Can the AVERAGE person run a 15:30 5k?

what is average?

the 'average' person can't break 20 minutes for 5k.

You're an idiot. I am not especially talented, I realize, and I've dealt with my fair share of injuries and illnesses, but I could break 60 seconds in a 400 when I was 13 and not even training, and after 10 years of running (maybe about 7 total healthy years), I still haven't broken 16. My body fat percentage is under 6, I can lift a fair amount of weight w/ my legs. I can run 55-56 for a 400.

Am I an underachiever? Yes. But the idiots who always think 15:30 or w/e other number are doable for the "average" human being don't understand the first thing about physiology, training, or talent. It's all the "non-cut" sport apologists who want to say that America could have loads of 12:55 guys like Kenya if only our "best athletes" weren't football or basketball players. Total BS. Not how it works. Being a good athlete doesn't make you a good distance runner (15:30 IS good.)

According to this, the average pace for a person completing a 5K was 11:47. That's for people who probably put any type of effort into it, and a very small subset of the population. I bet most Americans couldn't even walk a mile without resting.

The question is which percentage of American males if randomly selected and trained for a certain number of years run 15:30??

I think it would be 10-15% tops

ohio_miler wrote:

The question is which percentage of American males if randomly selected and trained for a certain number of years run 15:30??

I think it would be 10-15% tops

That is a much better question. I don't think the % would be that high even unless you had an age range, something like 18 to 36. Even then, I'm kind of doubting it would be that high.

If you had some hypothetical scenario, like if the person could be trained optimally, had nothing else come up in life, was actually motivated to do it, and then was just in the right race on the right day. Then maybe it would be ten percent.

I think a runner is likely to overestimate the % though because we associate with a higher number of healthy fit people than would be a random sample of the population. I'm thinking of the guys in my office right now and out of about fifteen people, I don't think any of them could have ever run 15:30 even until the most ideal of circumstances. Even if they doped.

Of course it is possible for an "average" person to run 15.30 5K but this is a poor question! Your question essentially requires just 1 "average" person out of 7 billion to run 15.30 to be affirmed. Of course this is possible, but it is not probable! Although 15.30 is really good, I bet there is someone out of 7 billion who can run this time even without training. In my high school in Kenya, the average first place in school cross country 5k was around this time without much training. However, my school was not necessarily known for running; our athletes rarely made it out of district, where you go from division --> district --> province --> national. Everyone had to participate in school sports unless you had a doctor's excuse that you couldn't handle much exercise. Going back to the question...the moment an untrained person runs 15.30, everything changes and you realize that they can't be an average person!!

Now, if you ask what the probability of picking a random person from the population and expecting 15.30, the answer is almost zero. If you ask the same question and allow them to train with the best coach and facilities, the probability goes up but it is still very low. You would be crazy to think even an average Kenyan or Ethiopian can run this time. I can speak for Kenya and say that out of all those runners you have seen, ~95% are Kalenjin, and about 4% are Kikuyu, and the rest are from all other groups combined. Kalenjins in Kenya make up about 12% of the population and even then it would be foolish to think that even a quarter of them can do this speed. Not sure about how Ethiopian running but I would expect it to be the highland people too who are good runners.

Have you stopped to look around to see what the average American looks like? It's called OBESE!!!! Get a grip kid!

Nope. I'm a 2:50 marathoner, started running at 25, and consider myself above average athletically. I'm on the muscular side of the spectrum at 180 pounds, and even when I was training balls to the wall, I never broke 17. Granted, at my peak I made the mistake of training too hard and definitely ran my races in my workouts, being that I ran within seconds of my 5K PR in some tempo runs and repeats, but even then, if I would have saved those efforts for perfect race day conditions, I think I had 16:5X in me. 15:30 is pretty damn hard to attain unless you have some genetic gift (speed and/or endurance).

ho-mal-mo wrote:

I bet the average letsrunner couldn't run 15:30, even if you take out dudes over 30 and kids under 18.

I agree with this statement...but I would say it is closer to: say less than 1 percent of all letsrun posters..and if they had 4 years to train it would still be less than 1 percent!

Even if you took someone with the prerequisite foot speed, physical proportion and cardiovascular horsepower, the chances are they will get injured running the 70+ mpw in order to get the endurance. Could the average person run sub-18 is far more realistic.

He's an idiot? Lol! You're an idiot. Running sub-60 at 13 off of not training means you have little talent? Wow.

And the idea that if only a bunch of 300 pound linebackers and 7-foot-tall sprinters were out running the 5000 we would be winning gold medals left and right . . . I'll be laughing about that all night!

The average person is:

White

Female

36.8 years old

Has a bmi of 28.6

No way is that average Jane running 15:30

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Median_age

http://yourlife.usatoday.com/fitness-food/diet-nutrition/story/2012-01-17/Obesity-epidemic-in-USA-shows-signs-of-leveling-off/52613442/1

t94bell wrote:

Yes. I have a friend who was a big footballer in high school and ran only his last two years of prep. In college he has recently gone 15:35 in the 5K. It took literally 90-100 miles a week to do it, but he's done it. 60 miles a week got him a sub 10 2-mile and it took 30 more miles to run at 5 minute pace for another 1.1 Give anybody that's in their peak fitness (20-25) I believe the average person could.

Some rough calculations: 15:30 is about 3.4 standard deviations above the performance mean of runners. That's about 1 in 3000. 18:30 is 2 st dev above the mean, about 1 in 44.

Don't expect to go out and pick, say 10 people (male) at random and expect any of them to be trainable to a 15:30.

What you must understand is that a 5km means being able to run 5km averaging 3 06 non stop and that is pretty dawm quick.

About the average, you can't expect to pick 100 random men and hope that even one will do that kind of time.

It's not so much the time (15 30) in itself, it's really about the commitment you're willing to put and also about being able to endure the training required to do so.

I believe that even without outstanding genetics it can be possible for 60% of men to achieve that time given that theres a good amount of base (say 5 years of consistent mileage without major injuries)and that from an early age the person in question was active.

Now when you're talking about sub 15 that's a little different story because a 30 seconds chop of that time is even harder than say going from 20 to 17 flat.

And it continues geting harder to remove time.I'd say

Poor genes and bad comitment: Lucky to even finish under 25(or finish at all)

Poor genes and maximum comitment: barely under 17

fantastic genes and little work=15:30

medium genes and lots of work=15 flat

fantastic genes and lots of work=13-14

finally the top in the world are able to perform 12 high when correctly paced and can consistently perform 13 low even alone but those are very rare and have fenomenal natural ability, which enable them to perform very high quality training and also great training tools and methods.

Still not for everyone for sure, i myself i'm not gifted at all, but work very hard and i would say that 15 30 isn't that far of from my ability, i can for sure do under 16

joeschmodontknow wrote:

what is average?

the 'average' person can't break 20 minutes for 5k.

Moreover, the "average person" can't break 25 minutes in 5k.

Letsrun posters always look at the average times in their local 5k's. But how many persons participate in these type of races? 100? 200? 500? and how many people lives in that area? Do the math.

The average person can't run a mile without stopping.

That is the problem. For every person that has the talent, ability, mentality and commitment for those 15:30 in 5k, there's another 100 obese, sedentary, half-assed joggers that haven't all these requirements.

That's the tail of the normal distribution. If the population of potential runners trained and were thin, I'd guess that fewer than 5% could hit that time. 30% could hit 20, optimistically.

Just stand outside Walmart and you can answer that question

in 5 minutes.

letskeepitreal wrote:

the average Tarahumura male would have a good shot at training and running a 15:30 5k.

Only with proper shoes

I've thought about what the average male could run if motivated and trained properly for a while, and it's certainly not anywhere near 15:30.

I would guess that breaking 20 for 5k would be a huge, but doable accomplishment for most able-bodied guys in reasonable starting age, shape and weight. Anything faster and they just aren't average anymore. I think this board just doesn't realize how fast even a 19:59 is to the general population.