What the hell?? How can you guys overlook Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?! She has beat many of the females mentioned on this thread by a country mile this fall!
What the hell?? How can you guys overlook Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?! She has beat many of the females mentioned on this thread by a country mile this fall!
Its hard to imagine one of Kastor, Flanagan, Goucher or Davila being left off the team if they all toe the line healthy. I think those 4 finish in the top 5. Magda probably as well. What an amazing group.
Kastor- Olympic Medal, Major Winner, AR holder
Flanagan- Olympic and WC (cross, right?) Medal, AR holder, 2nd in a major
Goucher- WC Medal, 3rd in Major
Davila- 2nd in Major
Men's is harder to predict, obviously
Hall
Ritz
Meb
Lemkuhle
Hartman
But: Arcinaga, Humphrey and Morgan could play spoiler. You have to like Humphrey and Morgan. They'll likely work together, probably won't blow up, and will run even, picking guys off.
my vote goes to wrote:
What the hell?? How can you guys overlook Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?! She has beat many of the females mentioned on this thread by a country mile this fall!
"has BEATEN"
You're welcome.
my vote goes to wrote:
What the hell?? How can you guys overlook Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?! She has beat many of the females mentioned on this thread by a country mile this fall!
Excuse me where did she beat Desi, Goucher, and Flanagan?
Rupp or no Rupp...
As solid as Cherobon-Bawcom is, she has yet to show that she can run the marathon. Her marathon PR is nowhere near the level of the other ladies mentioned, so she hasn't earned that level of credit yet. Now, she did thrash many of the US ladies this fall at shorter distances, but we're talking about the marathon here, so don't get overly excited based on performances at less than half the distance. That said, if you see the way she demolished the field at Tufts a day doing the same thing to the field at the Boston 1/2, then maybe she can do something, but she'll still be hard pressed to beat Davila, Shalane or Goucher, much less all three of them.
Marathon Skinny wrote:
my vote goes to wrote:What the hell?? How can you guys overlook Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?! She has beat many of the females mentioned on this thread by a country mile this fall!
Excuse me where did she beat Desi, Goucher, and Flanagan?
Because they didn't show up, doesn't mean she can't beat them too. I don't want to see another mention about Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Stephanie Rothstein, Blake Russell, Clara Grandt, Katie McGregor, Deena, Lisa Koll (where's she even been?), and frankly I don't care about anyone else.
Totally agree on Flanagan. Although she is the best female American distance runner by a long shot, she ran only 1 marathon. Who knows how her body will react at the 21nd mile when Davila puts a move in (let's say there is a pack of 5 at that point).If I had to pick one lock on the female side, it would be Davila.DavilaHastingBowcomFlanaganRothsteinOn the men, Hall is a a sure bet as any. Ritz and Meb are next. But when was the last time that the 3 odds-on favorites came through. I hate to say, but I think it is Meb that doesn't make it.HallRitzDark horseMeb
Marathon Skinny wrote:
The women's race is fascinating. It is very possible any of the following women could make the team.
Flanagan - favorite but she has only run 1 and it was 2:28 and her coach is still somewhat unprove in the marathon.
Goucher - 2:24 PR but has had injruy problems and has a new coach (see Flanagan)
Davila - seems like a lock but haven't seen anything from her the last several months - is she just training or is she injured
Bawcom - crazy talent, but has she overcooked it with races this fall chasing money
Kastor - hasn't done anything in last several years, until she just ran a 1:11 half (is she back?)
Hasting - Most improved runner of the year - but only 1 marathon - can she put it together under the pressure of the trials?
Rothstein - see Hastings (hope she doesn't try and wear a Picky Bars tattoo)
Magda L.B - She'll be ready and go 2:28 but will that do it this year.
Moody - good WC race, so would look to go sub 2:30 at the trials but there are reports of some hamstring issues
Pritz - good debut in NYC, but tight turn-around to the trials leaves her questionable for the type of improvement needed to make the team. Has the talent to be in the hunt.
Grandt - 2:29 PR, great improvement - but it was at Boston with the trailwind, can she do it under pressure at the trials?
McGregor - good racer but she will need to move up a level to get a team spot.
It is conceivable that we have 6-8 women go sub 2:30 in this race. The question is what it takes to make the team 2:25 or 2:28.
For the Men:
Hall
Ritz
Meb
Lemkuhle
King
It will play out similar to the one in New York, and a lot of guys will need a PR to make the team. Hall will show he is solidly a 2:08 marathoner under all conditions (will likely negative split after a "pedestrian" 1:05 half) and Ritz will surprise how long he hangs on and will finish a close second (<10 seconds), and Meb will battle Max and Jason late in the race in similar fashion that Brian Snell did in New York and just make it (The subsequently sing praises to he sponsors). Hall for win in Olympic trials record time, Ritz for a large (and comfortable) PR, and Meb we'll say in just under 2:12.
For the Women
Desi
Flanagan
Goucher
Magda
Kaster
It's quite tight if you assume a 2:28 ish will make the team. I think Kaster will grow restless as she knows she can rely on strength to beat some gals and will get toasted in a kick, but I don't think she has the confidence to lead early enough because of her long layoff from true elite fields and will make the move too late (say at half, but will still get rid of McGregor, Pritz, Moody, Rothstein, Hastings). Desi wins fairly convincingly after surging around 35k and Flanagan and Goucher do just enough to make the team. Biggest ? is Bawcom. She's won a large volume and shows shes's a racer, but I'm not convinced in the quality of fields she's beaten. I'll say Desi in 2:25, and Flanagan in 2:25:45 and Goucher in 2:26 ish.
my vote goes to wrote:
Because they didn't show up, doesn't mean she can't beat them too. .
Goucher, still coming back from her pregnancy beat Bawcom by over 2 minutes at the NYC Half in March and a month before that Shalane killed Goucher at the cross country champs.
Bawcom is good but she is no Shalane or Kara.
Hall
Meb
Michael Wardian in a seven-minute PR
Marathon Skinny wrote:
Goucher, still coming back from her pregnancy beat Bawcom by over 2 minutes at the NYC Half in March and a month before that Shalane killed Goucher at the cross country champs.
Bawcom is good but she is no Shalane or Kara.
That was last spring, a long time ago compared to this fall. Goucher will be hurt or DNF. It will be great to watch Janet/Shalane/Desi make the moves.
Jogger to be wrote:
Torres was in my top 5, but then he had to go run into a car in Ireland.
Come again ?
How did that happen ? What the hell was he doing n Ireland?
Still coming back from pregnancy???, is that what you said?
Give it up. She said she was in better shape than ever in March, look it up. The baby was born in September, not January. She's not making the team and you will still say it's because of her pregnancy, right? Geez!!!!
No one is beating Davila in the trials as she is in even better shape that Boston. There will be no jogging for 15 miles and then racing, she's smarter than that. Then Shalane and then?????, I am rooting for Kastor.
Hall
Ritz
Meb or Abdi
hall
meb
eggleston
torres
moran
bankit wrote:
hall
meb
eggleston
torres
moran
Follow the sport folks!
Moran - Not running
Curtis - Not running
Torres - Not running
A. Goucher - Not running
Also, note that Moody was limping across the line at the San Antonio half this last weekend.
Since when do marathons go according to form, especially in the OT? Here's my prediction. At least one of the following favorites (and more likely two) will NOT make the team:
Hall, Meb, Ritz
Davila, Flanagan, Goucher
It Always Happens wrote:
Since when do marathons go according to form, especially in the OT? Here's my prediction. At least one of the following favorites (and more likely two) will NOT make the team:
Hall, Meb, Ritz
Davila, Flanagan, Goucher
Marathons do go according to form when there is this much disparity in the field.
My answere are from here:http://www.usatf.org/usatf/files/69/695a8112-b7a0-4b9d-9dbb-8b4bca22677c.pdf
My to five men olympic trials marathons are:
1. 1976 Shorter mano a mana vs Rodgers
1. Frank Shorter 2:11:51
2. Bill Rodgers 2:11:58
3. Don Kardong 2:13:35
2. 1984
1. Peter Pfitzinger 2:11:43
2. ALSAL 2:11:44
3. John Tuttle 2:11:50
4. Dave Gordon 2:11:59
3. 1992
1. Steve Spence 2:12:43
2. Ed Eyestone 2:12:51
3. Bob Kempainen 2:12:54
4. 1980
1. Tony Sandoval 2:10:19
2. Benji Durden 2:10:41
3. Kylie Heffner 2:10:59
5. 2004
1. Allan Culpepper 2:11:42
2. Meb 2:11:47
3. Dan Brown 2:12:02
This only the men's races. The womens's results are at the top in the web site I provided.
I remember watching every one of these races. They were great.
I guess I need to learn to read.
1. Hall
2. Ritz
3. Meb
4. Gottcher(Sp)
5. Moran
Women
1. Davilla
2. Goucher
3. Flanagen
4. Kastor
5. Magda