Dear Olympic Trials "Non-A" Standard Men & Women 1500M Finalists

Gaston wrote:

For Leer, Batty, McNamera, Bayer, Mickowski, and Miller:

there is no point, repeat: NO POINT, to even lacing up the spikes today unless they race for the A. If it goes through 800 in over 2:00, all six of them might as well just step off the track right then and there, because their race for London will already be over.

Race for top three AND < 3:35.5, or don't bother.

Clearly you have never been in the finals of the olympic trials.

In my opinion, and I believe the opinion shared by the majority of athletes and coaches out there is that when you are in what is likely the biggest race of your life, you do exactly what you have done to get there. You put yourself in position to have the best race that you can.

All of the guys that don't have the A have likely tried 20 times in the past 2 years to get the A standard in well paced races with rabbits and perfect conditions and they haven't gotten it done. It is certainly honorable to go out there and say you gave it your all and tried to get the A standard and someone might do it... but if they do then they are just being the rabbit for everyone else.

Lickety Split wrote:

Ex. Andrews is a "1-Trick Pony" as far as tactics

The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.

couch potato fans wrote:

[quote]Gaston wrote:

All of the guys that don't have the A have likely tried 20 times in the past 2 years to get the A standard in well paced races with rabbits and perfect conditions and they haven't gotten it done. It is certainly honorable to go out there and say you gave it your all and tried to get the A standard and someone might do it... but if they do then they are just being the rabbit for everyone else.

I agree, and I would even go one level further, the most cowardly thing to do is "going for it" alone. Your odds of success are 0%. However, you can look like a hero to your grand mother and co worker, who don't understand that by doing so, you never actually tried. You need o have raced a 1500 at a high level, to understand that ( only 0.0001% of the population will understand that).

Trying for me is either making an alliance or just racing to see how high you can rank at the trials (in the second case, you tried to create an alliance with no success, so be it...), maybe the race will go out hard by itself (most likely not, but...). At least you will not have given up in the first 10m of the race by "going for it" alone... That's a real quitter in my mind...

But Conley was lucky enough to have Williams go after her. We saw in the women's 10k what happens when someone without the A goes for it, and others don't go with. Ritz did have to convince Rupp.

kiowavt wrote:

I second that. Conley did not have to ask others to team up with her, best I can judge from afar. And both made it! But I still think it is a 60% chance we will see some slow running in the final by one and all, darn it! Every time I think it won't happen that way, it does.

Montesquieu wrote:

I hereby call going for the "A" standard in the Trials Final "The Ritz-Conley Principle".

This thread is about the 1500.

couch potato fans wrote:

Clearly you have never been in the finals of the olympic trials.

Guilty as charged, but I had no idea I was in such distinguished company! Please elaborate on you experience in racing in the finals of the Olympic trials - your personal insights could be illuminating.

It is certainly honorable to go out there and say you gave it your all and tried to get the A standard and someone might do it... but if they do then they are just being the rabbit for everyone else.

So what? There is certainly no "honor" in placing top 3 with a mighty JV kick over the last 100 after jogging a few 65+ second laps, that is for sure.

You put yourself in position to have the best race that you can.

Agreed. In my opinion, this means racing to MAKE THE TEAM.

For any of the six without the A, going out alone gives maybe 0.01% chance of making it onto the team. Going out with help from others in the six increases the odds a lot, maybe even to 1%. Jogging the first lap gives ZERO point ZERO ZERO percent chance.

Then again, these guys are professional runners performing their jobs. "Having the best race you can" may mean placing 3rd in 3:45 pays better than 8th in 3:37. $$$, yes. Honor, no.

Two things, though: first, the guys who need the "A" are not that far from it; second, a slow race favors those who have the best kicks, and it turns out those are the guys who have the "A" already--especially, Centro, Wheating, Andrews, and Manzano. For Leer et al to finish in the top three will require nothing slower than 1:57.

1. This is a great thread.

2. In that Webb video from 2004, he goes 1:57.2, then throws down a 55.2 for 2:52.4 and then 43 point. If that happens today, it's possible he's walked down. Webb said in his post-trial interview that he's helped raise the bar for everyone else adn he's right. The guys nowadays are way better than 8 years ago.

3. The Byers video also shows how hard it's going to be for anyone leading. We put that video up to inspire the non-A competitors but we hope they didn't realize he ended up in 3:30 - nowhere close to the 'A'.

If I was an agent coach of the guys without the 'A', I'd get them together and have a meeting and said "Allrihgt, let's draw straws. who leads lap 1, who leads lap 2?"

They should do it on tv right before they warmup or right before they start. It would make it way more entertaining.

rojo wrote:

[quote]

2. In that Webb video from 2004, he goes 1:57.2, then throws down a 55.2 for 2:52.4 and then 43 point. If that happens today, it's possible he's walked down. Webb said in his post-trial interview that he's helped raise the bar for everyone else adn he's right. The guys nowadays are way better than 8 years ago

.

If somebody tries this tonight (an A or a non A), it will look like something like this (2005 world Chps)

Doing amateur psychology based on their interviews...

Mickowski said straight up he's going to go for it. He doesn't want to get tripped plus he may be a little dinged up, so he may be more open to leading and sacrificing himself.

Leer came in 4th in 2008 and will likely go for it especially if he gets a little help. He is definitely not in the "I'm just happy to be here" state of mind.

McNamara sounds like he'll go for it only if he gets help, otherwise it sounds like he'll be satisfied coming in the top 3 and demonstrating that he's "worthy" of being an Olympian despite not having the A.

The other 3 come off as just happy to be there and give the impression that "there's always 2016". But I do see Batty going for it IF the above 3 all go for it too, but if only 1 or 2 guys go for it, I see him hanging back.

Andrews, Torrence and See are the only ones who actually ran the A this year. Everyone else is racing into shape. Plus in their races Andrews and Torrence weren't able to run down the leaders with their kick. So I think the 6 with A are more vulnerable if the pace goes hard.

Just one track fan's opinion. And no, I don't have any Oly trials experience.

An alternate ending to this is that McNamara/Leer pays Mickowski to lead it. Mickowski is the only current non A in the final that i can't see getting the A tonight under any scenario (I could be wrong since the reason for his slow SB may just be that he never got in a fast race)

McNamara took the pace a bit last year. He's the closest to the A standard. I bet he'll make an early move. I could see Mickowski taking it out at the gun. Bayer has been sitting back in races since NCAA's. He trailed Andrews in the prelim to advance. Leer could take the pace although he's placed high at the US championships for his late kick. He was always too far back though. I could see Torrence taking the lead early because he's very fit.

Lickety Split wrote:

Miles Batty Asics

Jordan McNamara Nike / Oregon TC Elite

Andrew Bayer Indiana University

John Mickowski Unattached

Craig Miller New Balance

William Leer Nike

Which one "steps up" to the plate and goes for it ... Tom Byers style?

Another scenario that we did not talk about is that there are 6 that do have the A. So even if the race is won in 3:45, there will be 3 As that will stay at home.

Let's rank the kickers

1 - Andrews

2 - Centro

3 - Wheating

4 - Manzano

Maybe See and/or Torrence could also benefit from a faster pace. They could also be part of that alliance... Or alternate members at least...

Centro, Wheating and Manzano have not run standard this year, so perhaps a fast race is not advantageous for them anyway...

Perhaps he was trying to emulate this.

{link]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NyRbNZ4vOE

I agree, I want the best in London.... However, don't championship races come down to who is the best last lapper? Other than El G no one in recent history has had the strength to take a race over with 800 left and still win. The medalists will be the guys that can run 50.XX on the last lap, not come through in 1:51 and expect to hold onto a top three spot. Every now and then there is a teammate (a la Adil Kaouch of Morocco) who sacrifices their chances to help a countryman but I don't see that happening especially when some of the favorites love to wait until the last 200 meters.

David Torrence posted this on facebook just now

"In the 50's they said that if a man would break 4min in the mile, his heart would burst from the effort. Modern science and a brave individual proved this to be false. I myself have even accomplished this once inconceivable feat. But what if those scientists weren't wrong? Maybe nobody has really pushed themselves THAT far? I don't know, I guess there's too many variables to consider. But what I do know, is this:

Today is a good day to die."

He has the standard but this leads me to believe he is fit and ready for a fast pace. After all the beginning of that Pre quote is "The best pace is a suicide pace".

NA wrote:

I agree, I want the best in London.... However, don't championship races come down to who is the best last lapper? Other than El G no one in recent history has had the strength to take a race over with 800 left and still win. The medalists will be the guys that can run 50.XX on the last lap, not come through in 1:51 and expect to hold onto a top three spot. Every now and then there is a teammate (a la Adil Kaouch of Morocco) who sacrifices their chances to help a countryman but I don't see that happening especially when some of the favorites love to wait until the last 200 meters.

This year I would not be surprised to see Kiprop try and win from the front. He looks to be extremely fit and has had problems timing a kick when running from behind.

Lickety Split wrote:

To date, particularly with respect to the men, the preliminaries have been ridiculous and do not simulate what are Olympians will experience this summer in London. In other words, heats that will probably require PRs to advance versus this flawed idea that "holding back" will save you energy for the next race.

Well, Centro won his semi-final in last year's WC's in 3:46, not quite a PR.

In the 2008 Olympics, the semis were won in 3:37, not A standard times.

Fast times do not advance people in world class events.

But world class ability to close very fast is required.

You want big kickers to make the US team.

We will know soon enough what is going to happen...