"I would be very surprised to see a <2:00:00 marathon any time soon, if ever, and I'm in my early twenties. I honestly thought it'd be a decade or more before Gebs 2:03:59 was broken."
You're contradicting yourself. You would be surprised if they made huge gains... but are surprised that they made huge gains?
coach small foot wrote:
ARE YOU SERIOUS? REALLY? So then, in 100 years you see the 1:35 marathon, right? Of course we have limits...how dumb dude, how truly dumb.
Bolt is going to go sub 8, yes I said 8, in the 100, because we have no limits.
I think you misinterpreted what I said. I don't think I'll see a 1:35 marathon 100 years from now because I will not live 100 more years. I never said that all of the sudden records will be smashed, I'm just saying the human race evolves more and more and I believe every record can be broken. There's always something that you could change slightly in order to make it faster. For instance, Makau could have gone faster in his WR if maybe he wasn't zig-zagging while running a 14:20 5k split in route to losing Geb. Maybe he would've broken 2:03 if the 1k splits weren't bouncing between 2:55-3:02 the whole race. Sorry I upset you.
Not who ever it was you upset, but you're still wrong. There are limits which seemed to be the posters point to which many agreed. Maybe you worded it wrong. Makau improving is not what your post said but you are saying now. Again, there are limits. Do you think you will see a 1:50 marathon? Why not? Because we have limits.
L-L0L wrote:
Improving his stride angle and getting the gay creepy massage he can easily run sub-1:50.
The creepy gay massage is the key to breaking 2:00 in the marathon. That ... and tribal dancing. JUMP, JUMP, JUMP, JUMP, JUMP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Uv7DjCHN8not happening
faster, yes
2:02, maybe
a sub 2 hour, no sir.
As was said, because it's a nice round number doesn't mean it can be done.
As far as limits, of course there are limits.
If it goes it ain't going by much, even if Bekele runs.
Bekele yes, but also why hasn't Zersenay Tadesse put it together for the full yet? Who is coaching that guy? Time to switch to Canova!
no cigar for u!!! wrote:
2 hours is a nice round number, but to think someone is going to break it in our lifetime is asking a lot. Looking at the effort made by the top 1/2 marathoners and to imagine them slowing up a bit and then doing 2 in a row, I personally don't believe we will see it in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.
And bringing up the 4 minute miles is like comparing apples to dirt.
Cheers!
It willl happen in our lifetime. Why not? Don't imagine that distance runners are close to the limit of what is achievable. They aren't, not by a long way.
Two words. Yuki Kawauchi. His 13:59 5k converts to 2:15-16 yet he runs 2:08. If big money is on the line along with a few trying for the WR it's possible to see a low 2:02 high 2:01 in the next 5 years easy. Makau was jogging around after the finish. Someone with sub 13/27 speed and Kawauchi's drive who lays it all out, risks to the point of collapse will be something to watch.
14-Flat wrote:
The 10,000m WR has improved 5 seconds in the last 13 years. In the previous 13 years 1985-1998) it improved 51 seconds.
For those of you who believe it made that quantum leap (of 51 seconds) due to better training (or sometimes you call it new or different training methods) I am wondering what methods those are?
Similarly, the 5,000m WR has improved 2 seconds in the last 13 years. In the previous 13 years (1985-1998) it improved 21 seconds.
The 3,000m WR has improved ZERO seconds in the last 13 years, and improved 11.5 seconds in the 13 yrs previous to that.
The 3k WR has not been bettered in 15 years. A WR at that distance has not stood for 15 years at any time in the last 100 years ... all of the IAAF era.
The 5k WR has not been bettered in more than 7 years. No 5k WR has stood for that long since 1965 when Clarke broke Kutz' 1957 WR by .2 seconds.
The 10k WR has not been bettered in more than 6 years and 1 month. No 10k WR has stood for that long since 1972 when Viren broke Clarke's amazing and long-standing WR of 27:39.4 (first 10k under 28:00) by 1.5 seconds. Even that WR lasted "just" 7+ years, you have to go back to 1937 when the WR was 30:05 to see one that lasted longer.
The factors that contributed to the massive improvements at 3k/5k/10k over the EPO era of 1992-1998 have been being applied to the marathon for the last 10-15 years.
If you go back 13 years exactly to da Costa's Berlin WR in 1998 there is an improvement of 2:27 from 2:06:05 to 2:03:38. In the previous 13 year period the WR improved only 67 seconds.
So, if you believe that these improvements occurred from anything besides new drugs that became available in 1989, and you believe that a clean athlete will break 2:00-flat in the marathon in the next 20 years ... maybe it is possible? If they average the same advances that have been made the last 13 yrs the new WR in Fall of 2024 will be 2:01:11 roughly. And if you believe in this kind of linear improvement (based on better training methods, better shoes, better pacers remember?) then it will take just about another 7 years to chip that last amount away and run 1:59:59 in 2031.
The funniest thing I have read on this thread so far are the people that said he could have run faster if he had had more/better pacing and that they "only" paced him until 20 miles. I am shocked that they could pace him that far!! He ran about 1 full minute faster than everyone in history besides Haile.
Maybe if he had run relaxed he could have knocked off one more minute like you morons said and run 2:02. It's only 2 seconds per mile after all?
EPO's are a part. But much of this improvement is from more money and increasing popularity of running in Africa. The talent pool is now deeper and it's pulling out athletic freaks of nature who we would have never heard about before.
More money = more people = more outliers.
Okay J.O. (Jerk Off?), we'll see. I predict a 1:47 in the next 20 years. Then, 1:41:01. Then the first sub 1:40!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bolt's grandson, lightning, will be at 5 seconds then, because it's possible. Then the elusive 1:30 marathon. 2 sub 45 minute halves. They still aren't even close yet:)
Fellas, 3:38 away is a long, long way. Breaking 2:03 will not be easy. Knocking another 3 minutes off that will be something to see. When they go 56 flat for a half, come talk to me, until then....
That part with the animated Ryan Hall running up the side of the World Trade Center is extra creepy.
Couldn't creepy gay massage video maker have chosen a different building than the WTC for his lousy animation?
^^^Referring to this video ---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Uv7DjCHN8
This all comes down to how long you expect to be alive. I expect to be around in 60 or so years. Lets take a look back. So in 1951 the marathon WR was a blistering 2:25:39 on an aided course. The 10000m WR stood at 29:02. If you told any of the people back then that someone would run a marathon at pretty much that pace they would have laughed.Are we closer to the peak of human limits than we were in 1951? Sure. But 2 mins were taken off the Marathon WR in the last 10 years and people are still taking off 20s at a time.I have no clue if the WR will end up at 1:59 in 60 years or 2:02 in 60 years but past history has proven it will keep getting fastor. Unless of course someone develops a good EPO test:)
no cigar for u!!! wrote:
When someone runs a special time definitely celebrate it but be realistic with future predictions as well and don't kid yourself about the effort it took.
To run a tick under 4:43 pace and then think someone will run 7-8 seconds faster, for every mile!, that is harder than most seem to realize.
Makau ran great, with or without competition in the later stages. But...
the weather was perfect.
he was on the edge.
it was no easy effort.
to drop over 3.5 minutes would be...
etc., etc., etc.....
Alberto was right many years ago when he said the WR would be around 2:04 at this time.
2 hours is a nice round number, but to think someone is going to break it in our lifetime is asking a lot. Looking at the effort made by the top 1/2 marathoners and to imagine them slowing up a bit and then doing 2 in a row, I personally don't believe we will see it in the lifetime of anyone reading this post.
And bringing up the 4 minute miles is like comparing apples to dirt.
Cheers!
No, I don't see it, even with perfect conditions. String 2 sub 60's in a row in a pretty tough feat. Perfect course and perfect conditions, with pacers they are still well over 3 minutes away. Yeah, he dropped the pacers but what does that tell ya, he was flying and going hard. With or without help in the later miles, he ran his ass off.
I am 23 and I definitely don't see it dropping till under 2 in my lifetime. They are pushing the envelope people. I don't see 4:36ish mile pace for 26 miles, I really don't. But who knows?
You don't have much vision, or understanding of the natural progression of the sport. The current record is nowhere near the limits, how could it be, it has come down more than 3 minutes in 13 years?
J.O. wrote:
You don't have much vision, or understanding of the natural progression of the sport. The current record is nowhere near the limits, how could it be, it has come down more than 3 minutes in 13 years?
Okay . . . what is the limit and how do you know?
I can't think in terms of limits, like so many posters here. What they are doing is projecting their own feelings of self limitation, but they will never admit to it.
I think the marathon will go well under 2 hours after I'm gone. Why wouldn't it?
Ventolin, where are you?
For someone to run a 2hr marathon, what would their peak performance time calculations be for 1500M, 5K, 10K and the 1/2?
Check it out...