Update on Ritz going into trials?

OK OK Already wrote:

Biggest upside? What planet are you from?

Ritz has completed 5 marathons with an average time of around 2:12. If Hall ran a single 2:12 everyone would be saying he's all washed up (along with some stupid statements about God's coaching). I'm sorry but you can't just attribute five results to "bad luck", "he had a bad day", "he wasn't 100%"...

I understand your point and sort of agree. But the Olympics are "King" and Ritz beat Hall, if only by 1 place. I'd take even that 1 higher Olympic place over Hall's very fast 4th place finishes.

Ritz is a money player

Ritz may be the fastest 5k/10k runner in the field. But is he is that kind of shape after his string of injuries? I don't think so. He will be in very good shape, but not in that kind of superb shape which is why the pace must be fast.

Also having the fastest 5k/10k PR in the field means exactly nothing after 20 miles in the marathon.

yes, after 20 miles at 5'/mile, the 14:00 5000m guys will be looking for a team spot.

I am speaking along the lines of Hall, Ritz, Meb, Mo and other major contenders.

I would assume everyone would have understood that. But this is letsrun. My point still stands.

Ritz did make the team running on a broken foot but that is because only 4 guys had standards for the 10,000 and one of them dropped out.

Ritz finished last and made the Team.

He did finish as the top American marathoner at the last Olympics and the top American at the 10,000 in the 2009 WC's.

He is very intriguing and is worth watching out for.

TLW wrote:

Ritz may be the fastest 5k/10k runner in the field. But is he is that kind of shape after his string of injuries? I don't think so. He will be in very good shape, but not in that kind of superb shape which is why the pace must be fast.

I don't follow. Ritz isn't in shape, therefore he'll want the pace to be fast??? If his fitness is borderline, a fast pace is precisely what would attack his weak points (his lack of base).

Off an abbreviated prep, his speed is probably okay (though not back to sub-13 obviously), but his endurance is probably suspect. Perhaps more importantly, even he's been doing tons of cross-training, his legs won't be as ready for 26.2 miles of pounding. Seems to me he'll be hoping for the easiest pace possible for the first half of the race, knowing that RELATIVE TO THE OTHER SERIOUS CONTENDERS he's the best bet over shorter distances.

I'll admit, I wasn't too clear on my points so let me explain.

Ritz won't be in top shape like you said. However, having the pace be quicker, in the 1:04 range at the first half will work to his advantage. It will work to his advantage because even not in top form, he could still close in 1:04-5 and run in the 2:09, low 2:10 range, possibly setting a PR and securing a spot.

If the pace goes out at 1:06 and finishes with a 1:02-1:03 with Hall, Meb, Trafeh, etc closing hard I believe Ritz will be in trouble.

Due to his major fuel issues in previous marathons I don't see him rocking a 1:02:XX last half, but can definitely see him running even 1:04:XX/1:04:XX splits.

The marathon has been his weakest event (time wise) so in order to make the team he will need the pace to be honest from the start. While he isn't in top form, I still believe he could run 2:09. In top form Ritz, according to his other PRs, should be able to run 2:06.

orbitboy wrote:

allcap, no cow wrote:

91.5633% sure:

3rd place at the trials will be 2:11:30>2:12:+

I agree, somewhat. I think over 2:12 sounds a bit high, but 2:11-something sounds about right to me.

Don't forget, we don't know what the weather will be like. 67 degrees and humid is not out of the question for Houston in January, and no one knows just how hellish that can be in this part of the world until you've actually run in it. If it's warm and humid, I'd be shocked to see the winning time under 2:10.

re: "67 degrees and humid"

-Can it be humid at 67 degrees; is that possible?

I sold him a vial of Hall's blood and watched him drink it. He now owns Hall and will easily win the trials. Now to get a vial of Mutai's.....

It seems that NY was too close to the trials for Meb. Will he be recovered enough to handle a fast pace at the end?

Meb is another runner who would benefit from running an even split 1:04:xx/1:04:xx race.

Obviously you haven't lived in Houston.

trackcoach, I remember people back here in 07 saying the trials would be won in 2:12 because of the hills in NY. Remember how that played out?

You would take 10th place at the olympics over all of Hall's fast marathons? Please get real, the only finishes that matter at the olympics are 1, 2 and 3. Everyone else might as well not have shown up.

As for the trials, the only lock is Hall. I think Rupp doesn't run, too risky in my opinion. He has never run a marathon and if he bonks or gets injured he may ruin his shot at the olympics this year. Salazar seems to protect him alot and he may worry that a big upset at the marathon trials will put him in a bad place mentally.

I'm not sure if Ritz will be a competitor this year, he's had so many setbacks since his 2010 breakthrough couple of months. That time off is not going to be a good thing come trials day. He also hasn't historically performed well in marathons, he's had fueling and fluid issues and just hasn't been able to put it all together.

Ritz if he has good day makes the team on his ability to compete and god given talent. He races well.

Hall will run away with the race , I predict he will be at least 1-2 minutes clear of the field when he crosses the finish line.

If you think Ritz can really PR off abbreviated training given his struggles with the marathon in the past you don't follow the sport closely enough.

If you followed the sport you would know Ritz can pull of crazy races and massive PRs.