Is China on the verge of a great depression?

O RLY wrote:

I don't believe ANY of the GDP/economic statistics coming out of China. 9% GDP growth for 10 straight years? I call bs.

Their oil consumption indicates that growth between 8-10% has occurred for the last 10 years.

Of course, for this to continue, two big things need to happen. The developed world (Japan, Europe, U.S) need to keep consuming at our current pace, or if they decline slightly be offset by growing economies in the middle east.

Second, and most importantly, Oil prices must remain stable with generally growing production meeting demand for the next 10 years globally.

I think the first with consumption to be very possible because of the world population growth rate.

I think the former to be very unlikely given that export volumes will decline as oil producing nations consume more of their own oil and export less.

I highly doubt oil production can grow another 10-15% to facilitate growth of the world economy over the next 10 years as it has over the past 10.

Oil production grew over 15% from 2000 to 2010, and oil prices still rocketed from around 10 dollars a barrel to over 100. Contrast this with the performance of the stock market in the same period.

For similar growth to happen this decade for China and the world, Oil prices need to moderate and production needs to have the same growth rate.

I simply find that impossible. And renewable energy will have no large impact on this dynamic until after 2020. The amount invested on renewable energy in all forms from 2000 to 2010 was easily in the tens of billions and had no impact on the price of energy.

I expect this trend to continue this next decade, with even larger expenditures on renewables. But their real economic value won't begin helping the world economy on a meaningful scale until after 2030. Until then world growth must be facilitated by Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal, all of which are economically becoming more expensive to extract and mine.

China, long term has only 2 real options. Spend the remainder of the oil age which realistically has 10-15 years left of economical value either building a large military with which to extend its consumption of the dwindling resource or immediately begin investing in massive renewable projects and hope its economic model will last long enough for it its domestic renewable projects to become self sustaining, which with its growth rate probably won't happen until sometime after 2040.

Likely China realized both were doomed to utter failure and came to the U.S for asking for cooperation, thus the recent visit of the Chinese President to the U.S.

In the short term, China will be subject to a penalty tax, called 'quantitative easing' whereby for making their currency next to worthless and pegged to the dollar the last 10 years will have to endure massive internal inflation. This will happen so that the U.S banks can continue to remain solvent and the U.S can consume even more of the dwindling reserves of oil the world has left and China will pay for it.

I really see no way good for China out of this. For it to continue growing something needs to give in its favor soon and that just won't happen. Expect prices to continue rising as the world population surpasses 7 Billion and the summer driving season heats up oil prices to 2008 levels.

I would hate to be a Chinese peon on a fixed wage the next 3 years. I would hate it even more after 2015 when China implements its 'Soylent Green' stimulus to maintain economic growth at all costs.

except that Hispanic Whites are Whites too. not Anglo Whites but Mediterranean (Roman/Spain/Italy/Mestizo/Arab/Semitic) whites.

united states of mexico wrote:

Historically, there is no United States per se either. Please look up the map of US since the founding in 1976. The borders of US keeps changing.

With the current estimate of Latino to become the majority population within 20 to 25 generations. The shift of power to the Latinos will be very interesting to see. Will we see major white plight away from all border states or perhaps back to Europe? How will the white population resist such change and the usurp of political power? If wouldn't even be surprising, given the decline of US, the border states such as California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico decide to cede the Union, declaring independence or perhaps returning to Mexico.

Fun! Fun!

First of all, Mexicans will not become the majority population in the U.S. Not now, not ever.

Their population in the U.S will continue to grow, but like I said, resource depletion worldwide will have a tremendous impact on the planet by 2050.

The kind of growth we've seen just won't be possible after that time. Simply having a child will be contributing to the population because of the likely advances that will be made in medicine prolonging lives and reproductive ages.

At some point, our current welfare and social security system will become insolvent, or to avoid this likely outcome higher taxes or lower benefits will be required.

This will make having children much more expensive even for the middle class. For the lower class it will become prohibitive. The effect will be simply, poverty tends to cause higher birth rates. Poverty, also, begets more poverty. Higher taxes and lower benefits will also contribute to, you guessed it, more poverty.

In effect we have a huge negative feeback loop wherein the more hispanics, blacks, whatever, poor people there are on welfare, combined with the longevity effect of modern society and the social security burden will cause the current entitlement mentality and fiscal reality to become impossible. The higher the birth rate of the poor, the faster the crash of the entitlement society becomes leading to a likely series of social reforms and possibly even further in governmental change and reform.

You can only ask the fiscally responsible states like Texas (high latino population) to pay for the fiscally irresponsible ones (California) for so long until they eventually say no.

If the democrats are cutting the defense budget as drastically as they are and raising taxes, its obvious that the republicans who replace them will be even more murderous on the entitlement system.

Just looking forward a few years, its likely that we are in for some very contentious fiscal times for America, when serious questions are asked and answered about responsibility. A lot won't like the answer and lets hope that they behave in a civil manner to express their beliefs.

Just looking forward a few years, its likely that we are in for some very contentious fiscal times for America, when serious questions are asked and answered about responsibility. A lot won't like the answer and lets hope that they behave in a civil manner to express their beliefs. (quote)

Wishful thinking I’m afraid.

Seems to me, that in vast areas of the USA, violence and looting occurs at the drop of the proverbial hat.

One regularly sees videos of spontaneous riots over trivial incidents.

Most of the time, featuring - you know who.

What’ll happen when the s… hit’s the fan, one dreads to think.

Best bet is to move to an area like Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho - you get the picture.

Here is more of what I've been talking about. This guys explains what is structurally wrong with China economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/chinas-economic-%22hard-landing%22--will-cause-a-commodity-crash-says-gary-shilling-535929.html?tickers=fxi,eem,gld,copx,jjc

,^dji,^gspc