Putting Shalane's Marathon Debut in Perspective

YUP! I agree...proof is in the pudding...there's been many great "potentials"...until the potential proves that they can do what they intend to do...all is not....so until the day happens that they all meet...or the trials...(figuring in injuries and mind changes)...we'll wait'n'see.

Bottom line..228 is whatever you want it to be.

Bring all 3 of them to Boston. Shalane will have the hometown advantage. K Goucher will have the advantage of previously racing on the course. Davila will have the advantage of the Hansons preparation for the course. I am getting excited about the possibility. Come on John Hancock make it happen.

In all this reckoning, Shalane has a surrogate. She and Kim Smith have traded wins and PB's for the last six years, and are like each other's shadow, advantage Shalane. Look up Kim's PB for the marathon and you will have a much better idea of Shalane's current fitness on a flat course.

this is almost funny. as people said, you can't compare the 2 courses and races and desi was never in contention for the win. she won't come within 3 minutes of shalane at the trials

Folks..... I know Roger Robinson personally and have even more reason to admire him. But let's not distort what he actually wrote. He wrote that Desi ran a faster time in 2010. That's ALL he wrote on that. He did NOT conclude that that made her superior to Shalane or likely to defeat Shalane.

I don't see how you could possibly claim that a woman who is several minutes behind the leader in Chicago turned in a better performance from someone who still looked like a possible winner at 24 miles in NYC. And....Roger didn't make that claim.

Ummmmm.....my remark was an example of something called sarcasm but thanks for pointing out that widely known fact.

They all come. Kara cries at the finish line after both Desi and Shalane beat her and then complains that it took her too long to get in shape after the baby. Desi quietly beats her and runs a strong 2nd, for Americans. Shalane rocks. End of story. Next!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You ran 2;27 xx 30 years ago how can you be excited about the US women running the same time now?you were 4 mins behind Waitz in her NYC 2:25WRthese women are 12 mins off the current WR.Who is The Jaguar you and Wine Turtles spoke about?

patti wrote:

YUP! I agree...proof is in the pudding...there's been many great "potentials"...until the potential proves that they can do what they intend to do...all is not....so until the day happens that they all meet...or the trials...(figuring in injuries and mind changes)...we'll wait'n'see.

Bottom line..228 is whatever you want it to be.

One can realistically come to realistic conclusions before hand and be reasonably right.......most of the time.

If you'd like to place a side bet, I'm in. Under normal conditions, Shalane and Desi will make the team. Is it a for sure thing, of course not, everybody knows that. Do you think "3" female marathons with pr's of 2:32 are going to take the top 3 spots? Is it possible, sure. Probable, no way Patti.

Kara, I won't bet on that one, but the other 2 I will.

you are right only time will tell for sure, but it is fun to predict.

who will make the team? kastor? flanagan? davilla? goucher? boulet, huddle, my picks are

lisa koll

shalane flanagan

desiree davilla

will any one get usa citizenship in time for the trials? belainesh gebre said probably not, it will probabably take a few years for her to get it.

demissie mekkonen aka teyba naser i heard wants USA citizenship, but i dont know her timetable.

buzinesh deba i dont know her situation but she has been living and racing in the USA for awhile.

bump

they are all fantastic chicas, but I am always impressed with Shalane's success on the track leading up to her marathon - I tend to appreciate and athlete's range.

True. Realistically speaking, no one truly knows, but if I HAD to pick 2 runners, I'd also pick Shalane Flanagan and Desiree Davilia. Shalane was not tested in any way and Desiree is for real. Shalane doesn't have to win, just top 3 and I can't see her not doing that. I predict Goucher will be a big bust on that day and who knows who will get the 3rd spot. Kastor?

I hope that Shalane and Kara are both on the team but the only runner that I will be shocked if she doesn't make the team is Desiree Davila. Desiree has better coaching than any of the other contenders in the marathon. She has gotten faster in every marathon that she has run and will probably be in 2:23 shape for the trials. Much like we saw with Brian Sell, she will be ready when it counts.

I agree. Desi not making the team would be a shocker, based on her marathon progression. Like a couple posts above, I too don't see Kara making it (although many will disagree), but Shalane with her 10,0000 speed, her I also cannot see coming in any worse than 3rd. Who will the other runner, who knows? Lewy-Boulet, Kastor, Higgins, and unknown, ???? Too many possibilites when we are talking one day and only one race and still too far out to tell.

What in the world has Higgins ever accomplished to belong in that company?

I think his point was an unknown, her or someone else, popping one that day. Ever hear of Conover, Heffner, Pfitzinger, Coogan, MLB, etc.... Anyone who is anywhere close to 2:30 going into that race could get the 3rd spot, ON THAT DAY, by popping a pr and a favorite not feeling her cheerios. Is she capable of a sub 2:30? Yes, so she has an outside chance. Does that help?

I agree that anyone capable of breaking 2:30 on that day has a punchers chance. I just don't see Paige Higgins as someone with the capabilities of breaking 2:30. I am not sure she has ever broken 1:15 for half the distance or 33:30 for 10k.

Outsiders would include anyone that is under 1:13 for a half or sub 33 minute 10k, and there are plenty of them. Paige Higgins is NOT one of them.

Pay attention?????? Sage advice, you should try some yourself. Try reading and your eyes will be opened.

Paige Higgins, who has had much bad luck with injuries, has broken 1:15. If she would have been totally healthy at that race she would have been with Melissa White (mid 1:13's, but with a pr of 1:12:38) and both have an outside chance if things go their way. Melissa has broken 1:13, as said, but she hasn't broken 2:32. Translation: You don't know what's going to happen that day and a 2:30-2:32 marathoner may run 2:28 and be 3rd. His Paige Higgins name is a stretch to win, I agree, but you need to do your research and see what she's done while injured and you may agree that she is in Melissa's range which is someone who does have an outside chance for a 3rd spot, believe it or not.