Bekele is BACK

Yes Bekele is back and he is incredible. Sure he's the best ever.

However I think he's in for his toughest Oly 10K yet. Jeilan and Merga ain't gonna hand it to him. Farah will be hungry after last year's silver. Then there are the Kenyans.

Bekele ran a great race today but he has a big job ahead.

henrybish wrote:

I just watched the video of his race.

That was utterly phenomenal. He looked incredibly powerful. It seemed like he was sprinting the whole way.

Same here. Just astonishing, the power and ease of his stride. Ease isn't quite the right word, because he's clearly working. But his work seems to propel him longer and higher with each stride; he seems to bounce without bouncing, if that makes any sense. He just rockets. It's inspiring. 99.9% of runners, no matter how good, don't look like that.

The last time I remember being that impressed with a runner's stride during a road race was when Haile G. set the world half-marathon record in Phoenix a few years back.

Kicker12345 wrote:

The reason I wouldn't have him as favourite BEFORE today was because of his injury problems and recent run in edinburgh. You can be pretty sure Farah and co would show up in 26:30-40 shape in London, but the chances of bekele being in better shape than that were below 50pc, UNTIL TODAY. In my opinion, that made farah or jeilan the favourite. Knowing the shape bekele is in now, and the fact that he seems to have a handle on his injury problems, of course he is now the favourite. He is the far superior athlete to any of them at his best. It's just a question of if he can get to london in that shape. Lets hope he does.

I see what you are getting at, but you have to look at it a different way. Has Mo Farah ever won an important 10,000m race? Bekele has never lost one until last Summer's WC.

You say that others will show up in 26:30-40 shape, but most of the top runners have not actually run 26:30 or even 26:40. They don't improve like a kid in HS will, just because someone ran 26:45 last year does not mean that they will improve linearly in 12 months. Look at what has happened to Solinsky, Ritz, and Bekele himself?

It is likely for those who are older than 25-26 that they will be about as fast as their current PR for London. Bekele is the only one who has run considerably faster than the knot at 26:45-ish. Also, he has demonstrated that he is the most consistent winner of all-time. He is also one of the most consistent at being in shape when it counts and running fast each year ... of all-time.

george oscar bluth wrote:

He's the best 10000m runner of all-time, of course he can dispense a field like that with relative ease.

True, the main thing though is the time he ran, 27.49 to Mottram's course record of 28.35. Remembering Mottram ran that in the middle of his three year peak in 2005 i.e. 12.55 5k, 3.49 mile, 7.32 3k, 3rd 5k WC, etc (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Mottram). Extrapalate that out and it makes Kenny's run pretty impressive and would indicate Bekele could possibly be, with another three months training, be in as good a form as he's ever been and favourite for the 10k gold. All subject to staying injury free of course.

There is a guy named Rudisha. I think you can count on him for gold. The steeplechase has been Kenyan affair for awhile. As of right now, no one is threatening their gold there. Summer Marathoning is such a hard animal, it's pretty hard to predict that race. The Ethiopians have not done much there since Abebe Bikila in the sixties. And I am pretty sure the Kenyan women will get a couple of distance golds also.

Mottram was jogging through. if you apply the same logic to

Martinez' 29.00 (at age 41), it indicates sub-28 which ain't gonna happen.

george oscar bluth wrote:

If you didn't think that Bekele was going to win the 10000m this year, you don't know much about running.

Uhhh... That's what they were saying last year at WC. He didn't do that well as I recall. Nothing is written in stone. Bekele isn't in his prime anymore. He is great! The greatest 10000 man ever, but it isn't a certainty.

ggg wrote:

if you apply the same logic to Martinez' 29.00 (at age 41), it indicates sub-28 which ain't gonna happen.

Your right but I'm not applying the same logic to a 40 year old of Martinez' ability, it's a slow downhill decline, performance wise, for him. But for a 30 year old of Bekele's ability, that's another proposition.

no it is the same proposition.

ggg wrote:

no it is the same proposition.

That's as may be, but I'm not applying it.

Martinez ran around 28-20 for 10k last year at Bislett, not all that far away from a sub 28.

ggg wrote:

Mottram was jogging through. if you apply the same logic to

Martinez' 29.00 (at age 41), it indicates sub-28 which ain't gonna happen.

If you watched Bekele, he may not have been jogging, but he certainly looked like he wasn't under any pressue. He also ran the first 2k or so with the pack; if he had gone from the gun, he would have had easily run 10 seconds quicker.

The question is not whether Bekele can run faster than anybody else, he proved that again in Brussels last year. The question is whether he will show up in top form. In Edinburgh, he did not (and lost badly), but judging by his run in Dublin, there is a high probability that everyone else will be racing for second place. At least Farah and Rupp can take some comfort in "Athletics Kenya", who seem determined to at least give them a chance for a medal.

"The German athletics federation has filed a criminal complaint against high-profile Dutch agent Jos Hermens and a Spanish doctor connected to doping allegations.

Doctor Miguel Anguel Peraita and Hermens, whose clients have included Ethiopian long-distance greats Haile Gebrselassie and KENENISA BEKELE are accused of trafficking banned substances. "

agip wrote:looks like there is a good change kenya wins zero golds in mens athletics in London

Um, does the 800m not count as athletics anymore?

Of all the men's track events, Rudisha in the 800 is probably the single gold I would be MOST likely to bet on. (Truly remarkable given the unpredictable nature of the race.) Lagat FTW in the 5000 looks very good put not a lock in a fast race. Everything else I wouldn't put up money, including the sprints.

george oscar bluth wrote:

so long as he stayed healthy through 2012, no one, certainly not Ibrahim or Mo, was going to beat him

"...certainly not Ibrahim or Mo"?

WTF? What does that even mean?

Are you saying that last year's WC 1-2 pair were the runners LEAST likely to beat Bekele? Whose chances would you put above them, if you don't mind my asking?

@running_comment wrote:

Um, does the 800m not count as athletics anymore?

Of all the men's track events, Rudisha in the 800 is probably the single gold I would be MOST likely to bet on. (Truly remarkable given the unpredictable nature of the race.) Lagat FTW in the 5000 looks very good put not a lock in a fast race. Everything else I wouldn't put up money, including the sprints.

Um, how in the world could you think Lagat is even remotely close to a good bet FTW? I'd put both Bekele and Farah as better bets. Saying Bernard has a 20% shot is probably more realistic than saying he looks very good FTW.

@running_comment wrote:

Um, does the 800m not count as athletics anymore?

Of all the men's track events, Rudisha in the 800 is probably the single gold I would be MOST likely to bet on. (Truly remarkable given the unpredictable nature of the race.) Lagat FTW in the 5000 looks very good put not a lock in a fast race. Everything else I wouldn't put up money, including the sprints.

Another point of view wrote:

Um, how in the world could you think Lagat is even remotely close to a good bet FTW? I'd put both Bekele and Farah as better bets. Saying Bernard has a 20% shot is probably more realistic than saying he looks very good FTW.

Fair enough. But Lagat is absolutely on fire, and we've all seen many, many WC and Olympic 5000s turn into slow affairs favoring 1500/5000 guys over 5000/10000 guys. Like I said, Lagat's odds go way down in a fast race. But I'd still pick him for the gold over KB or MF in the London 5000. I obviously wouldn't suggest there's no room for debate, and your 20% is a reasonable number.

Anyway, my point was that you'd foolish to bet against any single runner other than Rudisha in the 800, contrary to the other poster who said Kenya was looking like NO golds.

[quote]Anyway, my point was that you'd foolish to bet against any single runner other than Rudisha in the 800... [quote]

Reminds me of the 2000 Sydney Olympics 1500m Final, Seb Coe was the co-commentator here on Australian TV and said just prior to the start "I'd put my house on El Guerrouj winning this".

Moronic wrote:

Reminds me of the 2000 Sydney Olympics 1500m Final, Seb Coe was the co-commentator here on Australian TV and said just prior to the start "I'd put my house on El Guerrouj winning this".

You. Just. Don't. Get. It.

I didn't say that I am betting on Rudisha - I'm not. I said that he is closest thing to something I would bet on. Read again, more slowly if it helps: "Rudisha in the 800 is probably the single gold I would be MOST likely to bet on."

There is no INDIVIDUAL I would bet on rather than him. He is the closest there is to a sure thing in all of the men's track events, without question. That doesn't mean he IS a sure thing, though.

Is this actually confusing to you?