Sub 2-hour marathon; why isn't it as big a deal as a sub 4-minute mile?

asdfasdfasdasdfasdfasdfa wrote:And yes I believe it is possible on average that Japanese train better for the marathon than the kenyans

bold claim

what evidence have you got ??

to claim kenyans who have been running at elite level for the M for at least 23y since wakihuru's days still don't train better than the japs after all that time does seem absurd

training for a M isn't trying to discover the theory of relativity

The Africans are not some magical guys who can do no wrong

tough to argue with top 40 all-time performances from them

There are also other guys that show endurance ratios (and a few of them even have legitate track times run within a year or two of the marathon records) that suggest that if they were 26:30 runners they would be threatening 2 hours

your premise is wrong

the number of guys running ~ 2"04 & experience that they are likely approaching 26'30 ( if bothering with a 10k ) gives us a possibly asymptotic ratio for elites of ~ 26.5/124

apply that to 2"00'00 & that indicates the breed to approach it will need ~ 25'38 ability or nearly 1'00 faster than your supposed 26'30

the fact that some others may have superior endurance ratios is likely to them being non-elite ( they are very good but limited to your supposed 2"08 ) concentrating virtually totally on endurance & not enough on speed

the africans are trying to set the wr

to do that, you also need speed - all the endurance in the world won't do it - 2"03 is damn fast !

the africans likely mix in plenty of speed work so that they can perhaps go this 26'30/2"04

if they took the jap approach of mostly endurance ( little speedwork ), it's likely that their simulataneous ability may drift out to something like 27'00/2"05

their endurance ratio is getting better, towards this "mythical" japanese ratio, but thir M has ended up 1'00 slower !!!

the speed work needed to run 2"04 necessitates a poorer ration than these japs, etc

Chairman Wow wrote:Did any of you talking about people with "slow" 10ks running fast marathons ever consider that maybe the runner has run closer to his potential in the marathon than in the 10k? On the opposite end consider Nicholas Kemboi and Abebe Dinkesa, numbers 4 and 5 on the all time 10k list (both with PRs of 26:30.xx), who have respective half marathon PRs of 1:02:10 and 1:01:53. Do you really think they have performed up to their capabilities in the half? Do you really think that Bernard Lagat could only go 1:46, or that Michael Johnson could only manage 10.09 in the 100?

very good point

canova who trained kemboi said he couda run 12'45 when he ran that 26'30 which makes a nonsense of his ~ 13'00pb

hicham has even slower pb than bernie for 800 - try telling these guys here that they musta had 1'43 ability when they ran 3'26 & you'll get lambasted

as for mj, i have mentioned that to run 19.32 requires such blistering 100 speed regardless of how good your 400 ability is - i'd reckon he was in high-9.7 shape that day if he'd run the 100 & wouda probably beaten bailey & set the wr

i've found a formula which i have some confidence in which is pretty good for comparing intrinsic values of 1500 - M

it's a conversion factor of speed of 1 event to another of

ratio of distances^0.0691729

2"04 ->26'36

which is pretty close to what we've been saying ( i'm not saying a 2"04 guy shoud run 26'36 ( some obviously can ), but think of it like an iaaf table comparison )

2"00 ->25'44

again pretty close to what was mentioned before

a 2"08 is possibly worth ~ 27'27

Really, really stupid question. It is less of a big deal right now because nobody is close. Arithmetically, 2 03 59 is as close to 1 59 99 as a 4 07 was to 3 59. Do you think there was a media circus around the idea of sub-4 when nobody was even sniffing it? So, theres your answer.

Why not ask why theres no hype around a 3 30 mile, using your same stupid logic?

ventolin^3, regarding endurance ratios, good point. At the end of base training, our ratios are probably at their peak. Add a little speed work and our ratio worsens, but our marathon time improves. Too much speed work and both the ratio and our time worsen. I think there is a slight tendency on these boards to score runners according to their endurance ratios. While a useful measurement of endurance, at the end of a marathon place and time are everything.

Are there any assisted (downhill)marathon courses which are worth circa 4 mins?

marafun fan wrote:

Are there any assisted (downhill)marathon courses which are worth circa 4 mins?

I do not know if there are any, but one could probably be made up. Mike Boit ran a downhill mile in 3:28 once. That is like, conservatively 20 seconds, so presumably you could get somebody to go ~ 1:56-1:57 on a similar course. Of course that would not count, and it is doubtful that someone would waste 2:04-2:06 shape on a gimmick unless there was a lot of money involved.

watching colts so no numbers crunchiching for me for a few hours

you can work out what drop & therefore angle declination ( from arcsin ) for a smooth downhill for a 2"04-flat guy to run 2"00-flat from

t = (T * d^2) / ( d^2 - (2ghT))

where d is race distance of 42195m, t is 2"00-flat, T = 2"04-flat

& h is drop required

You need to look at the standard deviations. Most 26:40 runners will be running about 2:04. There will be some (1 in 100? 1 in 10000?) that run something like 2:02.

ventolin^3 wrote:

i've found a formula which i have some confidence in which is pretty good for comparing intrinsic values of 1500 - M

it's a conversion factor of speed of 1 event to another of

ratio of distances^0.0691729

2"04 ->26'36

which is pretty close to what we've been saying ( i'm not saying a 2"04 guy shoud run 26'36 ( some obviously can ), but think of it like an iaaf table comparison )

2"00 ->25'44

again pretty close to what was mentioned before

a 2"08 is possibly worth ~ 27'27

Why is it absurd to think the japanese train better than the kenyans? It seems to me that is 50/50 (ie either the kenya training is better or japanese is. Granted each country has more than 1 group) and things like talent are going to far exceed the differences in training.

You are assuming the kenyans that have run 2:05 are 26:30 guys. Other than Sammy and Tergat (years before) I don't think any of them have shown that type of track speed. Some of them have obviously bogus times (28:20 in Kenya) but other have golden league meets where they ran 27:20. You think they can run 50s faster over 10k. I think the 26:30 guy will run 200s (i.e 3:20) over the marathon than a 27:20 guy. Both events are infrequently run (there are like 2 fast 10k a year at best and the best guys run 2 marathons and weather plays a huge role) so having outlier times is pretty realistic.

And I am definitely not saying most 26:20 guys are going to threaten 2 hours. I am saying that 26:20 is fast enough for the guy whose best event is the marathon not the 10k.

asdfasdfas wrote:You need to look at the standard deviations. Most 26:40 runners will be running about 2:04. There will be some (1 in 100? 1 in 10000?) that run something like 2:02

26'40/2"02 is same ratio as jap 28'/2"08

however, premise is that the japs run this with this off virtually total endurance & speed stripped out

you therefore apply same logic to africans :

it means a guy running 26'40 off virtually no speedwork & just endurance

i don't think it's possible

well, since ~ 30y ago when both best by africans/japs was ~ 2"09 & since then former have got down to 2"03 & latter only 2"06, i have a strong opinion on whose training is better & it ain't the japs !

you shoud go back & watch lel easily outkicking sammy in '08 in a 2"05

that guy was in 26'30 shape ( & couda well gone into 2"03s with better pacing/weather )

there are also 4 kenyans who have gone 2"04 & all far younger than geb

usually younger guys have more speed & i'd have to speculate at least 1 of 4 those woud be faster than geb over 10k & that means we are bandying 26'30

it's a question worth asking canova who knows/trains them

eh ??

the only 2"04 guy who's run a serious 10k in same year was mutai who went 27'27 in ( not a bullshit 28'20 ) at 5,000+ of nairobi !!!

see what that works out to with ncaa elevation tables

yes

i think 5,000' will slow you down by 50sec over 10k

your premise is flawed as i severely doubt these 2"04 guys are 27'20 ones at the time

that woud work again with your jap 28'/128' ratio but that again implies a guy can run 26'20 off just endurance & virtually no speed - not possible with current humans

So you think the reason that Kenyans and Ethopians are now faster than americans and japanese is because of better training? That wouldn't have made my top 5 list of reasons....Kicks at the end of marathon races are rarely about speed. They are about endurance.You can doubt these guys are 27:00 type runners but there is no proof to support your doubt. My thought if they could be the number 1 or 2 fastest 10k guy in the world, you would see them on the track during the world championships. Heck you don't think any of them would like to be the kenyan national record holder?Altitude races are a total crap shoot. Some guys run awesome times up there but never run the equivalent sea level times. But lets ignore that.You are using Mutai Geoffrey Kiprono 27:27.79 equals 2:04:55 for your equation. what do the numbers look like when you use Kirui Abel28:23 equals 2:05:04 instead? Or Kiprotich Wilson Kipsang(28:37/2:04:55)Last I checked Japanese runners do speed work. A guy like Takaoka Toshinari ran a lot of track races and I doubt you can run 13:15/27:35 with no speed work. you could say that when focused on the marathon he became a 13:30/28 min guy but he was also running 2:06. How much of that reduction in speed is training versus opportunity is hard to say.

the difference is one group can run 2"03 whereas others can only go 2"06

the difference can be summarised as :

talent + quality of training

this must equal ~3'00

you are saying latter is 0 or even -ve, which is not feasible

rarely, but not always

experience shows it is easy to see when someone's kick at the end is genuine - lel's certainly is

also kick in the M is not just simply last 400m - no one measures last 400m time of a M

for a 2"05-flat guy, it is better to see how they may run the distance from either/& 40km or 25 miles to the end & assuming a flat course, how quick that is

normally a 2"05 flat guy woud cover this in :

40km -> end : 6'30

25 miles -> end : 5'48

if the guy covers those distances in say 15 or 20s faster than that, that is good evidence for a good kick at the end

i suggest you read some of a canova's posts

he has little doubt that any guy who can run 2"04 woud be < 27'00 & likely << 27'00

kenyans also have trials for 10k & you have to be in top 3

it woud mean giving up latter 1/2 of a season & missing 2 valuable Ms - a summer one & an autumn one in order to train more for 10k - even 26'30 shape woudn't beat kennster/tadesse or the actual top kenyan 10k guy - komon or kiprop ( kenyans may have not run 26'30 recently but there are guys out there with kogo's talent of 26'35 from 4y ago, but like him haven't really got a good enough race to repeat that or do it for 1st time ) & even 1st prize of 10k wc is paltry compared to a M win in a course record

even if they go 26'20, they aren't going to get same money as a 2"07 in new york, so no, economically, it ain't worth it

he won that race in 28'23

seeing as he won & didn't finish 5th in the field with winner going 27'30, it is impossible to say how much effort he put in - he may have just followed a derisory pace & then just kicked in last lap

no

it means he likely followed a derisory pace & kicked only at the end

that 10k was from 3y ago when he hadn't even run a M

if you seriously believe a 3y ole 10k time represents his current 10k ability you better think again

yes you can

it's not exactly 13'00/27'00 let alone 12'37/26'17

i suggest you look at his 5k which is better measure of speed than 10k

'00 - 13'15 & no M

'02 - 13'29 & 2"06'16

'03 - 13'24 & 2"07'59

he ran that 13'15 in a quality euro race & almost certainly running to his limit coming 5th in 13'15 with race won in 13'11 by ismael kirui whereas the 13'29 was in a low quality jap race where he came 2nd, 1s behind a low quality kenyan

i doubt very much his 5k speed changed anymore than 5 - 10s between running no M & running 2"06 ( & that 5 - 10s couda been all swallowed up in pace differences in the lower quality jap race compared to faster better quality euro race ) & that is pretty trivial speed change

I am sure a 2:05 guy is going to be around 27 I also think most 26:30 guys will be around 2:02:30 and a few of them will be close to 2 hours. When there have been a thousand 26:30 guys we can see who is right. That will take about 30 years.

And yes I think talent can cause more than a 3 min difference in a marathon so I don't buy you argument that because they are running fast they are training better.

You kick argument is incoherent. Running the last 2k fast is all about endurance

I sort of doubt if Toshinari (and I have never seen his training specifically) did "speedwork"he would have gone from a 13:15 guy to a 12:50 guy. I am guessing that is more a lack of 5k talent issue. I can say that a 27:35 guy (and 27:35 is a pretty legit 10k time for a 13:!5 runner) can run 2:06. How come those 26:40 kenyans can't run 4 mins faster than he did?

no

those 2"04 guys will be around 26'30

get this into your skull once & for all

sammy ran 26'41 as a bare kid

older & much stronger he was in undoubtedly in 2"04 shape in peking & virtually certainly he was faster than 26'41 just thru physical maturation

so correlation of 2"04 is much more likely to be with ~ 26'30

based on that,

2"05 is going to be ~ 26'45

2"06 is going to be ~ 27'00

2"07 is going to be ~ 27'15

2"08 is going to be ~ 27'30

for elite africans

an african who runs 2"02 is going to be in likely ~ 26'00 shape

i'm sure one of your beloved japs can run 2"02 off 26'30, but find me one who can run 26'30 anytime in next 2 decades & then it might be of fractional interest

try 100y

eh ???

so the africans/japs were both around 2"09 mark 30y go which indicates to me a similar level of talent & now africans go 2"03 & japs only 2"06

obviously the africans have tapped into a new genetic source pool different from one 30y ago as their training is inferior to the japs ???

no

it means you have comprehension difficulties

if a guy already running at 2"05 pace ups his pace significantly in last 5'00 of race it is proportionately the same as :

- 10k runner of ~27'00 ability upping speed in last 64s of a 10k race or ~ last lap

- 5k runner of ~ 13'00 ability upping speed in last 31s of a 5k race or ~ last 200m

that is known as KICKING

did you not read the post previously ???

if the kenyan stripped out all his speed & worked only on endurance he woud start drifting out to 13+ & 27+ & his 2"04 drifting to 2"05

however kenyan wants to run his fastest, not satisy some anal-retentive statiscally insignificant endurance ratio & sacrifices some endurance for speed so he can go 2"04 instead of 2"05

learn this concept : time of paramount importance, ratio of anal-retentitive insignificance

So 30 years ago, westerners and kenyans had the same talent level in all distance races. Care to tell us the training secret the kenyans discovered that allowed them to pull away from the rest of the world? As far as Sammy running fast as a junior, there is a long list of east africans who ran PRs as juniors and never ran faster. None of Sammys PRs in the years since suggest he has improved. Granted their isn't a lot of room for improvement at this level.As far as the kick your proportions are the same but that is meaningless. Running fast for 5 min is largely aerobic power. Running fast for 64s is largely anaerobic. Have you ever looked at the training schedule of the japanese runners? Your no speed work is patently false for most of the ones I have seen. There are lots of slow miles but there are also the 3-4 fast workouts a week. You can argue about what they are doing (i.e. I see things like 10x400 but not 10x10s up hill) but it isn't like they are just going out and running 200mpw. I am pretty sure an athlete like Radcliff tried to max out her 10k potential before running the marathon. She just happened to be a better marathoner than 10k runner. It happens.

2:00:00.00 will never be broken for 26.2 miles dope-free.