ventolin^3 wrote:
some guys you feel are cheats - he was one
his best was 12'59 & then went 12'50 !
you can tell when a guy looks 12'50 calibre - he never did
good they got him
just like when you look at Alan Webb run and deduce there is absolutely no way in hell he could ever legitally run 1.43 and a 3.46 mile?
Yeah I know what you mean.
kolej grad wrote:
I wonder ... will this be the year we finally learn that elite distance running is just as dirty as the TdF, and weightlifting, and so many other sports from years past?!
The TDF isn't dirty, its Cycling in general.
Just like the Olympics aren't dirty, its the sport as a whole.
Retroactively catching a cheater isn't impressive and doesn't do anything productive for the sport.
I still don't see why they don't just legalize is all, remove the advantages and people cheat the system, allow them and people can't cheat anymore and suddenly all the cheaters have a level field against them.
TLW wrote:
I was merely posting times from the 10k progression with the notes of when EPO became widely available (1989) and when the EPO test was developed (2000).
The massive decrease of the 10k in the 90s at the same time EPO starts to become available and utilized by athletes cannot be overlooked.
Athletes of that caliber (IE; East Africans), in the modern age (not the 1960s like you brought up with Clarke) utilizing fast tracks, modern training principals, rabbits and financial incentives dropping 45 seconds off the 10k world record. It is obvious that EPO was used and in the span of 5 years, 45 seconds slashed from the record.
How is it that Kenyans and Ethiopians had free reign on EPO in this era but the Americans didn't touch the stuff, since all their records were stuck in the 1980s until recently?
EPO works but you have to have talent too. EPO + Talent = World Record. Other than Bob and Todd, who did we have?
Left Said Fred wrote:
TLW wrote:I was merely posting times from the 10k progression with the notes of when EPO became widely available (1989) and when the EPO test was developed (2000).
The massive decrease of the 10k in the 90s at the same time EPO starts to become available and utilized by athletes cannot be overlooked.
Athletes of that caliber (IE; East Africans), in the modern age (not the 1960s like you brought up with Clarke) utilizing fast tracks, modern training principals, rabbits and financial incentives dropping 45 seconds off the 10k world record. It is obvious that EPO was used and in the span of 5 years, 45 seconds slashed from the record.
How is it that Kenyans and Ethiopians had free reign on EPO in this era but the Americans didn't touch the stuff, since all their records were stuck in the 1980s until recently?
More importantly, this TLW genius keeps harping on world records dropping in the 90s, without acknowledging the primary point lodged against him--that the times in general got better, and stayed better even after the various tests he talks about came along. If EPO was responsible for 45 seconds coming off the 10k WR, and EPO testing started in 2000, and CERA testing started in 2008, why did so many guys run within 30-40 seconds of the current WR last year? I'm not arguing for or against those guys being on drugs, just pointing out that what TLW thinks is some kid of iron-clad argument is actually intensely self-contradictory as currently formulated. I think TLW is probably too pessimistic and Avocado too optimistic, but in terms of making sense logically Avocado is destroying this yahoo in the argument.
TLW wrote:
In the 1990s, EPO use caused 45 second drop because of drug use, yes. It's fairly obvious if you look at the 10k progression.
I think we all agree that in the late 70s the Africans started emerging on the scene (unlike Clarke's era), all countries were participating in the sport (unlike Clarke's era). The sport was developed and people were training correctly, we had modern tracks, rabbits, etc.
The world record up until the early 90s took a steady progression through the 70s and 80s, boom EPO arrives, 45 seconds off the record in 5 years, the tests arrive for EPO and the progression of not only the 10k, but 5k record come to a halt.
My point being that there were all the modern amenities ($$$, rabbits, tracks, training) in the 80s as well as 2000+, but why was there a huge decrees in time in a period where EPO first became available and the EPO test was developed.
Because EPO was used by athletes to drop world records.
K. Bekele's performances after 2000? Google CERA, which was a new form of EPO that was undetectable by urine test and only really started being tested for in 2008. Widely used before 2008 by both runners and cyclists.
The earliest CERA was available was in 2007. What then?
The earliest CERA was available was in 2007. What then?[/quote]
Someone ran 2:04;26 in 2007 :-)
TLW wrote:
EPO works but you have to have talent too. EPO + Talent = World Record. Other than Bob and Todd, who did we have?
So America's middle and long distance runners were so untalented in 1999 that even on all the EPO they could pump into their veins that only two US men could break 13:18 and only two US men could break 3:35 and only two US men could break 28:00?
You say, "who did we have?" Who does America have now? Where did Chris Derrick come from? Where did Solinsky come from? Where did Webb come from? Where did Tegenkamp come from? Where did Manzano or Centrowitz come from?
It makes no sense to say that all the best East Africans were on EPO prior to 2000 and on CERA from 2007-2008 (but apparently, not on either from 2001 to 2006) and yet none of the Americans were. BALCO was in full swing then and Sprint Capitol was cleaning up. Where was the EPO in the US then?
train hard wrote:
The earliest CERA was available was in 2007. What then?
Someone ran 2:04;26 in 2007 :-)[/quote]
Someone ran 3:26.1 in 2001. Someone ran 12:37.35 in 2004. Someone ran 26:17 in 2005. All of which are superior to 2:04:26.
TLW wrote:
In the 1990s, EPO use caused 45 second drop because of drug use, yes. It's fairly obvious if you look at the 10k progression.
I think we all agree that in the late 70s the Africans started emerging on the scene (unlike Clarke's era), all countries were participating in the sport (unlike Clarke's era). The sport was developed and people were training correctly, we had modern tracks, rabbits, etc.
The world record up until the early 90s took a steady progression through the 70s and 80s, boom EPO arrives, 45 seconds off the record in 5 years, the tests arrive for EPO and the progression of not only the 10k, but 5k record come to a halt.
My point being that there were all the modern amenities ($$$, rabbits, tracks, training) in the 80s as well as 2000+, but why was there a huge decrees in time in a period where EPO first became available and the EPO test was developed.
Because EPO was used by athletes to drop world records.
K. Bekele's performances after 2000? Google CERA, which was a new form of EPO that was undetectable by urine test and only really started being tested for in 2008. Widely used before 2008 by both runners and cyclists.
Well, I took your advice and google'd CERA. I then came upon the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (http://cera.govt.nz/). Because it's set in New Zealand, I can only suppose you're referring to EPO use by New Zealand athletes. Can you name them?
TLW wrote:
I was merely posting times from the 10k progression with the notes of when EPO became widely available (1989) and when the EPO test was developed (2000).
The massive decrease of the 10k in the 90s at the same time EPO starts to become available and utilized by athletes cannot be overlooked.
So lets see if I've got this right, when east african and north african men started running sub 27 in the early 1990's, that was due to EPO?
TLW wrote:
K. Bekele's performances after 2000? Google CERA, which was a new form of EPO that was undetectable by urine test and only really started being tested for in 2008. Widely used before 2008 by both runners and cyclists.
So we should also accept the even faster times by K. Bekele in 2004 (26:20.31) and 2005 (26:17.53) are due to CERA?
Even though CERA was unlikely to ever be seen outside a lab in 2006, let alone 2005 or 2004. Can we find any evidence it even existed in sufficient quantities for an athlete to be using CERA in 2004?
But even if we accept that, how do we explain the recent sub 27 times in 2010-2011, by athletes training in Oregan - Solinsky, Farah and Rupp, beating those previous EPO performances? Just talent, dedication, hard work?
What about the sub 2:20 women's marathon performances from 2001 (Catherine Ndereba), though 2002/2003 (Paula), 2005 (Noguchi) and 2006 (Deena Kastor)? All during the era when EPO was detectable, but CERA not yet available? Then from mid 2006 to 2011, only one sub 2:20 by that German woman (born in Kazakhstan in the old USSR)?
What were those women using from 2001 to 2006?
Or do fast times by east african and north african men correlate to doping, but women's marathon times don't?
Given the recent allegation about Kenya, if Kenyan marathon men are using EPO, then why don't they give some to their women so they can run sub 2:15?
He was 2nd in Beijing, right? I thought he ran a very smart race to get 2nd.
ggg wrote:
Gharib is dirty. Hopefully they will bust him soon.
The TdF and Olympics are not dirtier than The major US sports (Football, Basball, Basketball) they just have some sort of actual testing, so on occassion people get caught.
Realep2 wrote:
The TdF and Olympics are not dirtier than The major US sports (Football, Basball, Basketball) they just have some sort of actual testing, so on occassion people get caught.
Nobody is talking about Major US sports, we are talking about the most obscure one of them all in Track and Field.
Pretty dramatic drop when you plot TLW's data
TLW wrote:
EPO works but you have to have talent too. EPO + Talent = World Record. Other than Bob and Todd, who did we have?
TLW wrote:
...
Again, just look at all the 1500, 5k, 10k times and see when the top 10 times were majorly run. It's not a secret.
You'll see a huge surge before the EPO test, right up until testing began than slow down. You will see a things start to speed up in the mid-2000s when CERA was undetectable.
OK Let's look at the times. Using 1989 (27:08.23) as the boundary, I found 132 better performances by 63 persons between 1990 and 2011.
The 63 athletes, by country:
38 (KEN)
14 (ETH)
2 (MAR) (ERI) (USA)
1 (QAT) (UGA) (TAN) (BEL) (ENG)
So if EPO is the main cause, it seems to be only benefiting Kenya and Ethiopia, despite it's worldwide availability. This isn't the case, for example, with cycling.
If we break down these top-132 10,000m times by year, starting at 1990 until 2011:
0,0,0,2,1,3,5,3,3,3,2,2,7,10,12,13,7,17,15,7,3,17
Hmmm. What about that? Look at the data. No huge surge in the 1990's. A little peak in 1996. Huge surge between 2002-2005 though, which continues up to 2011, with a couple of exceptions. Overall, looks like a normal progression, with only minor variations, over the whole period.
11 athletes improved on the mark in the 1990's, while 52 did better in the 2000's.
What about America and Europe? Looking at 1500m, 5000m, and 10000m, record progressions, we don't find any similar pattern at all that could be called a huge surge in 1990, or after mid-2000s.
World 1500m record progression? Only 2 guys beat Cram and Ovett in the 1990's, by only 3 seconds.
What about half-marathon, or marathon progressions? In the 1990's, for the marathon, only two performances improved about 1 minute, from 2:06:50 to 2:05:42. Between 1990-1998, for the half-marathon, it looks like also about 1 minute, dropping from 60:46 to 59:43(*), until Paul Tergat dropped the record another 26 seconds to 59:17.
So looking at the times, which are not secret, the data mostly contradicts your EPO conclusions. The 10K times surely dropped, but this was due mainly to 2 or 3 talented athletes. The peak of the top-132 10,000m times were run after 2002, in a fairly increasing progression. Maybe the half-marathon shows an enormous drop too, but it's harder to tell with road races.
It looks like the main reason for most of the drops in times are due to long term talented athletes (not one hit wonders with miraculous improvements), and occasionally by a rivalry between two top talents.
NativeSon wrote:
There you go.
Seriously, there is a difference between Moroccans and Ethiopia.
Yeah. The IAAF will happily catch a Moroccan because everyone knows they're filthy anyway.
The won't catch an Ethiopian or Kenyan because they're whiter than white in the eyes of casual followers and naive howling fanboys.
Talent + EPO = WRs going to previously unbelievable levels.
This is what happened. Stop pretending that nations that you can simply walk into a high street shop and purchase EPO don't take advantage of this, particularly when they've got a dodgy doctor/agent/coach to do it for them and take half their money when they win.
It's really really stupid to think that the distance running world is not absolutely filthy and that the fact that nothing is done about it is the main problem.
gramthlete wrote:
NativeSon wrote:There you go.
Seriously, there is a difference between Moroccans and Ethiopia.
Of course I'm no expert, but I would say that Moroccans are people, and Ethiopia is a country.
Thank you for your correction but you are not helping the situation. Just address what I raised; that there is a big difference when it comes to doping between the Moroccans and the Ethiopians. You do realise that. Don't you?
Every time there is something about doping, I feel the must to intervene, also if many continue to consider me (for my opinions) a doper or a stupid, in spite of my activity and the athletes I coach.
To look at the times without considering other points is something totally wrong. For example, in the period between 2007 / 2010 there were no competitions of 10000m in big meetings, and the only races were in the Championships (World / Olympic), with tactical developments. When last year Eugene started to organise 10000m again, and the same happened in Bruxelles, immediately a lot of athletes ran again under 27'.
About doping, you don't have any idea where top athletes can arrive. In 2003 I was for 50 days with Nicholas Kemboi in Switzerland, 20 days in Davos and one month in St. Moritz. He came with PB of 13'26" and 28'19", and I was already his coach from 2002, but never I had the opportunity to stay with him long time. We were in the same room, so I know very well what he used : NOTHING, no vitamins, no iron, no supplements. I discovered some quality I didn't know (for example, he had very good speed and I supposed was slow because never able to close last lap fast), and, working in that direction, he ran 26'30" in Bruxelles, almost beating Haile still at the top in 10000m.
Now I have a new guy, Geoffrey Kirui, born in 1993 (so junior), that last year ran in 26'55" and one week ago in Eugene, during the Kenyan Trials, was 5th in 27'08" after going in front during the last km. This guy lives in Keringet (2670m of altitude), doesn't have any track, follows my programs with a little group (including his younger brother Gilbert, now 18, already running steeple in 8'11"), together the World Junior Champion of CC, still 17, Faith Kipyegon, that this year ran her first 1500m in international field in 4'03"68 in Shanghai.
All these young athletes frequent a school build by people of Nederland using money of a fundation. The school has a specific period, every day, for training the athletes, and was created for giving education to some of the best young runners of the area. In that village there is nothing : is the place producing the best mineral water of Kenya, and the mountain is very near.
Geoffrey is my 8th athletes under 27', and I don't include the winner of Trials, Wilson Kiprop, because he ran only 27'01"98 (it was the first time he ran at sea level on track).
Somebody knowing these places, the life of these young athletes, the target of education of the school, can really think ALL THESE YOUNG ATHLETES ARE ON DOPING ?
You speak abou the "clean" limit of 27'08" (I don't know based on what...). Do you know that 27 years ago not talented Africans living in altitude, but 2 Portugueses living and training at sea level, ond of them already 37 years old, ran 27'13" (with last lap in 53") and 27'17" many years before EPO ?
Do you know Ron Clarke, in one solution and completely alone (at that time, pacers were not allowed), betterd his WR from 28'15" in 27'39" with a jump of 36" in one competition ?
Do you know Kenenisa was able to finish, when 18, the last 300m in 37"5 when betterd the WJR of 3000m in 7'30" ?
Do you know Jim Ryun, of course without any drug, with cinder track and no opponents, was able running 3'33"1 in 1967 when still junior ?
Do you know that some of the best perfromances of today, that the most part of you think under doping, DON'T ALLOW THE ATHLETES IN STAYING IN TOP 50 ALL TIME ?
The fact is that very few people know athletics and its history, and everything seems over the human possibilities. But this is not the best era for middle distances, is the best for Marathon because before Marathon was not important as today, and the training system was only "general" and not "specific". And, because the best athletes in 5000 and 10000m, having attitude for longer distances, today move to marathon in their prime BECAUSE OF FINANCIAL REASONS, consequently the performances on the track become weaker.
At least, I'm very happy if the biological passport can work, and we can have more correct knowledge about the last 5 years (the samples are under new tests).
And after this, when people in letsrun discover that NOBODY OF THE TOP KENYANS / ETHIOPIANS HAS A BLOOD PROFILE OUT OF THE NORMALITY (may be somebody can have his blood level "dancing", but I can bet are weak athletes, supposing to change their level using drugs, something that NEVER can happen), of course you can think again that the biological passport is a joke, etc etc.....
