MAPIV
blah Blah BLAH your posts are liking eat rice cakes. While it takes up space you get nothing out of it!
MAPIV
blah Blah BLAH your posts are liking eat rice cakes. While it takes up space you get nothing out of it!
VIPAM wrote:
We all know Kenenisa Bekele is one of the all-time greats in cross country. After looking over 2011 season which Kenenisa will be skipping a startling Joesph Ebuya seems to have improved on his form which won him the 2010 World X Title. Joesph has won fives races losing his first to Teklemariam Medhin by one second; however, since then he has been as dominant as any x-country runner. In his four wins this year Joesph has waited late to pull away and then he has destroyed the field twice winning by almost a minute against stacked fields**.
How do you think Joesph Ebuya would fare against Kenenisa Bekele in his most dominant year 2004 when he won the long race by 18 seconds and short race by 5 seconds?
Ha ! I was just thinking the same thing as I read his results for sundays race - Go JOE !!!
**sub 26:40 runner and some sub 27 min 10kers, world track medalists, world x-country medalists, Olympic medalists, he also revenged his sold defeat of 2010 by soundly defeating Medhin in their 2011 meeting
you don't win world xc without tremendous ability, so bank on Ebuya to run Tergat like times this year.
BuffedDistanceGuy wrote:
There are small percentage of athletes who bodies quickly answers to weight training and develop muscle definition quicker than most athletes doing the similiar regimen. It doesn't matter if its sprinters or distance men/women the genetics and body type of certain athletes are more apt to develop muscles even with light to moderate resistance training.
So, IS Ebuya doing resistance training?
MAPIV wrote:I don't, and smart people can see that it is not. Five runners have run 26:30 in history. Only 3 have run 12:45
stats tell only part of the story
26'30 - 5 guys
12'45 - 3 guys
then look at a following tier
add 16s to 10k time to get level of 26'46
comparable addition for 5k is 1/2 of 16s or 8 secs for 12'53
to keep to original ratio for 26'30/12'45 it shoud be ~ 5/3
however :
26'46 - 13 guys
12'53 - 31 guys
off 13 guys we shoud expect (5/3)*13 = 22 guys at 12'53, but we have 9 more than expected
there is a huge logjam of guys just over 12'50
basic stats tells us that is an anomalous situation & must have some confounding factors as you cannot have so many guys just over 12'50 & so few below
having seen 90% of these races, the confounding factor is obvious - the derisory 4th km in these races with no one willing to lead until last lap
invariably pacer does good job to 3k with 7'40/7'43 & with so many quality runners in the field a <<12'50 is expected
however, when he drops out, the pace drops to a 4km split of ~ 10'20 +/- 2s
you can't expect much of a time below 12'50 off that
we will likely only see these <<12'50 times in low-key races without loaded fields with only 1 top guy involved chasing the clock ( somewhat like menjo's races this year, but they will need pacer to 3k, not completely solo like him ), but these races offer no money
Ebuya is a strength runner and he has a better chance at 26:30 than 12:45. I did not write that he would run 26:30.
"strength" is a meaningless concept
komen appeared to have no basic speed & no one woud ever have backed him to win a last lap sprint in a tactical 5k against a bunch of 13'00/13'05 guys in a 13'15/13'20 race & the guy had 3'29 "speed"
his "strength" allowed him to run 3'29/3'46/7'20
if ebuya has 26'30 "strength", komen has shown you can run as fast as 3'29 off just "strength", so 12'45 can eminently be run off "strength" if you have 26'30 ability
Ventolin wrote:
there is a huge logjam of guys just over 12'50
basic stats tells us that is an anomalous situation & must have some confounding factors as you cannot have so many guys just over 12'50 & so few below
komen appeared to have no basic speed
You must not understand statistics or more importantly, this sport. You have many guys over just over 2:05 in the marathon and comparatively few below. This is not anomalous. Surely you must understand that.
As for Komen, he did have decent basic speed. He had to be able to run 49 flat to run 3:29. This is irrefutable. After all, he ran a couple seconds slower than KB in the 5000 and faster than KB at 3000 and 1500 and KB certainly has some basic speed.
There are many more opportunities to run fast 5ks than fast 10ks. Given that so many runners have got "stuck" in the 12:50 range whereas a higher percentage have gone well under 26:45 indicates that 12:45 is a stronger mark than 26:30, ventolin.
stupidSTUPIDER wrote:
Just because an athlete stalls doesn't mean he won't improvement on his pb's later in his career. There are numerous athlete's performances that stalled or hit a long plateau; however, they improved later in their career. One prime example is Menjo. So stop being stupid, my bad you can't LOL!
Yup, some athletes improve. Others do not, though. Meaningless conjecture is just that. We will know what Ebuya can run this summer when it gets to be track season and he actually runs it.
I don't see anyone who can touch Joseph Ebuya in cross country this season especially since Kenenisa isn't running World Cross this year. Ebuya may opt to breakaway late but he decides to hammer from the gun he should win by 20-25 seconds.
RunAwayWin wrote:
I don't see anyone who can touch Joseph Ebuya in cross country this season especially since Kenenisa isn't running World Cross this year. Ebuya may opt to breakaway late but he decides to hammer from the gun he should win by 20-25 seconds.
Don't be fooled by early season progress. Or even mid-season. Some athletes can run great races during the season, but collapse when it comes to the championship. Take Asbel Kiprop for example: 2009 season he was super-dominant, had the best mile time in the world, won all his races, but in the final... he finished 4th.
That said, Ebuya has won the world cross last year after his early, decisive victory in Edinburgh. We'll see if he'll defend. He certainly looks like the man to beat as of this moment.
What you speak of is called choking. Abel Kiprop was dominant on the GP circuit before the Championshps; however, when the Championships came around he like a few other dominant athletes put more pressure on themselves or changed the tactics which had contributed to their pre-championship success.
What you failed to realize is that Joseph Ebuya have already won a Championship so he proved he knows how to handle pressure in Championships. This season he's been even more dominant then last year when he won his first title. So for someone to beat him, Ebuya will have to be ill or get injuried during the race as I don't see him allowing anyone to dictate a race that isn't prudent to his strengths.
Given the fact that each lap was really 2km long, so I saw him in Poland last year running a 27:30slpit on WCChp...
Way faster than Bekele ever
True. You seemed to have missed when I said that Ebuya won last year. And given that Asbel is now the de facto winner of the Beijing Olympics, both he and Ebuya are under similar circumstances. We'll see if Ebuya is consistent enough to win a second title. Hard to doubt him at this point, but never assume...
MAPIV wrote:You must not understand statistics or more importantly, this sport
err...
i'm afraid you are the clueless one
explain how the logjam of guys above 12'50 reconciles with an expected tail end of an even, skewed distribution
You have many guys over just over 2:05 in the marathon and comparatively few below. This is not anomalous. Surely you must understand that
err...
you do realise they didn't all run those times on the same course ?!
& looking at the actual stats :
2"03+ : 1 ( just, by 1s under 2"04 )
2"04+ : 7
2"05+ : 14
that looks a much better distribution than the 5k
As for Komen, he did have decent basic speed. He had to be able to run 49 flat to run 3:29. This is irrefutable. After all, he ran a couple seconds slower than KB in the 5000 and faster than KB at 3000 and 1500 and KB certainly has some basic speed.
eh ?
what makes you think komen had 49s speed ??
you are just guessing
http://www.jundo.co.uk/if he had 49.0 - 49.9s speed when at 12'39, he shouda been running
3'26.7 - 3'28.3
i doubt he coud break 50
as for kennster, has a best 1500 of 3'32.35 which is reasonable but no way going to frighten medal contenders
it's no great "speed"
what makes you think therefore that he didn't run 12'37 off "strength" ???
Sair wrote:There are many more opportunities to run fast 5ks than fast 10ks. Given that so many runners have got "stuck" in the 12:50 range whereas a higher percentage have gone well under 26:45 indicates that 12:45 is a stronger mark than 26:30, ventolin.
those elite "many more" 5ks are due mostly to 5k being golden/diamond league races in many of the past few seasons
that makes them money races with significant prize money for each place higher in the top 5
no one is going to sacrifice themselves pushing the pace along in the 4th km where it may mean they'll be burnt out by last lap & get outsprinted to end up in 5th place when they couda got 3rd or even 2nd & better off by few $1000s
the 10ks at hengelo/brussels are not diamond/golden & the big money put up by promoter is geared towards a fast time
10 under 12:50; about another 70 or so under 13:00. Doesn't seem unreasonable.
And I don't care what your calculators say, there is no way someone runs 3:29 without being able to sneak under 50!
Has Ebuya ever beaten Zersenay Tadese in Cross? I wouldn't count him out if he was going to do World Cross.
Concerned Citizen wrote:10 under 12:50; about another 70 or so under 13:00. Doesn't seem unreasonable
it does
proportion it up to a M & 10s over 5k is worth ~ 85s over M
therfore at elite M level, in a 85s window, there woud have to be "70" at one tier & then just "10" in the next higher 85s tier to match the 5k
we do not see a 7/1 ratio decrease in 85s improvements in the M
And I don't care what your calculators say, there is no way someone runs 3:29 without being able to sneak under 50!
very possible if you have the over the distance endurance
lets see, a 3'29.0 guy with various 10ks
27'00 ->49.5 , 1'45.5 , 7'22.9 , 12'48.6
26'50 ->49.7 , 1'45.8 , 7'21.8 , 12'45.5
26'40 ->50.0 , 1'46.0 , 7'20.7 , 12'42.3
26'35 ->50.2 , 1'46.2 , 7'20.1 , 12'40.7
26'30 ->50.3 , 1'46.3 , 7'19.6 , 12'39.1
( do the 3 above ring a bell ? )
26'20 ->50.6 , 1'46.6 , 7'18.5 , 12'35.9
26'10 ->50.9 , 1'46.8 , 7'17.4 , 12'32.8
ventolin^3 wrote:
Concerned Citizen wrote:10 under 12:50; about another 70 or so under 13:00. Doesn't seem unreasonableit does
proportion it up to a M & 10s over 5k is worth ~ 85s over M
therfore at elite M level, in a 85s window, there woud have to be "70" at one tier & then just "10" in the next higher 85s tier to match the 5k
we do not see a 7/1 ratio decrease in 85s improvements in the M
And I don't care what your calculators say, there is no way someone runs 3:29 without being able to sneak under 50!
very possible if you have the over the distance endurance
lets see, a 3'29.0 guy with various 10ks
27'00 ->49.5 , 1'45.5 , 7'22.9 , 12'48.6
26'50 ->49.7 , 1'45.8 , 7'21.8 , 12'45.5
26'40 ->50.0 , 1'46.0 , 7'20.7 , 12'42.3
26'35 ->50.2 , 1'46.2 , 7'20.1 , 12'40.7
26'30 ->50.3 , 1'46.3 , 7'19.6 , 12'39.1
( do the 3 above ring a bell ? )
26'20 ->50.6 , 1'46.6 , 7'18.5 , 12'35.9
26'10 ->50.9 , 1'46.8 , 7'17.4 , 12'32.8
They ring a bell . . . I just don't believe in your calculator! But, I suppose you hear that often, so sorry for wasting your time.
Ventolin, I am not sure you understand how talented Daniel Komen was. My guess is that Daniel Komen, the 4th fastest miler in history, faster than Aouita, probably could have run even faster...let me explain. Komen ran his pb 3:46.38 Aug.26,1997. He had run a truly astounding world record of 12:39.74 only 4 days before on Aug.22,1997. Komen's legs had to be less than 100 percent for his 3:46. Daniel Komen probably could have run 3:45, which makes sense considering his other exploits. He had 49 second speed, and if you are unable to grasp that, well...think harder next time.