Nick Willis Crushes Field in 5k at NZ Champs - Says He Can Run 13:10 and Might Run 5k at Olympics - Can He Medal?

Not sure if Willis can medal at either event, but he should certainly break his PB.

This is very similar to Lovelock's thinking in '36.

ventolin, you have webb at 28:24 when he was in 3:46.9 shape? doesn't that estimate make you think that there is something wrong with the calculator?

Willis has historically trained pretty high mileage for a miler and does numerous fast long runs, if I recall correctly an interview with his former training partner Steve Scherer, who preferred low mileage training and initially broke through when he shifted to low mileage from Willis-training, and then never saw those times again. Willis's mileage background and obvious ability to close fast in a fifteen hundred when it counts suggest that he could do well at five, but not without sustaining the kind of endurance he gets in his base period.

jjjjjjjjjj wrote:ventolin, you have webb at 28:24 when he was in 3:46.9 shape? doesn't that estimate make you think that there is something wrong with the calculator?

why ?

his best over-distance run ( in fact only run i see listed over a mile ) is a 9th in a 2 mile in 8'23.97

that doesn't indicate any great over-distance ability that year

the possibility that i didn't mention is that most assume that webb's potential that year was only about mid-3'46, because he ran 3'46.9

however, that was because he ran a race targeting 3'47.6 & therefore the pacing had to be commensurate with splits to offer him a shot of running this ( & likely not overly ambitious as his pb was 3'48.9 from 2y back )

we don't really know how fast webb couda gone that day if he'd had same good pacing but quicker at all the split points ( chasing much faster than 3'47.6 )

obviously he woud fall off chasing 3'44 splits, but who knows about 3'45 ???!!!

now, i'm pretty sure his 800 was close to his limit ( there even seems to be a hint of shock in his face as they approach the bell at that speed ) - a little slower 1st lap & better 2nd lap & i'm sure 1'43.5 was possible

as for 10k, i'm slightly surprised about theoretical 28'24 coming off 27'34 1y before

perhaps ~ ?28'00 is more likely drift down for a 1500 guy backing off the endurance & focusing on 1500/800

so

1'43.5 / 28'00 ->2'12.8 , 3'28.5 , 3'45.5 , 7'28.8 , 13'07.0

the suggestion is that in '07, webb couda gone out at substantially faster than ~ 3'47 pace & not been killed off for solo last lap - maybe even all the way down to mid-3'45.5...

I'd agree pretty much with that analysis, ventolin. I wouldn't think that his 10k fitness would have dropped off by 50 seconds in one year at peak (8/15) shape. I agree that his mile AR was not his absolute potential in 2007. That was his only attempt at the record that year, his splits were set up just to break Scott's record, and, getting injured in his 800m pr and being sick before World's, he did not take any risks with pacing to go after a really ambitious time later. He had only just that year dropped at all below 1:46 in the 800m, as I recall, and that despite running 1:47.7 back in high school. So, when he then won that 800m against World Silver medalist (?) Gary Reed with the 1:43.8, that race was a big drop for him. You'd think that he could have later dropped more time in a superfast field with quick splits. He did not have Coe like speed, but maybe not far from Cram, who ran a tremendous 1:42.88 and I would have thought that he would run low 1:43 and maybe just under 1:43 with a few serious attempts at Gray's American 800m record.

maybe some more belief in the calculator ???

that i hadn't heard about...

i hadn't looked at the chrono of july '07

- 3rd - lowers 1'46++pb to 1'45.8 behind kid called rudy who runs 1'45.1 & onto something better in years later...

- 6th - runs 3'30.5 in winning big race in paris - rounding into great shape

- 21st - runs 3'46.9 !!

- 28th - 1'43.8 !!!

he really was getting better thruout

that 1'43.5/3'28.5/3'45.5 line looks better & better

he wouda definitely needed to shift all focus to 800 to go <1'43

however, cram analogy looks right - not same 800 speed as cram, but far better endurance ( forget cram's piss-weak 2kwr of 4'51, with 27'34, you can go ~ 4'45/4'46 ), so an impressive a mile as cram's 3'46.3, with dawdle to the bell & 53+ finish for ~ low/mid 3'45 flattened out was very possible...

yeah, more i think about it, he probably was

3'28.5/3'45.5 end of that month...

Maybe Alan Webb should move up to the 5K. He did run a 13:10 7 years ago. I think he could go sub-13 and now is the time, he ain't gettin no younger.