German Fernandez in 3k @ Reiti, Italy. PREDICTION

hjd wrote:

I'm a neutral observer.

While I don't like Ventolin's name-calling, anyone with half a brain should were that his calculations make sense.

German is a guy who has never shown any sprint or speed ability and has apparently himself said that he's a long distance guy. Based on a 3:34, that clearly points to under 7:35 for 3000m.

Also, why would how many times he's run a 3:34 have ANYTHING to do with anything?

It also really doesn't matter what German considers himself. At this point he's got limited exposure to anything which would make anyone think he's breaking 7:35 at this point.

Brian Wave wrote:

It also really doesn't matter what German considers himself. At this point he's got limited exposure to anything which would make anyone think he's breaking 7:35 at this point.

not true. He's run 3:34 which is plenty fast enough for a 7:35. It does matter what he considers himself because he knows his own speed/distance balance. If he ran 3:34 off of 52 or 51 speed, then 7:35 is a possibility right now.

German ran 7:47 for 3k shortly after he ran a 3:56 mile back in 2009. Now that he has run a 3:34 1500 (converts to a 3:51 mile), why is it so hard to believe that he could run under 7:40?

In any case, this wasn't the only subpar performance of the race. Longosiwa ran slower than his 5k PR pace in this race, and Kemoboi only ran 11 seconds faster than his 3k steeple PR. Looks like there are plenty of runners ready to call it a season.

3:34.6 x 7:20.67 / 3:26.0 = 7:39.1

German is better at the longer distances so I would expect him to run somewhat faster than 7:39 when he's in good shape, but he's not in good shape. As he pointed out himself, he's only been training a few weeks after extended layoffs.

Geb ran 3:31 and 7:25.

3:31-2 is a minimum requirement to be competitive internationally at the longer distances, from 5k on up.

Komen 3:29 and was better at the 3k and 5k.

J.R. wrote:

3:34.6 x 7:20.67 / 3:26.0 = 7:39.1

German is better at the longer distances so I would expect him to run somewhat faster than 7:39 when he's in good shape, but he's not in good shape. As he pointed out himself, he's only been training a few weeks after extended layoffs.

Geb ran 3:31 and 7:25.

3:31-2 is a minimum requirement to be competitive internationally at the longer distances, from 5k on up.

Komen 3:29 and was better at the 3k and 5k.

German ran a PR 3:34. He is in shape for something. If his 3k is really that slow right now, then he must be in some very good 800m shape. You can't be good at one distance without being just as good at one of the adjacent distances (either longer or shorter).

nice analysis as always.

ventolin^3 wrote:

delusion will help you nowhere

QFE

As usual Ventolin has precited something that did not occur.

The fact IS:

Fernandez is NOT better at the longer distances, not yet anyway, by a long shot.

His best by far mark is at 1500, BY a ton

There are a ton of guys who have run 3:34.xx and more than once that never ran 7:32

His marks are 7:47 and he he just ran slower than, and 13:25 which does not nearly indicate 7:32

The best mark in his profile is a "one off" 3:34.xx which is his superior mark run once ever by three seconds.

It does matter that he ran it one time only, it is the outlier of all his marks, for statistical purposes as ventolin should know, it barely even indicates the consistent talent level until he runs it at least one more time.

All the name calling in the world will not chnage any of the facts.

You are what you run, not 21 seconds faster than that off one 3:34.xx

Stick a fork in him, he's done.

You're Right!!!!! wrote:

The results are Bizarre!!! Doesn't make any sense! He should have been able to at least run in the low 7:40's at his current level of fitness. He might of just ate something bad or was tired, who knows? Sometimes he's either on fire or just hang'in on! Get'em next time!!!!!!

Guys, running is not some video game where you punch in your last result, add some small amount of randomness, and presto magic out pops your next result.

Each and every race result is affected by a myriad of factors: how you feel that day, how you recovered from your workouts, how the race unfolds, how the strategy meshes with your strengths and weaknesses, how mentally tough you are that day.

The facts are German has not run a highly competitive track race longer than 1500 in over 2 years. Nor has he had a long injury free block of base training in who knows how long.

I'm sure he's probably capable of running faster than 7:53 right now (but NOT 7:32!!!). However, the race needs to be perfect for him. Given his lack of base, then it probably needs to be an even pace or a slightly negative split pace. If he starts too fast, or surges too much, or tries to start pushing too far he, then he probably stands a good chance of blowing up.

The bigger your base, the better you are at running good when everything is not perfect for you. If you lack the base, then you really have to feel good for the day and be in a race which fits your strengths best.

I don't know what happened in Rieti, but posts here make it sound like he was leading the second group. It also sounded like the pacer went out really fast. While I personally think German should have been capable of at least 7:45 under the right conditions (maybe low 7:40's if everything went perfect for him), I also don't find it too surprising that he would blow up if he tired to go too fast. It appears that is what happened.

That said, 7:53 is not horrible. It's a poor result, but not horrible. It's the fastest he's run in 3 years, and is equivalent to about 13:40 5k and maybe a 3:41 1500. I would not be too devastated if I blew up and ran 7:53 - unless I was hoping for 7:32!!! I doubt he thought that was possible.

Those thinking he could run mid to low 7:30's where being completely unrealistic. Those thinking he is done are being premature. He'll be done if he just can not stay healthy for any period of time longer than a few months for the next 3-4 years.

That is not how running works. There is no such thing as a consistent talent level. If you run a time, then that's what shape you are in. And shape does not go away in a matter of two weeks. It has nothing to do with whether he ran the time 1 time or whether he ran in 5 times. There's no such thing as an outlier concept in running. It's physiology not statistics.

Bull shit, ask Kyle Merber

You ARE what you can produce most of the time, yeah yoi get credit for being an "XYZ" guy for running a makr, it is of little use if you can never produce it in the clutch or when called upon, and it certainlly DOES not translate to a monster PR in an event twice the distance, plain and simple.

Fernandez had /has not run a race over a mile or 1500 in years, there was NO reason to make such an outlandish prediction that would have made him like the number 3 U.S. Performer of all time. That is simply insane and the prediction tunred out to be absurd.

Now Ventolin does not like it, and the name calling starts, as it does when anyone else points out how far off he was or is.

There is rarely a case where he has someone running slower than what they actually did, it is always some wild ass faster prediction, this one was not even close.

On a good day RIGHT NOW? German may have run in the low 7:40's

In a year I could see 7:30's mid

Anyone know how the race played out? He must have gone out too hard. I really thought he wouldn't do any worse than low 7:40's.

What does Kyle Merger have to do with this and what am I supposed to ask him?

You people just don't understand Ventolin's calculator. It gets lots of people's perfmances correct so don't make it out to be some rare thing. And it doesn't have control over how someone runs. The calculator is only meant for IDEAL running. Perfect pacing, etc. He can't control how the race turns out to be run.

And you are not what you run most of the time. You are what you have run most recently or your absolute fastest time. Again, this is not statistics. This is physiology. If you run a 3:34 then you are in 3:34 shape. Your body has no requirement that you have to run 3:34 at least three times before you are a 3:34 runner. What you're saying makes no sense. With that logic, El G is not a 3:26 guy and Bekele is not a 12:37 guy.

Great post. Totally agree.

I saw the broadcast, but it was hard to tell what happened because they kept cutting away to show other events, and when they did show the race, much of the time it was a long shot and hard to tell who was who.

The pacer did go out really fast. For the first half of the race there were 2 or 3 who tried to stay close to the pacer. German was in the second group of 3 or 4 runners, but in the middle of that pack. It looked like after 1600, he started pushing to close the gap with the leaders and did close it somewhat, but then blew up in the last 600 meters.

Now he can go back to work, and hopefully get a really good base in for the next season.

ksks wrote:You people just don't understand Ventolin's calculator. It gets lots of people's perfmances correct so don't make it out to be some rare thing. And it doesn't have control over how someone runs. The calculator is only meant for IDEAL running. Perfect pacing, etc. He can't control how the race turns out to be run.

And you are not what you run most of the time. You are what you have run most recently or your absolute fastest time. Again, this is not statistics. This is physiology. If you run a 3:34 then you are in 3:34 shape. Your body has no requirement that you have to run 3:34 at least three times before you are a 3:34 runner. What you're saying makes no sense. With that logic, El G is not a 3:26 guy and Bekele is not a 12:37 guy.

thaank you

here are results

this was worst rieti 3k in living memory

longo has gone 12'48/7'33 this year & off his 12'48 shouda been looking for well below 7'30 ( ( nearer 7'25 ) has ole 7'30pb ) but went 7'49 !

probably 20s slower than expected

the other kenyans went probably 15s slower than expected ( kemboi is 3ksc champ - you don't win that with at least being in 7'30-flat shape )

german with his 7'53 did somewhat follow the kenyan pattern of being 15 - 20s slower than expected ( obviously he isn't a kenyan )

anyone who believes 7'53 is anywhere close to being a serious time for him needs their head examining...

Brian Wave wrote:

It also really doesn't matter what German considers himself. At this point he's got limited exposure to anything which would make anyone think he's breaking 7:35 at this point.

A coach knows better whether or not someone is an "X" runner. My college coach turned numerous guys who considered themselves 800m specialists into 1500m All-Americans.

My two cents...

Based on the ventolin logic of the day:

Curtis is now a 7:28 to 7:23 guy

If the logic works for most it certainly works for ONE, right?

Come on now.

Kemboi and others have had long seasons, many were running slower as time went on past the games and clearly on the "other side" by now.

German on the other hand was daisy fresh, and off a 3:34.xx

I love how you ARE what you ARE when it is fast and you ran it OMCE ever, but not when it is slow and have run that recently.

I thought German would run around 7:40-42(he did not however), as there were no races longer than 1500 in his profule for a real long time now

Trialswatcher wrote:Based on the ventolin logic of the day:

Curtis is now a 7:28 to 7:23 guy

If the logic works for most it certainly works for ONE, right?

Come on now

no

this was reference to class 3k runners in the field, either proven as with longo or potential as in kemboi as 3ksc champ or german with 3'34 & considering himself more a 5k runner

curtis is not considered elite 3k actual or potential - he is a 27'24 guy & 10k is considered the distance he may approach "elite", not 3k