, which should suit him as a speed 800m guy, he should make a leap forward. Otherwise, you can see Andrews in this spot or possibly Wheating.

At 1500m, Centro is very hard to beat in sit and kick and now has the pr to run the fast races as well, a great racer. Wheating healthy would be a force. And I have Rupp here because once you have great success at your shortest distance, it is hard to go back. He medaled at 10000m, but I think he may just be going after the American record at the mile and 1500m outdoors.

At 5, Rupp's kick of 51.5 at USA Nationals last year was incredible and there's more to come now with 3:50.9i speed. Lagat closed slightly faster and will have a shot and Lomong is going to be hard for the likes of Torrence, Bumbi, and others to beat.

At 10, True seems well suited to the event and just got 6th in the world, but it is xc, he does not have a time close to the top guys yet and he might actually be well suited to the steeple, given the strength he showed to handle the hills and the bumps on the course. This is his year but I can't predict a podium finish against this field. Curtis at 27:24 is going to be there but last year he didn't have it at nationals. Solinsky may surprise a lot of people but nationals will be too soon for him to have the speed work to go low 4 in the last mile, I would think. Derrick is vastly improved and had a great shot at Ritz last year. Ritz cannot finish very fast and that hurts him with Teg, but Teg is not the man he was, confidence wise or strength, when he ran 12:58, finished fourth at world's in the 5k, and so he can be beat by Ritz in a faster race. Rupp will win of course if he competes at this event. I'd like to see Ritz hit his sub 27 potential at this distance and this might be the year if he is not just doing quasi-marathon training but does a serious outdoor track campaign.

I started this thread. I'm kind of changing my mind. I think the logical pick has to be:

Rupp

Derrick

Ritz

This is probably the best team for medal contenders. Ritz has placed 6th in the past. Derrick could approach 13 minutes this year.

Teg doesn't seem fired up and has shown poor results recently. The other guys are going to be firing on all cylinders.

Ben True is tough as nails and may want it more than Ritz. He's younger and probably has a better kick than Derrick and Ritz. His main challenge will be to cover their long drive to the finish.

When the big move is made, the pack will be:

Rupp, Derrick, Ritz, Teg, True

Curtis maybe.

Should be interesting

Rupp , Ritz and a wildcard , somebody we don't expect , he has not shown his best yet , we have no idea ....

Aaron Braun will be a bigger factor here and deserves more credit. He was 5th at OT and always right ahead or right behind True. At OT he was way ahead of him. Its not about who is hot at the moment

Rupp, True, Ritz

True had lyme disease at OTs, and has ramped his milage 20% this year with good response. Not great tactically on the track but will be a beast and will fade just prior to bell lap, and finish a close second to Rupp.

I know this is an outlier pick but I am still making the outlandish claim of Lagat for the 10k team.

I guess it comes down to what Lagat is trying to accomplish. Is he just trying to make the team and compete well, or is he gunning for a medal?

My view is that the 5k is going to be far more competitive than the 10k. I don't think Lagat will be able to beat Rupp this year at 5k. Add in Farah, Gebremeskel, Gebrhiwet, a slew of Kenyans, potentially Lomong, etc and if Lagat slows down even a tiny bit he will be looking at a 10th place finish at best.

In the 10k, his kick may still be good enough for a medal even if he loses a step. He had never really done the endurance base for longer distances before the last couple years, but he has been building it up and his half marathon this year was an overdistance effort that shows he can be competitive at 10k.

I still think Lagat is only a 25% likelihood to run the 10k but is it really such a stretch of the imagination? I still have Lagat as a sub 13:00 talent and that is enough to break 27:00. But I just don't see him running 12:50 this year and I think that level of ability is what it is going to take to medal at 5k.

I guess the question is, will Lagat be satisfied running for top 10 in the 5k and hoping to hit the perfect day, or will he take a risk that moving up will put him in the mix for something truly extraordinary?

At the very least, I'm sure he may be considering the 10k as a backup plan. Maybe switch to the 10k if someone rips a 12:45 before the WCs. On the other hand, Lagat is one who has never ducked competition and he probably had a 5k bronze medal last year if not impeded on the homestretch.

Another important factor, he doesn't have the 10k A standard, so he would have to get it at USATF, but I don't see that being a problem for Lagat.

Rupp is a lock and I believe Derrick is having one of those years where you can just see it coming. He is going to make the big breakthrough and be a first class star this year. I wouldn't be shocked at a sub 27.

I'm just so glad that the level of competition is so strong that it will probably take 27:15 talent to make the team. A few years ago that was pretty much the American Record. Of course I don't think that it will actually go that fast at USATF, but if we are talking about 27:24 man Bobby Curtis as a darkhorse, you get my drift...