Kenyan Olympic team - What now?

Email from Nairobi wrote:

Would Kirui have gone with the surge in London, and blown up, if he didn't think he needed the win?

This is the second post where someone said that the pressure of placing high caused Kirui to not race well.

Isn't he just going to face the pressure of placing high again in the Olympics against great runners?

The Olympic field looks like it is going to be much tougher than the World Championship fields.

Now I completely agree that AK should have announced at least a year ago that your spring 2012 marathon would determine your place on the team. Then they could prepare.

To say six months ago - you are on the team - and then one month ago say - wait you have to run well again next month - that does not help in your preperation.

I just cannot imagine how these guys can plan their marathon training and racing without being given clear guidance well ahead of time.

They all knew they had to be ready for August 2012. But no one knew how to get there.

AK seems to be a pretty awful organization.

In contrast, the date for the US Trials was announced nearly two years prior to the the Trials race. So the athletes had nearly two years to plan their training and racing schedules and knew exactly what they had to do to make it to the Olympics.

Meb, Abdi and Hall had a clear path to the Olympics and should be well prepared to compete well in August.

Of course the talent gap between them and the Kenyans is huge.

But if an American sneaks in and gets a medal ahead of a Kenyan, or even places ahead of one, then I would point to this selection system as a reason why.

The way AK screwed up this selection process is going to cost them an Olympic gold in the marathon. I see Kenya getting no medals in the men's marathon.

Whomever they send I am sure will medal.

lukas versibikus, janson oshier, elies gedyon

word is that they have all been training for the marathon and switched to kenyan citizenship.

letsrun from kenya wrote:

the WR is not considered a big deal in kenya

Nutella1 wrote:

I am pretty sure you're wrong about this, after all, Makau took the WR away from an Ethiopian!

I don't think it's a small deal - it definitely increased Tergat's already-huge esteem when he grabbed it. (Imagine that breaking 2:05 was once a monumental achievement by basically the GOAT runner-up of the time.)

BUT I think that AK has been consistent in their statements that proven success in unpaced races is important for them. They know from long painful experience that the best time-trialist isn't always going to win a championship race.

For that reason, I think that KIRUI is in. Repeat WC is hard to ignore, and as I've mentioned before AK selectors have a habit of giving the nod to previous winners even without quick times - remember Eric Wainana. And Kirui has times, too.

I think that KIPSANG running courageously and taking the win against a stacked field (including many of the Kenyan shortlist as well as international comp) can't be denied a spot.

The last spot is tough. I would put it down to Mosop and Mutai - both ran ridiculous course-record marathons in spring and fall, 2011. Mosop at least put down a solid time in Rotterdam, while Mutai DNFd Boston. Also, I think that AK has had some mild clashes with AK over running in their camps, racing abroad, etc - my sense is that the selectors will be glad to be given an excuse to leave him of the team, and a DNF makes it easy (if wrong) for them to say he hasn't proven fitness. So I say MOSOP gets it.

As for the alternate spot, Mutai isn't going to want it. He will regroup and take aim at a massive fall performance and isn't going to plan training around an alternate spot. I somehow doubt Makau would either - he can defend his Berlin title and WR for huge money - much better prospect than being alternate. E Mutai unfortunately underperformed in London. I have a suspicion that AK would bend their own rules to put LEL on the team given his pretty undeniable comeback, and that he'd take it. The guys has been added to fields at the last minute and performed before, and especially on the exit side of career I think would be more than willing to leave his name in the hat in case of injury to the others.

SO, I'm calling KIRUI, KIPSANG, MOSOP for the team, and taking long odds predicting LEL as alternate. We'll see!

* wrote:

AK seems to be a pretty awful organization.

Dingdingding! Winning post!

They are inconsistent, capricious and frankly spiteful. They make USATF look good, which is no small feat.

Sorry, mistyped:

I think that *Mutai* has had some mild clashes with AK over running in their camps, racing abroad, etc - my sense is that the selectors will be glad to be given an excuse to leave him off the team, and a DNF makes it easy (if wrong) for them to say he hasn't proven fitness.

@running_comment wrote:

Sorry, mistyped:

I think that *Mutai* has had some mild clashes with AK over running in their camps, racing abroad, etc - my sense is that the selectors will be glad to be given an excuse to leave him off the team, and a DNF makes it easy (if wrong) for them to say he hasn't proven fitness.

Yep - don't ignore the off-the-road politics involved as well. AK can afford (or think they can) to make some "tough" decisions and still have a team in contention to sweep.

Your argument is very convincing! You have factored in everything including the AK politics. I think your lineup will be in the Olympics. And you choice of Martin Lel as alternate plays out well. G. Mutai basically loses due to the Ak politics. At the games, I hope Mosop will be on because sometimes he is just not there. A case in point is 2010 at the world half marathon champs. There he bonked. But so far, he seems to be doing fine in the marathon. Hopefully that stays the same.

No matter what there will be a marathoner left home who could have been an Olympic Champ.

what they will probably choose:

1. Wilson Kipsang

2. Geoffrey Mutai

3. Patrick Makau

4. Abel Kirui

5. Moses Mosop

6. E. Mutai.

All six make a good case, but certainly the top 3 have the best cases to be made. (best right now, fastest all time and best last year, and world record holder)

Kirui will be the most consistent choice

Mosop has run fast several times and may have the most potential

Mutai, London record holder.

I posted this in the Tadese thread but it belongs here of course.

I think the Kenyans could really regret all these super fast spring marathons, so maybe we could have a surprise? But really, I think one of them will be able to take it. On the other hand, the Ethiopians sometimes organize their preparation better by the central coaching.

I'm just thinking about my Kenyan Olympic team. I guess I would go with Kipsang and Mosop. Third spot would be between Makau and G. Mutai, but if Makau is injured....Abel Kirui was the next Kenyan in London (because M. Lel wasnt on selection list).

So Kipsang,Mosop,Kirui (or Makau if the injury is not bad and he shows 60:00 form). I know nearly all of letsrun would choose G.Mutai over Kirui and Makau. In my eyes he has proven that he is the best over difficult hilly courses - NY, Boston. But London is flat like Berlin.

Some stats - marathons run are only those under 2:10:30

Geoffrey Mutai: 6 Marathons, avg. position: 1,33 (PBs: 59:30, 2:04:55*)

Wilson Kipsang: 4 Marathons, avg. position: 1,5 (PBs: 58:59, 2:03:42)

Patrick Makau: 5 Marathons, avg. position: 2 (PBs: 58:52, 2:03:38)

Moses Mosop: 3 Marathons, avg. position: 2 (PBs: 59:20, 2:05:03)

Abel Kirui: 7 Marathons, avg. position: 2,71 (PBs: 60:11, 2:05:04)

Emmanuel Mutai: 9 Marathons, avg. position: 2,77 (PBs: 60:03, 2:04:40)

@running_comment wrote:

* wrote:

AK seems to be a pretty awful organization.

Dingdingding! Winning post!

They are inconsistent, capricious and frankly spiteful. They make USATF look good, which is no small feat.

There is plenty wrong w/ USATF but we have the fairest, most transparent system for selecting athletes for World Champs and Olympics. Remember that any time somebody proposes any kind of selection system.

Kipsang

Mutai g

Lel

With mosop as first alternate

With makau as second alternate

Kirui as third alternate

If the Kenyans want to increase the likelihood that they medal in the marathon, they need to take Lel. He is the Kenyan with the best record of running marathons in London. If he starts, he will medal.

Kipsang G.Mutai Mosop

Simple.

probably already been said, but wouldn't it be something if the u.s. had this problem? what a list of runners kenya has to choose from. the fact they only get three makes it more likely a non-kenyan (or non-ethiopian) will win.

* wrote:

AK seems to be a pretty awful organization.

@running_comment wrote:

Dingdingding! Winning post!

They are inconsistent, capricious and frankly spiteful. They make USATF look good, which is no small feat.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

There is plenty wrong w/ USATF but we have the fairest, most transparent system for selecting athletes for World Champs and Olympics. Remember that any time somebody proposes any kind of selection system.

Can't disagree with you there. First three across the line - doesn't get much more transparent than that!

The Kenyan marathon selection is just inviting corruption, as their system in every other event (first two at trials plus "selector's choice") is almost as bad.

Meanwhile, I have been trying to decipher the Canadian standards. B? A? A+?? Rising Star??? I'd rather do my taxes...