How Oscar's story could hold water, or not, your theories.

The dump is the key to this trial. If there is still poop in the toilet then his story is believable, particularly if it is a big poop that would make a lot of noise. Carrying her downstairs would then make sense too as it would have been smelly in there. I doubt he would think about flushing the toilet after realizing he had just killed the love of his life.

If there's no poop, there's no defense. The idea that she fled to the bathroom after being hit with the bat is validated if the toilet is clean. Someone needs to check the toilet.

Non-stop shouting" was heard coming from Oscar Pistorius' home before his girlfriend was shot dead, a bail hearing has heard

http://news.sky.com/story/1054401/oscar-pistorius-defence-steps-up-bail-case

not so sure wrote:

A previous story says he yelled at the 'intruders'. He then fires through the door.

He yelled something like this to the intruder, "You witch, you ain't leaving me." Bang. Bang.

A witness heard "non-stop talking like fighting" coming from the home of athlete Oscar Pistorius before shots were fired early on 14 February, say South African prosecutors. In court prosecution admits witness house was 600 m away. Gasps in court.

Testosterone" in house was actually legal herbal remedy used by athletes. Prosecution 'we didn't read the whole name of product" when claiming that testosterone found.

Prosecution is getting walked all over by defence

latest in court wrote:

A witness heard "non-stop talking like fighting" coming from the home of athlete Oscar Pistorius before shots were fired early on 14 February, say South African prosecutors. In court prosecution admits witness house was 600 m away. Gasps in court.

Testosterone" in house was actually legal herbal remedy used by athletes. Prosecution 'we didn't read the whole name of product" when claiming that testosterone found.

Prosecution is getting walked all over by defence

Her bladder was empty too. He's going to get away with it

By "get away with it", presumably you mean he will be cleared of intentionally murdering his GF, but still do significant time for voluntary homocide? If Botha is correct and ballistics suggest he put his prothetics on prior to shooting, he will go down for premeditated homocide regardless of who was on the other side of the door.

The best his defense can hope for is a verdict of voluntary homocide, sympathy from the judge and no more than 7 years.

Lunch break. "We're in terrible trouble" says junior prosecution official leaving court

My prediction is he will be granted bail later today and he'll not face any prison time for his actions following the trial.

Oscar's story is plausible. So is the fact that those vials are herbal remedies.

We can speculate all we want about his story. It is a blatant lie. Probably went down like this.

Late night text from drunk X-BF. "Reeva, I miss you. It is valentines day, remember last year? ;)"

Oscar checks her phone. Goes ballistic. Reeva assures nothing is going on and that he is drunk. Oscar presses the issue. Reeva says you aren't are a hero, you are a fraud. You take steroids like Lance and hide behind your blades!

Oscar can't handle this. The truth hurts. He threatens Reeva. She is very afraid. Argues through the bathroom door because he is going mental. Bangs on the door multiple times. Reeva threatens to let the world know that he is a cheat. Oscar knows now he must kill her. Fires 4 shots through the door while she is helpless behind the toilet.

She is dead. Oscar panics. He just committed murder. He phones his family, attempts CPR and calls his lawyers.

s is cray cray wrote:

Ambien + alcohol = black out. that stuff is nuts. add in steroids and your sub conscience can do some crazy stuff I would imagine.

This adds an intriguing element. I did not see any reference to alcohol and zolpidem (Ambien) in his affadavit, but I skimmed it and may have missed it. The combination can definitely lead to complex dissociative behaviors, kind of like what occurs in a person with "multiple personalities." The problem with this line of defense is that he would have no recollection of the events that occurred when he was in a dissociative state.

I agree with others about several key elements to his story, which, if demonstrated untrue, would eliminate his credibility and suggest guilt with respect to murder:

- If neighbors heard them arguing he would have to acknowledge this and suggest that they made up before he retired to bed and she to yoga.

- If he had to retrieve his gun from under the bed after being on the porch he would have to admit to being oblivious to Reeva's absence from bed, which itself should have absolutely changed his approach to stalking and shooting suspected intruders.

- ***Critically, forensics should be able to answer the question of whether the cricket bat was used simply to break through the bathroom door or whether it was used to beat Reeva. A lot is going to hinge on this.

- Even if you buy his story, it is somewhat puzzling that she would lock herself in a bathroom in the middle of the night with her boyfriend in another room not wearing his prosthetics-- especially if neighbors corroborate that they had a heated argument earlier in the evening.

If he is a jealous, possessive type and had alcohol that evening a non-premeditated murder seems most likely.

- He came from outside, into a pitch dark room, wouldn't be hard to find his gun and at the same time not seeing much in the room

- Steroids were found to be a herbal remedy which is not illegal

So if he was outside the bathroom how did he manage to accurately shoot her 3 times behind a closed door

Why did she reply when he shouted out to the supposed. 'I'm in the bathroom' is the standard reply. Is it the first time she used the bathroom in the house!

Why he reached for the gun near the bed he definitely would have checked the bed either by looking or touching the bed. You would not assume the person in the bathroom was burglar without at least checking

Big coincidence that he suddenly decided to wander on the balcony at the same time she went to the bathroom. Also how come he did not hear her go

Why would she lock the bathroom door, especially in the middle of the night. Does anyone here do that who just lives with their partner. Someone said you do that by habit, unlikely on a different door with a different lock.

If she was still alive why did he not call an ambulance

If you so bothered about security why would you leave a window open knowing there is a ladder there. That is just completely ridiculous

There are just too many unlikely coincidences which added up mean there is about a 1 in a million chance he is telling the truth.

- Hip, right side of head and arm. Its not very accurate but I get what you are saying, but she was in the toilet wasn't she? According to the drawings of their floor its a quite small room.

- You mean why didnt she reply? No idea

- Yes, that seems obvious. But he might have panicked. He seems to be ready for anything, living with a gun under his pillow? Who does that. Also, it might have looked as she wasy laying in the bed under the sheets.

- Not necessary a big coincidence, its not unlikely that she was woken by him going out to the balcony

- She probably locked it because he shouted about a burglar being in the house, also, my gf does it out of habit even at night.

- He called someone at the estate asking them to call an ambulance

- He might have forgotten, but sure, to be that afraid its strange

Did you look at the reports from the court today? Botha (police detective) was ripped to shreds. He basically ended up showing that he thought OP killed her because that seemed likely, although not based on evidence.

Look at this:

"So Botha has effectively admitted he couldn't find any inconsistencies in OP's version."

"We're in terrible trouble" says junior prosecution official leaving court.

I think the clincher will be if there is any type of head injury from the cricket bat. A fall from a seated position on a toilet will render a different type of trauma to the head than a man swinging a cricket bat at the head.

I think Oscar is guilty, but I also thought OJ was also.

Precious Roy wrote:

The intruder theory is silly. Everyone in SA with money locks down and alarms up at night. No one with the kind of cash Oscar has would leave a window open at night with no alarm on. The guy is a millionaire. He can afford to run the AC.

Most homes, of even the rich, don't have AC in South Africa. The weather is very mild there. People just don't even think to install heat/AC. It's not part of their culture really.

Read the coverage, there was no trauma to the head from the cricket bat.

No signs of any physical altercation between the two of them.

Unless the prosecution is holding somethings back for trial, or backtracks a lot at trial... Oscar's story is looking more and more to hold up perfectly....fcked up story, but they disprove nothing and showed themselves to be in competent cops...

Look at this:

"So Botha has effectively admitted he couldn't find any inconsistencies in OP's version."

"We're in terrible trouble" says junior prosecution official leaving court.

How much is the prosecutor paid compared to the defence? I bet if you reversed their roles it would be a different story

Botha is not the one under trial which is how this transcript comes across.

Going back to the toilet ok it's a small room but you would assume the intruder was standing not on the loo and aim higher?

Then apparently her bladder was empty well if they were arguing she might have been to the loo. Then if she had been OS would have heard the loo flush

If you had not checked that your partner is there and you hear someone in the toilet you are going to assume that its them and not a burglar. They are in the same goddam room its not like he heard a noise in some other part of the house

Even that bit about changing sides of the bed due to an injury sounds like a lie. You turn over if that's the case, you don't need to change sides of the bed

I noticed him do the classic bad actor routine of burying his head in his hands as well

SMM wrote:

- ***Critically, forensics should be able to answer the question of whether the cricket bat was used simply to break through the bathroom door or whether it was used to beat Reeva. A lot is going to hinge on this.

This point seems to be cleared:

Det Botha agreed the post-mortem examination had showed no signs of assault or defensive wounds on Ms Steenkamp.

But another detail doesn't fit into Oscar P's story:

Det Botha said he arrived at the house at 04:15 and found Ms Steenkamp lying dead on the ground floor. She was wearing white shorts and a black vest, he said and was covered in towels.

It is truly remarkable to me how people can now read what we know is fact (his affidavit) and STILL possibly believe him in any shape or form.

Aside from any other detail, this, is so utterly implausible it defies belief.

'I grabbed my 9mm pistol from underneath my bed. On my way to the bathroom I screamed words to the effect for him/them to get out of my house and for Reeva to phone the police'

So in the 7 meters (distance from bed to bethroom from police report), he is presumably screaming at the top of his lungs something to the effect of 'Who the f$§k is in there, what the f%$k are you doing, I have a f&%king gun and I will use it' and she sits there and doesn't say a word? No 'Oscar its me don't shoot' no female scream that obviously identifies her to him?

PEOPLE. THIS IS RIDICULOUS. GET A GRIP.

So she wakes up for a wee, locks herself in the toilet of the ensuite of the man she is deeply in love with and then falls asleep - to be woken up by him pumping bullets into her. Except when know this isnt true because

'I heard movement inside the toilet' so 'I fired shots at the toilet door and shouted to Reeva to phone the police'

So she's not asleep - she's just playing hide and seek while he is screaming at the top of his lungs he is going to shoot her?

I mean I'm not a forensic scientist - I am a mechanical engineer. Not a super genius but smart enough. I challenge anyone to possible rebutt what I just wrote above and how this crucial part of his story can possibly be true.

Thanks, I am waiting.