40:00 10k ---> 3:20 marathon on low mileage?

As try this! wrote... 155 at 8:30 pace will be equivalent to a 7:49 marathon mile pace or 3:24. I would give it a shot (if it feels right..).This is a good article:http://www.duathlon.com/articles/1460

keny wrote:

Coamo wrote:

[...]Another way of roughly predicting optimal race pace might be using your aerobic HR. You could approximate it by Maffetone's 180-age (maybe +5?)formula. Say you are 40, it would correspond to 140-145.

Looking at your splits (assuming you are 40?) that would be somewhere around 8:50 which would put you right on the ballpark of a 3:30 marathon according to this table (link below, borrowed from the LOWHRTR forum): [...]

Post your age if you don't mind and also please post a race report.

Coamo: thanks! But I am not sure I understand the table. I am 29, soon to be 30, male. 180-30+5 = 155.

I know this HR very well. At 155 I am almost exactly at 8:30 min/mi.

From all my progressive workouts, it has been like this:

8:30 around 155

8:00 around 163-165

7:30 around 170-172

7:00 around 175-178

my max is 197+, my resting HR 48ish

So what does the 8:30 at HR 155 say??

love the article, and mark allen is THE dude.

That intensity is about right from the Lydiard and Hadd point of view as well. It's not LSD per se, but rather aerobic threshold. The key intensity to build your base on. Thanks!

update: I'm &^**ing myself now, but it's getting super close. Will report back tmrw in the evening if I'm able to :)

thanks all again for your insights!

BUMP

race report as I promised:

I went by feel and effort to reach my best, split the half in 1:42 flat, and started being stopped by excruciating cramps at mile 19. Lost losts of minutes immobile in the middle of the road. Passed mi 20 at 2:40 and now 3:30 was going to be lost. To make things worse I cramped again even worse at mi 21. Felt like calling it a day and going home, but then I remembered that in the end, the marathon is all about finishing. I jogged and took minuscule walk breaks my 22-24 (including uphill) at around 8:30-8:40, and then when we re entered Central Park I felt...fresh?

Ran around 7:15-7:30 pace at mi 25 (how???) and was highfiving people, and hit colombus circle flying. Then BAM final cramp. Lost another 2 minutes and it was NOT going away. I could see the finish and limped on one leg (my split from mi 26 to the finish is 10:15 pace = one legged pace, lol). I crossed the finish line in 3:40, and the seconds actually match exactly last year's, so it's a PR by 10'.

Questions: why did I cramp? I started feeling twinges at mi 9, even though i was running 7:45s. I did 10 milers in training at 7:20 w no food, and today had way sufficient drinks and food.

By the way today I did not hit the wall, I had energy throughout, but the hamstrings, quads and adductors were very very angry at me.

Bottom line: I am VERY happy. I did my best and it wasn't optimal. I felt and didn't even break 3:30. I was on pace was 3:25ish, and never had a shot at 3:20. I knew that by mile 3. So the only thing I could have done differently I suppose is slowing down some early, but then again I am not sure cramps would not have happened even then, on 25 mpw..

What do you guys think? Other than "you suck". etc.

2010: injury and close to no mileage, max long run 10mi ---> 3:50

2011: 20-27 mpw max long run 16mi ---> 3:40

Can I break 3 one day with proper training? Is 3:40 on 25 mpw something I should be ashamed of, or does it "make sense"?

Thanks again all! I appreciated all your insights. NYC was a tough one for me.

Thanks for reporting back. For what it's worth, going back to the article I pointed out earlier in the thread (http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id64.html) suggests a 5.5 multiplier to your 40 minute 10k for 30-35 miles/week training. That would be 3:40. There's no doubt you could run a great deal faster with proper training. You won't know how fast unless you try, but sub-3 isn't crazy.

Genius. Thanks man. A 5.5 multiplier was indeed the right one, there was NO WAY I could have done the 5.0 multiplier to 3:20. The best I feel like would have been about 3:30 without the cramping and on an easier course.

Live to learn, next year I know I'll be back for more, hopefully 1) better prepared and 2) with a more conservative goal, perhaps "only" 3:30

"there is nothing wrong with 10' PRs", lol

thanks again for the article, it is indeed very valuable.

Congrats! I will also use the Citizen Runner factors to try and figure out a pace for my upcoming marathon.

Interestingly, you mentioned your pace at HR of 155 was 8:30 min/mi. 8:30*26.2= 2:42:42.

"Questions: why did I cramp? I started feeling twinges at mi 9, even though i was running 7:45s. I did 10 milers in training at 7:20 w no food, and today had way sufficient drinks and food."

Here:

"Conventional wisdom says cramps are caused by dehydration and that the solution is to consume salt and drink more fluids. Not true, says Martin P. Schwellnus, a professor of sports medicine at the University of Cape Town in South Africa..."

"The cause of cramps, Schwellnus believes, is an alteration in the electrical signals going to exhausted muscles so that the balance between those signals activating muscles and those inhibiting them is distorted. One way to protect yourself is with proper marathon training and proper pacing. “Racing at too high of an intensity is one of the single most important risk factors,” Schwellnus said."

http://myfitnessdepot.com/tag/timothy-noakes/

About breaking 3:00, yes I think it is possible.

Sure you can break 3, but not on 30 mpw.

If you want to break 3, you're going to have to jack your mileage up to 70/mpw.

3:40 is about right for the "mileage" you did. Breaking 40 for 10k is decent but you're not exactly superman. Your expectation for 3:20 on the mileage you were doing was not close to realistic.

@Perhaps: I agree, I am happy I learned something from marathon #2. The first one I wanted to finish, and the second time I had some arbitrary time goal: two very different experiences.

Re: 10k. Yes I am not superman, I gave it to give a sense of where I am in my second year of running. I have never trained for the 10k, so I really don't know what it's worth.

Goal for the winter: build to 40-50mpw, and maybe run a Spring marathon in 2012 in 3:30.

I agree 70 mpw might be necessary, and it probably is a good 4-5 marathons (and years) away, but I have got time. Thanks for posting!

Coamo wrote:

"Conventional wisdom says cramps are caused by dehydration and that the solution is to consume salt and drink more fluids. Not true, says Martin P. Schwellnus, a professor of sports medicine at the University of Cape Town in South Africa..."

"The cause of cramps, Schwellnus believes, is an alteration in the electrical signals going to exhausted muscles so that the balance between those signals activating muscles and those inhibiting them is distorted. One way to protect yourself is with proper marathon training and proper pacing. “Racing at too high of an intensity is one of the single most important risk factors,” Schwellnus said."

http://myfitnessdepot.com/tag/timothy-noakes/

Agree 100%. Thanks for this. I've been giving it some thoughts and I realize that today I am not even that sore or hurting. It really sounds like the brain/neuromuscular system did exactly what it needed and shut down the muscles (which still had plenty of fuel and glycogen!). Very cool in retrospect. If I had kept going at the same pace as the half (1:42) split, perhaps I would have gotten injured without this signal/feedback. Cheers!

keny wrote:

[...]

Goal for the winter: build to 40-50mpw, and maybe run a Spring marathon in 2012 in 3:30.

I agree 70 mpw might be necessary, and it probably is a good 4-5 marathons (and years) away, but I have got time. Thanks for posting!

I realize I am responding to my own post but...now that the marathon is over, and that my 'failure' is kinda digested, I want to rebound and have a decent plan.

So in my case, if my goal is a sub 3:20 marathon, and (eventually, maybe 3 years away) a shot at 3, what is my best best? A winter of lydiard style base, culminating at around 50 mpw, say by February-March, and then what? A Spring marathon or half? I feel like with a 40-50 mpw I'll have a good shot using a Hanson's style program on 6 days a week. But I'm not sure if it's best to try for a 3:30 marathon in the Spring and then 3:20 in the Fall, or something else (e.g. sub 1:28 or 1:30 half?)