So Rupp is serious about Marathon Trials

Frank Shorter ran 27:50's in his heat, 27:40's to place 5th in the final and came back later that week to win the marathon.

Close--Shorter ran an AR 27:58.2 in the heats on August 31, followed by an AR 27:51.4 for fifth in the finals on September 3, followed 2:12:19, for first place, on September 10.

Scott56 wrote:

Frank Shorter ran 27:50's in his heat, 27:40's to place 5th in the final and came back later that week to win the marathon.

James Kwalia ran 2:04:20ish in Rotterdam in 2008 or 2009

You're thinking of Kames Kwambia. I know, how could anyone get these two confused.

to say that Rupp is our only serious marathon contender seems wrong. While he has run 26:48 and 1:00:30 or so, Ritz and Hall have both run faster at half marathon, and Ritz medaled at world half and has run 12:56, better than Rupp has ever done. Ritz has underperformed at the marathon while Hall is a very reliable sub 2:09 performer with a 2:06:17 at London. In order to contend, Hall will have to train so that he can switch gears to keep up with the inevitable surges. Ritz can handle the surges but hasn't proven he can handle the last 10k.

Me, I'd much rather see a Rupp double over 5K/10K. Assuming he improves over last year, this would be his best bet. Leave the marathon for 2016. I feel that running the marathon trials would distract his focus from what he needs to do to prepare for London.

The 10K is his best bet for sure, but hell the man is a fine 5K racer (despite what a lotta wind bags on this site have to say!). He catches some flack, but he has balls. He tries to win races, and yes, he ran out of gas in the 5K at the worlds, but he put it on the line. A lot of guys would back off and protect their ability to kick.

So I'm for Galen running a 5K/10K double. Whatcha think, Galen? How 'bout it, Al?

IT IS EASIER TO MEDAL IN THE 5K THAN MARATHON.

I think Rupp's best plan, from what little I know, would go...

Olympics '12 - 5k/10k

Olympics '16 - 10k/marathon

Olympics '20 - marathon

Olympics '24 - marathon???

But wait, there's more! wrote:

Freelove wrote:

Viren did the double well, and that was with heats.

and a 5,000 with heats

Viren:

7/23/76: 10K Heat

7/26/76: 10K Final

7/28/76: 5K Heat

7/30/76: 5K Final

7/31/76: Marathon

I don't mind the history lessons with Zatopek, Viren and Shorter, but the 10k/marathon isn't anything close to what it used to be.

First it needs to be mentioned that Dan Browne tried this in 2004 and it went terribly, particularly the marathon. He was coached by Alberto Salazar at the time.

Both the marathon and the 5k/10k records have dropped drastically not just because runners have gotten better but also because runners are specializing in either the track or the Marathon.

While Rupp should not be concidered a favorite to medal in any event he enters, he should absolutely do the event that he has the best chance at medaling at and doubling the Marathon 10k is virtually impossible.

Just look at the numbers...

To have a shot at a medal in the 10k he has to be able to average 2:45-2:40 per kilometer and then he has to be able to close in 52-54 second lap after a few 58-60 second laps depending on the pace throughout the race and how long out people kick from.

In the Marathon he would have to average 2:57-2:59 per kilometer and handle surges and a strong last 10k.

In other words he would have to be doing mile repeats in the sub 4:10 range, 400 meter repeats in the mid 50s while he is also doing some serious 20+ mile long runs and tempos and probably running 120ish miles per week.

Viren, Zatopek and Shorter did not have to do this.

To further put this in perspective. Haile could not manage to medal in the 10k before coming back to set the world record in the Marathon. He simply couldn't possibly kick with the current 10k runners.

Also Tadesse couldn't manage to run a good Marathon even after running 58:23. I don't doubt that he could have run a great 10k but his speed did not translate to a good marathon.

If Haile and Tadesse can't do it, I can't possibly imagine Rupp being able to do it. I would much rather see him give a serious try at medaling in the event of his chosing than try to double for the hell of it.

Say he did chose to double, I think that his best chance at success would be coming from the marathon side. In the 10k he could hold strong for a while before he got his doors blown off at the end, and then come back strong for the Marathon. I don't see any point in doing this though when it would just seem to make more sense to go into the Marathon as fresh as possible. Atleast in this scenario I think he would still be running at a level in both events that is likely worthy of the spots that he would be taking from other athletes. If he approached it from the other end and ran the marathon off of 10k fitness I think the marathon would go terribly. I would rather see Meb or Ritz (or whoever is 4th at the trials assuming Rupp is in the top 3) in that spot. Hell, I would bet on Hartman or Gotcher to beat Rupp in a marathon when Rupp is training for the 10k.

Maybe Mutai would maybe be able to pull something like a bronze in the 10k and Gold or Silver in the Marathon, but I don't think he's stupid enough to try it.

Could we set up a bet? Through betfair or something? I don't know much about how this works. Can you propose bets on that site, or only place bets on certain events or outcomes?

Awesome, another "will he or won't he race" cliff hanger for Rupp. Trying to be a fan but it ain't easy.

I loved the post that said stupid stupid move... He has no chance in the marathon - it will blow up in his face blah blah blah...

EXCUSE ME, but when you make the olympics I don't think you're worried that it will blow up in your face... If he makes the team, then everyone behind him at the trials would not have fared any better...

Rupp is a certified a$$ kicker!

If he's hedging his bets - I'd say 10k & marathon is more realistic for him... no heats of the 10k and then he'd be able to come back and run a marathon... And if his half is any indicator, remember what prince hall ran just shortly after his 59min half in houston back on the last go round... Plus it will give him experience for 2016!

GO RUPP! Galen - Salazaar 2012!!!

Big Rupp fan. I'm hoping he doesn't race the marathon, though. Why should he move up? He's just now cracking in the shorter distances. Yes, the 10k is his best 10k, but as he proved by that 53 second finish against Mo last season, he can race with the big dogs in the 5k. Call it bad luck that his pr is only 13:06, but I feel like he's capable of at least a 12:53-12:55, good enough for competitive in a World/Olympic races. He has a much better shot at medalling in a 10k or 5k than marathon (though he could probably run 2:05-2:06, based off his track speed). The marathon, as we all know, is evolving. It is getting faster, while the track races (especially the 10k) remain fairly stagnant. Not bashing on Rupp; he'd make a great marathoner, but he belongs on the track. And don't tell me it's a money thing; it's not. Trust me, Galen is doing just fine in that department.

I'd just like to see Rupp run it to see what would happen. Given that amazing 26:48 he just ran it's not hard to imagine he could dominate the marathon. I can't see Hall beating him, UNLESS Hall takes the pace out really hard and Rupp lets him go. Does anyone on this board seriously think that Hall could outrun Rupp over the last 10K of a marathon? No chance.

laffitup wrote:

I'd just like to see Rupp run it to see what would happen. Given that amazing 26:48 he just ran it's not hard to imagine he could dominate the marathon. I can't see Hall beating him, UNLESS Hall takes the pace out really hard and Rupp lets him go. Does anyone on this board seriously think that Hall could outrun Rupp over the last 10K of a marathon? No chance.

Pretty good trolling I think.

But just in case you are not trolling - The statement "I can't see Hall beating him.." is perhaps a new world record for stupidity.

In case nobody has let you in on a little secret, Hall is BY FAR THE BEST AMERICAN MARATHONER EVER. Let that sink in a little bit and then revisit your statement, "I can't see..."

I think Rupp has an excellent chance of making the USOT in the marathon. Assuming the first half will only go out in about 1:06, that will eliminate all but about 5-6 guys, but that's 20 mile training run pace for a guy with a 26:48 10K PR. Unless Rupp wins and dominates the USOT race, I doubt he will run the Olympic marathon. If Rupps hangs on for 3rd and runs like a 2:10, there is no way he will consider competing in the Olympics against guys who will run 2:07 in a tactical race.

Btw, to those who say Rupp does not have a chance in the 10k, you must be assuming his 26:48 was a fluke. Ad/or you are assuming sine he ran tah race, he could not have gotten better.

No it's not a dumb statement. Hall has nowhere near the speed of Rupp. I'm a Hall fan as well but let's get real here, it's pretty obvious that Rupp has the talent and ability to beat him.

The previous posts assume that Rupp can't hang with Hall for 20 miles at what would probably be around 2:08/2:09 pace and then out-kick him over the last 10K. First off, it's obvious a guy running as fast as Rupp is running this year can hang at 20 miles at that pace. Secondly, if that happens, it's a 10K race -- Rupp will destroy Hall over the last 10K -- ESPECIALLY if the pace has been slow (2:09 or higher).

That statement is, in itself, factually inaccurate. 1) Frank Shorter took gold in 72. 2) Bill Rodgers won Boston FOUR times. He won New York FOUR times. 3) Alberto Salazar won New York THREE times and Boston once. Also, his times are fairly comparable to Ryan Hall's. If these true road warriors had access to modern day training methods, etc; they would annihilate Hall. However, their accomplishments stand alone, as far superior to Mr. Hall's.Don't get too excited about Rupp having no chance at winning the title. Ryan Hall became a great marathoner without any true track accomplishments. Rupp, on the other hand, is the current American RECORD HOLDER for 10,000 meters. IF Rupp actually races, he'll have a fair shot at an upset. Sure, Hall could win, certainly, but don't discount Rupp.That being said, Hall is in the mix. He is ONE of the greatest American marathoners of all time, but calling him the best, based off two good performances (London and this past year's Boston) is a little childish. He's run two good times; other than that, he's run comparably fast to Salazar and, hell, I'll say it, Rodgers. Shorter's times aren't too far back, either. Plus, those old school guys actually won races. And they did it repeatedly. NO EXCUSES.

[quote]laffitup wrote:

In case nobody has let you in on a little secret, Hall is BY FAR THE BEST AMERICAN MARATHONER EVER. Let that sink in a little bit and then revisit your statement, "I can't see..."