Bolt will not win the 2012 Olympic 100m

Whaaat? wrote:

Geezer, I say you're wrong. Bolt may not break his record but he will win. Lets revisit this thread after the race.

Thread revisited. Nuff said.

SG and/or poster who called me out--I await my paycheck.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Bolt was quoted on July 27 as having said that:

"I don't think it will be the end of the world if I lose."

Up until this moment, if I had been forced to choose between Bolt and Blake, I would have picked Bolt.

But no longer.

Bolt has already lost.

All hail the 2012 Olympic 100m champion, Yohan Blake.

In the 200m, unlike the 100m, Bolt will have enough time to decide that he wants to win, so he might actually win that race.

You stupid bag of crap.You don't know dick, you piece of turd. Now shut up and watch tv. Read more books, this will make you smart , a$$ hat.

Yes, I admit it! I was wrong!

MASSIVELY WRONG!

My pre-race prediction was based on what I observed up until that point. The only thing recently going in Bolt's favor was his adjusted 9.75 this year, which I lauded as having been one of the best clean runs ever, but which I didn't think was sufficient evidence to overcome his worsening trend, combined with some apparent physical difficulty and attendant medical treatment.

I still think that it was an eminently reasonable prediction. I will re-visit my own mens olympic 100m thread, and look at how my time predictions went.

While I owe a debt of gratitude to coach d for temporarily diverting this thread from the subject of my prediction failure to the subject of doping, I'd like to return it to my prediction failure.

After the heats, it was easy to call Bolt for the win, on the other thread I raved about how incredible he looked, and that he seemed not just healthy, but "invincible". After the semi's, it was easy to call Powell a goner, which I also did. But prior to these races, there was no good indication that Bolt would be capable of what he did.

Clearly, something significant happened in that month during which he disappeared. He could have slept a lot, he could have eaten well, he could have actually trained, he could have practiced starts, he could have doped, etc.--but unless it WAS doping, I didn't see it coming.

Before I started this thread, I made a post that Bolt would dope massively during that month, because there was no way he could countenance losing at the Olympics, and that he would never test positive. Then there were indications that Bolt's confidence was shaken, which was why I started this thread.

Do I think there is any way he could have achieved this Olympic victory without juicing, given how his year has been going so far? Actually, yes, based on his 9.75, and the very real possibility that he doesn't really train hard until it matters.

Whatever.

I was wrong about Bolt not winning, but I stand by the reasoning. The reason I was wrong was that there was critical information unavailable. As soon as he ran his heat, it was obvious that he would win.

Bolt is great at marketing himself and you fell for it, hook line and sinker. Take it easy and feign vulnerability at the trials and people will foam at the mouth with expectations of defeat.

Please don't go down the path of Cockroach D with the doping accusations. Any idiot knows that even if that was the case, he wouldn't be "massively doping" the month of the olympics. How dumb is that? Deep down, I think you know Bolt is clean.

Your reasoning was unsound to begin with and has further deteriorated. Nevertheless, you've posted some entertaining threads so I'm hoping for some redemption.

There is one simply thing to remember about Bolt... you never underestimate a man who has run 9.58.

[quote]Sprintgeezer wrote:

Bolt was quoted on July 27 as having said that:

"I don't think it will be the end of the world if I lose."

Up until this moment, if I had been forced to choose between Bolt and Blake, I would have picked Bolt.

But no longer.

Bolt has already lost.

All hail the 2012 Olympic 100m champion, Yohan Blake.

Looks like you nailed it Geezer.

This is what happens when you make predictions in advance instead of waiting until after the race and them claiming you had accurately predicted the result

I don't think the reasoning was unsound to begin with, and on the other thread I've already posted my belief that he did something, but not necessarily something banned.

My point is that I don't even care anymore. There are, and have been, plenty of dopers--but Bolt is faster than all of them. The doping train left the station a long time ago.

Just in this race, he crushed 2 guys who have served PED suspensions--Blake and Gatlin.

Bolt might be a doper, but if he is, he is the BEST doper ever.

What I really want to see is Bolt put that record out of reach for all-time. I have said many times that I don't believe we'll ever see another 9.58 in our lifetimes, but I want to see Bolt go 9.4x, and I don't care what it takes.

He is, by my account, the fastest guy in recorded history, whether juiced or not. I think there is a possibility that this adjusted 9.70 was done cleanly, which makes the 9.69 a clean possibility, and even the 9.58

Bolt is a guy who I'm always paranoid about his getting injured. As everybody knows, juice can heal some of those injuries quickly, and permit training to continue. I honestly believe that even if he was completely clean, he could achieve these types of times if he applied himself more, if he was more disciplined.

Very impressive.

I was wrong about Bolt not winning, but I stand by the reasoning.

Sprintgeezer was wrong, but not really.

What does it take to get this guy to admit it when he is wrong?

chuckie d wrote:

He runs over 9.75, I think he has more than a 50% chance of losing.

If he steps up to the line healthy, though, he will win. I think he'll run something in the 9.6 range and beat Blake by .10 and Gay by .15.

All he needs to do is improve his start from his 9.76 and 9.79 runs this year and that's a 9.65-9.67 quality run. I think Blake's limit this year is somewhere around 9.70-9.72 and Gay will get stuck around 9.79.

My predictions were pretty close to being on the money.

Only guy I completely missed on ahead of time was Gatlin. I really didn't see that coming. I thought that 9.80 at the trials was a bit of a fluke.

You and others claim to be experts and fail to recognize the most basic points. In championship years the smart athletes don't burn themselves out in the D/L. They also do not run hard in heats to 'scare' opponents.

The coaches of these athletes are smart. Did you expect Bolt to care about running 9.6 early in the season. He geared his program to peak at the Olympics. When Americans win on the D/L I just laugh because they really believe they are the best. You can only maintain top shape or peak for so long.

Jeter and Gatlin were pretty embarrassed because they were sure this was their time. If you see Bolt running 9.86 at trials. That doesn't mean he is in 9.86 shape. He wants to qualify. Nothing more. When he runs on the D/L it is to win...nothing more. So if you people continue to be surprised at these performances then I cannot help you.

If they believe coming into Championships as the fastest makes you a favourite then ...lol. Ryan Bailey ran 9.88 in the heats. That was his fastest time. Did he get a medal for the heats? You cannot rationalise anything based on times. You have to look at the form and the shape. The whole point is to be 100% at the BIG ONES....not the Diamond League. Find any argument you want...

Sprintgeezer, you just don't understand sprinting.

Seriously?...You come back wid that? Blake did not get banned for any PED.

Seems like you cried more than Tyson Gay last night. Leave the guys alone. Jamaica 1-2. That's how it goes.

Why speak so authoritatively as if you know when you know its a lie? Lumping Gatlin with Blake makes you feel better and I get that but its pretty scandalous. We all know the substance and we all know how the story went.

How many people tested positive for that? How performance enhancing is it? Gatlin was caught twice and found excuses. Blake tested positive for something that was not banned and the local administration insisted on a 3 month sanction causing him to miss the World Champs.

Who is to say Gay isn't cheating? Leave it there...

Lol...bout Bolt must be using something that is not banned. How long did it take you to concoct that?

wow.

Ilemy,

Was it a part of Bolt's "program" this year to take off to Europe a month ago and seek medical attention?

No. He was falling apart, and needed to be rebuilt. His program, to the extent that he adhered to it, was getting him exactly nowhere. He was going down, visibly. Like you said, you have to look at the form and the shape. His 9.63 was not the result of adherence to a good program, it was the result of pharma correcting a breakdown resulting from either poor adherence to a good program, or an inferior program.

And again, I don't care what he took, because I think that the playing field is level barring corruption favoring Bolt--which, until proven, is mere speculation. All hail Bolt, the fastest man in recorded history.

I do agree with you that the peak period is brief. I also agree with you that Bolt has peaked for the Games, and that we should see a great 200m.

The only guy who played it smart this year was Blake. He didn't burn himself out, he stuck to a program, he stayed home, he improved incrementally. Considering the cold in London, he basically ran a PB in the Olympic final, and you can't ask for anything more. Gatlin was also pretty smart on the season, and Gay was OK, everything considered.

The coaches, like anybody, want to make money. They make money by their athletes winning DL meets. What were the chances of anybody but Blake beating Bolt in the Games? Zero. Might as well make some money on the circuit, because you're not going to cash in from a gold medal in the Games.

Of all perversity, Blake is the guy I feel sorry for. He did everything he could to be the best he could be, and still came up short. The good thing for him is that he still has time.

I also feel sorry for Powell, believe it or not. The only reason that he stumbled was because he was trying too hard, he was driving too low to try to maximize his forward acceleration. He really gave it a serious go--a half-degree higher, and he might have made it, and it would have been one of his most incredible 50m ever.

Bailey, Thompson, and Martina all had good showings.

As for Gay, he has nothing to be ashamed of.

As for Gatlin, who cares? He medaled and went under 9.8

coach d. is that a fact that he is on drugs or just your assumptions? It is crazy how many armchair athletes post on this site about who is on drugs and who is not as if they are experts. In fairness, you should either give the benefit of the doubt to high calibour performers until proven, with facts, to be cheats or assume that every single athlete that competes at this level are on it.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

When Bolt loses, will you stop being an a$$hole on this message board?

I haven't read through the thread, but has Sprintgeezer stopped being an a$$hole on this message board?

What once happened, once wrote:

[quote]Sprintgeezer wrote:

I haven't read through the thread, but has Sprintgeezer stopped being an a$$hole on this message board?

No! He's becoming more of an idiot with each post.

Todd from Texas wrote:

What does it take to get this guy to admit it when he is wrong?

"Yes, I admit it! I was wrong!"

-Sprintgeezer