Spence's debut was 2:26 in Baltimore in 1985.
Spence's debut was 2:26 in Baltimore in 1985.
All in all, no disrespect to Brian Olinger, a very good runner, its wierd that this website would pay attention like they have on the front page and all. Its sort of a novelty and I guess its a slow period for running news.
Proven distance runners like Virgin, Ritz, Kennedy, Nenow, Bickford, Porter, and Eyestone(the last three debuted around 2:19) I can understand. An 8:19 steeple specialiast whose never raced past 7 miles and has never shown any indication to be a marthoner as of yet, I don't.
malmo wrote:
break it up wrote:Going by memory these are some of the fastest debut marathons by Americans:
Ryan Hall 2:08
Alberto Salazar 2:09
Todd Williams 2:11
Rudy Chapa 2:11
Bob Kemapainen 2:12
Fernando Cabada 2:12
Dathan Ritzenhein 2:14
Marc Nenow 2:14.
I might be missing 3 or 4 others in the 2:12 to 2:14 range. Olinger doing this would be a surprise, but maybe not a huge surprise.
2:08:24 2:06:17 Ryan Hall (24) London 2007
2:09:41 2:08:51 Alberto Salazar (22) New York 1980
2:09:41 2:09:41 Alan Culpepper (30) Chicago 2002
2:11:13 2:11:13 Rudy Chapa (26) New York 1983
2:11:17 2:11:17 Todd Williams (28) Chicago 1997
2:11:35 2:11:35 Dan Browne (27) Twin Cities 2002
2:11:46 x:xx:xx Ed Moran New York 2011
2:12:12 2:08:47 Bob Kempainen (25) Twin Cites 1991
2:12:17 2:12:17 Steve Spence (28) Columbus 1990
2:12:27 2:12:27 Fernando Cabada (24) Fukuoka 2006
-10-
2:12:35 2:09:15 Meb Keflezighi (27) New York 2002
2:13:00 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (29) New York 2009
2:13:02 2:11:40 Rod Dehaven Chicago (32) 1998
2:13:07 2:08:59 Greg Meyer(25) Detroit 1980
2:13:21 2:13:21 Steve Ortiz (22) 1981
2:13:24 2:13:05 Mark Coogan (27) Boston 1994
2:13:29 2:12:23 George Malley (27) New York 1982
2:14:01 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (23) New York 2006
2:14:13 2:14:13 Kyle Baker (26) Chicago 2002
2:14:15 2:14:15 Brad Hauser (25) St Paul 2002
-20-
2:14:21 2:14:21 Mark Nenow (30) New York 1988
2:14:23 2:14:23 John Hunsaker (23) Tempe 1979
2:14:30 2:14:08 Ryan Shay (23) Chicago 2002
2:14:40 2:10:26 Craig Virgin (23) San Diego 1979
2:14:57 2:14:57 Don Johns (26) Duluth 1991
2:15:11 2:15:11 Mike Morgan (26) Chicago 2006
2:15:15 2:14:06 Steve Bolt (25) Rocket City 1980
2:15:16 2:11:32 Paul Cummings (28) St George 1981
2:15:22 2:15:22 Josh Rohatinsky (25) OT 2007
2:15:28 2:11:38 Paul Gompers (19) Rocket City 1983
-30-
2:15:28 2:14:56 Nate Jenkins Austin 2006
2:15:29 2:15:29 Luke Watson Twin Cities 2009
2:15:47 2:15:47 Mike McGuire (26) Detroit 1981
2:15:50 2:15:27 Jason Hartmann (25) Chicago 2006
2:15:51 2:11:25 Randy Thomas (24) New York
Yo, Mike Morgan (2:14:55, Chicago 2010) and Jason Hartmann (2:11:06, Chicago 2010) for updates.
Damn. Paul Gompers at 19 running 2:15! I always remember that Rocket City photo of him offering to shake hands to Bryan Pownell late in that race. The look on Pownell' face made it sort of an iconic 1980's running photo.
Interesting that only 11 of the 35 runners ever ran a minute faster than their debut. Not a whole lot of learning there.
It would be good to know if he was "aw shucks"-ing it a little bit in that interview and that he may be hiding some cards.
That said I'm predicting 2:15:20 after a pretty fast first half (1:04s) hanging with group #1 and then a pretty big group #2 (after Hall, Trafeh, Rupp and maybe Ritz leave off the front). Then he'll come home in 1:10 and change after realizing that the big boyz ain't coming back.
Totally agree with Mr Obvious. The real question is how will the race be run and that will probably dictate how Brian finishes. I think slow and 67ish sounds right, as they will all be looking at each and then whoever neg splits the best goes 1,2,3...Be looking for him 2:14 but the winners only go high 2:11.
eban schletter wrote:
malmo wrote:2:08:24 2:06:17 Ryan Hall (24) London 2007
2:09:41 2:08:51 Alberto Salazar (22) New York 1980
2:09:41 2:09:41 Alan Culpepper (30) Chicago 2002
2:11:13 2:11:13 Rudy Chapa (26) New York 1983
2:11:17 2:11:17 Todd Williams (28) Chicago 1997
2:11:35 2:11:35 Dan Browne (27) Twin Cities 2002
2:11:46 x:xx:xx Ed Moran New York 2011
2:12:12 2:08:47 Bob Kempainen (25) Twin Cites 1991
2:12:17 2:12:17 Steve Spence (28) Columbus 1990
2:12:27 2:12:27 Fernando Cabada (24) Fukuoka 2006
-10-
2:12:35 2:09:15 Meb Keflezighi (27) New York 2002
2:13:00 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (29) New York 2009
2:13:02 2:11:40 Rod Dehaven Chicago (32) 1998
2:13:07 2:08:59 Greg Meyer(25) Detroit 1980
2:13:21 2:13:21 Steve Ortiz (22) 1981
2:13:24 2:13:05 Mark Coogan (27) Boston 1994
2:13:29 2:12:23 George Malley (27) New York 1982
2:14:01 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (23) New York 2006
2:14:13 2:14:13 Kyle Baker (26) Chicago 2002
2:14:15 2:14:15 Brad Hauser (25) St Paul 2002
-20-
2:14:21 2:14:21 Mark Nenow (30) New York 1988
2:14:23 2:14:23 John Hunsaker (23) Tempe 1979
2:14:30 2:14:08 Ryan Shay (23) Chicago 2002
2:14:40 2:10:26 Craig Virgin (23) San Diego 1979
2:14:57 2:14:57 Don Johns (26) Duluth 1991
2:15:11 2:15:11 Mike Morgan (26) Chicago 2006
2:15:15 2:14:06 Steve Bolt (25) Rocket City 1980
2:15:16 2:11:32 Paul Cummings (28) St George 1981
2:15:22 2:15:22 Josh Rohatinsky (25) OT 2007
2:15:28 2:11:38 Paul Gompers (19) Rocket City 1983
-30-
2:15:28 2:14:56 Nate Jenkins Austin 2006
2:15:29 2:15:29 Luke Watson Twin Cities 2009
2:15:47 2:15:47 Mike McGuire (26) Detroit 1981
2:15:50 2:15:27 Jason Hartmann (25) Chicago 2006
2:15:51 2:11:25 Randy Thomas (24) New York
Yo, Mike Morgan (2:14:55, Chicago 2010) and Jason Hartmann (2:11:06, Chicago 2010) for updates.
and Jeff Eggleston, 2:14:32, 2010
The outcome here is binary... he has as much said he is willing to go with any kind of move that may be made. If he is really trying to make the team, he will go with the lead pack if/when the race really breaks. At that point, it is either sub 2:13 or over 2:18.
2:19
casual commentary wrote:
I think he will do well. Sub 2:13
_________________________
Tough to say. Here's why;
Typically, the top three are decided by mile 21. That said, many others will back off when it's clear they are not going to be on the team. Therefore, their times are skewed. I know some money is at stake, but several will back off and save themselves for another day when it's late in the race.
Olinger's 2:12 or :13 will be good enough for 5th or 6th.
What day are they saving themselves for?
A spring marathon, indoor track season, USA XC, etc. Pretty much any other day in the near future.
High 2:12's and he wont make the team.
Missed John Tuttle's debut of 2:14.18 in '83.
eban schletter wrote:
malmo wrote:2:08:24 2:06:17 Ryan Hall (24) London 2007
2:09:41 2:08:51 Alberto Salazar (22) New York 1980
2:09:41 2:09:41 Alan Culpepper (30) Chicago 2002
2:11:13 2:11:13 Rudy Chapa (26) New York 1983
2:11:17 2:11:17 Todd Williams (28) Chicago 1997
2:11:35 2:11:35 Dan Browne (27) Twin Cities 2002
2:11:46 x:xx:xx Ed Moran New York 2011
2:12:12 2:08:47 Bob Kempainen (25) Twin Cites 1991
2:12:17 2:12:17 Steve Spence (28) Columbus 1990
2:12:27 2:12:27 Fernando Cabada (24) Fukuoka 2006
-10-
2:12:35 2:09:15 Meb Keflezighi (27) New York 2002
2:13:00 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (29) New York 2009
2:13:02 2:11:40 Rod Dehaven Chicago (32) 1998
2:13:07 2:08:59 Greg Meyer(25) Detroit 1980
2:13:21 2:13:21 Steve Ortiz (22) 1981
2:13:24 2:13:05 Mark Coogan (27) Boston 1994
2:13:29 2:12:23 George Malley (27) New York 1982
2:14:01 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (23) New York 2006
2:14:13 2:14:13 Kyle Baker (26) Chicago 2002
2:14:15 2:14:15 Brad Hauser (25) St Paul 2002
-20-
2:14:21 2:14:21 Mark Nenow (30) New York 1988
2:14:23 2:14:23 John Hunsaker (23) Tempe 1979
2:14:30 2:14:08 Ryan Shay (23) Chicago 2002
2:14:40 2:10:26 Craig Virgin (23) San Diego 1979
2:14:57 2:14:57 Don Johns (26) Duluth 1991
2:15:11 2:15:11 Mike Morgan (26) Chicago 2006
2:15:15 2:14:06 Steve Bolt (25) Rocket City 1980
2:15:16 2:11:32 Paul Cummings (28) St George 1981
2:15:22 2:15:22 Josh Rohatinsky (25) OT 2007
2:15:28 2:11:38 Paul Gompers (19) Rocket City 1983
-30-
2:15:28 2:14:56 Nate Jenkins Austin 2006
2:15:29 2:15:29 Luke Watson Twin Cities 2009
2:15:47 2:15:47 Mike McGuire (26) Detroit 1981
2:15:50 2:15:27 Jason Hartmann (25) Chicago 2006
2:15:51 2:11:25 Randy Thomas (24) New York
Yo, Mike Morgan (2:14:55, Chicago 2010) and Jason Hartmann (2:11:06, Chicago 2010) for updates.