Men's US Olympic 1500m team 2012

swarthy wrote:

He's not white enough to be a reliable loser.

Does this mean that Centro is not loser enough to be a reliable white?

A few thoughts:

1. For now, add Andrews to the list. Obviously that could change, but his Oxy performance suggests some obvious 1500 talent that will translate well to the tactical kind of race you can expect in a championship. If he makes it to the final, I would count on him making the team.

2. Manzano remains a question mark as ever, but I will say this much: over the past few seasons, he has tended to put up sub-par times after coming down from altitude training, which would seem to be the case with this Oxy performance. Because of that, I'm not inclined to take that race as indicative of overall fitness; come Trials, I expect we'll see the the same old fast-kicking Leo.

3. My biggest question mark, though, is Brown. He has gotten the A-standard, but in a race against a bunch of other A-standard types, that won't mean much. What's more, I'm still waiting for him to prove himself a smart racer when the time comes; his U.S. Championship performance last year really exposed some of his tactical weaknesses, and I can't help wonder if he's one of those Webb type runners, whom you can count on to put up some solid times but never quite the perfect race.

4. David Torrence wants it like none other.

I am liking Torrence more and more. I would not be surprised to see him nip the third spot coming down the stretch.

Manzano, Torrence and Lomong. I think centro's probably hurt. Brown is a choke artist and Wheating is fat.

Centro is scheduled to race Prefontaine and adidas Grand Prix. If he's hurt, it'll show then, but at this point I'm not ready to play the write-off-Centrowitz game:

1. Centro

2. Andrews

3. Torrence

or:

1. Centro

2. Torrence

3. Manzano

Also is there anything aside from Centro's absence from recent races to corroborate the injury rumors?

No one is a lock, which makes it all the more interesting. If the pace isn't fast, there will be so much pushing and shoving, it will look like a Rugby game!

I'm pretty sure Centro is hurt. That's why no races from him

My guess is that Andrews will enter the 1500 at trials, but if he makes the team in the 800 he will withdraw. If I was looking at the right schedule, the trials is set up perfectly for an 800 guy to enter the 1500 as the back-up in case he doesn't make the 800 team.

jeeez wrote:

I'm pretty sure Centro is hurt. That's why no races from him

Being pretty sure about something usually requires some evidence. What evidence can you point to?

Guys who ARE def running the 1500 that are contenders for top 3:

Centro

Manzano

Torrence

Brown

Merber

Guys who MAY be running the 1500 that are contenders for top 3:

Wheating

Lomong

Andrews

Symmonds

Guys who are running the 1500 who happen to be long shots for the olympics:

Jeff See

Garrett Heath

Jordan McNamara

Dorian Ulrey

AJ Acosta

Alan Webb

Miles Batty

Craig Miller

Jack Bolas

Erik Van Ingen (great tactics)

Will Leer

why oh why wrote:

I am liking Torrence more and more.

It seems like Torrence has been racing more over the last 2-3 years then the other guys and has improved his tactics and confidence, that should help in the trials.

Mike M wrote:

My guess is that Andrews will enter the 1500 at trials, but if he makes the team in the 800 he will withdraw. If I was looking at the right schedule, the trials is set up perfectly for an 800 guy to enter the 1500 as the back-up in case he doesn't make the 800 team.

This is correct.

The 800 is:

June 22 - prelim

June 23 - semis

June 25 - final (right after the 5,000 prelim)

2 days off

1500m schedule:

June 28 - prelim (2 1/2 hrs before the 5,000 final)

June 29 - semis

July 1 - final

Andrews, or Symmonds or any 800 runner, can give the 800 everything and then come back for the 1500 if they don't make the 800 team (or even if they do).

Anyone trying to double back form the 5,000 must be confident that the 1500 prelim won't mess up their 5000 final effort.

Lagat has declared that he won't mess with the 1500.

Lomong has a decision to make. I think he will pick the 1500 where he can draw on experience. Same with Torrence.

Lomong should do the 5k. Torrence should do the 15.

For college runners, you gotta add Riley Masters. Just hit 3:37 at the oxy meet ahead of both Webb and Batty.

BountyHunter wrote:

Lomong should do the 5k. Torrence should do the 15.

What are other people's thoughts on this? Especially for Lomong.

I can see how Lomong may have an easier time making the 5000 team.

But, at the international level I think he is better off running the 1500.

Right now, he has virtually no experience at the 5000 and will have to make it past the semis and see what he has for an Olympic final.

Let's see what he does at Pre in the mile. If he chases the Kenyans to the line, or maybe wins the event, we may have a different view on what event he should focus on.

Would it make sense to try both at the Trials?

Would a 1500 prelim 2.5 hours before the 5000 final make it difficult to make the 5000 team?

Would it be a mistake to run a couple of 5000's to go with two rounds of 1500 before the 1500 final?

You all ignore Gabe Jennings at your peril.

Merber has had 1 good race, nothing to judge consistency. He belong in the same group as Batty and Webb. Brown and Torrence I feel much the same about though they are marginally better than Merber. One has to look at championship experience. Batty has a couple of NCAA titles under his belt. Acosta has done well in some big races. This is not just going to be a time trial you have to look for a sharp tactical runner as well, hence why Centro and Manzano are probably your favorites.

Oh yes, I have to put Gabe Jennings into consideration ... and German Fernandez.