Can Solinsky be the first non-african under 7:30 @ Rieti?

some crazy runner guy wrote:

True but lagat just failed to do it and we can all agree that lagat is faster than Sol especially in that distance range. I really do hope he does though, all these records need to come down.

The result of one race by runner "L" has little bearing to the result of another competition by runner "S".

Secondly, it's pretty clear that Solinsky has the hot hand right now, and Lagat is cold, cold, cold.

1 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.1.87 7:28.99 PB

2 Vincent Chepkok KEN 5.7.88 7:31.41 PB

3 Edwin Soi KEN 3.3.86 7:33.21 SB

4 John Kipkoech KEN 29.12.91 7:33.85 PB

5 Thomas Longosiwa KEN 14.1.82 7:33.89 SB

6 Jacob Chesari KEN 6.4.84 7:34.71 PB

7 Bernard Lagat USA 12.12.74 7:35.11

8 David Bett KEN 18.10.92 7:37.51

1 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.1.87 12:55.03

2 Imane Merga ETH 15.10.88 12:56.34

3 Chris Solinsky USA 5.12.84 12:56.45

4 Vincent Chepkok KEN 5.7.88 12:57.77

5 Mo Farah GBR 23.3.83 12:57.94 NR PB

6 Edwin Soi KEN 3.3.86 12:58.91 SB

10 David Bett KEN 18.10.92 13:06.06 PB

How much do you want to bet on it Malmo? You have NFI. Lagat is also running in Rieti; my money has him beating Solinsky. You might be interested to hear he felt heavy from the first lap in Berlin however he WAS STILL 2nd at the bell in 6:33 (such was his commitment to running fast). What happens if he feels good in his next race (ie Rieti). Some of you who profess to 'know' from where you live in Nth Dakoto.......you actually know v little of what goes on in the world of pro running. I was there in London just 9 days ago watching Lagat walk all over Farah (and Kiptoo who had smashed everyone incl Solinsky in Stockholm a week before). He is in good shape.

Truth Sayer wrote:

300m Pietro MENNEA (ITA) 32.28

I know it isnt run very often, but if Pietro set this record, then it has to be 35-38 Years Old, No?

I think he can, but it want be easy. The 3K is a strange animal, although the WR is 7:20, most world class 3Ks are won in 7:30+; I have seen steller 3k fields where the race is won in 7:32. I think if the race is fast and Solinski is with the leaders, he will run right around 7:30; slightly above or below would not suprise me. I know Solinski has run a faster 5K than Kenndey, but remember Solinski has become a 5K/10K guy, while BK was milers/5K guy when he set the AR in the 3K.

Running a sub-7:30 would be a big deal because very few Africans have even done that, probably about a about half dozen in the last 20 years.

Am i alone in knowing .... wrote:

How much do you want to bet on it Malmo? You have NFI. Lagat is also running in Rieti; my money has him beating Solinsky. You might be interested to hear he felt heavy from the first lap in Berlin however he WAS STILL 2nd at the bell in 6:33 (such was his commitment to running fast). What happens if he feels good in his next race (ie Rieti). Some of you who profess to 'know' from where you live in Nth Dakoto.......you actually know v little of what goes on in the world of pro running. I was there in London just 9 days ago watching Lagat walk all over Farah (and Kiptoo who had smashed everyone incl Solinsky in Stockholm a week before). He is in good shape.

He may be in good shape, but he hasn't shown "lagat shape" since early June.

There was a good reason why Lagat was in London rather than Stockholm or Zurich. Winning in a 7:40 race isn't the same was winning a 7:30 race. I can't imagine anyone thinking that Farah and Kiptoo would ever beat Lagat in a 7:40 race.

Lagat hasn't shown he was "lagat" since early June. His best race since Oslo 2 1/2 months ago was Monoco, a very un-Lagat 7th place.

1 Bernard Lagat USA 12.12.74 7:40.36

2 Mo Farah GBR 23.3.83 7:40.75 SB

3 Mark Kiptoo KEN 21.6.76 7:41.56 SB

4 Collis Birmingham AUS 27.12.84 7:42.39 PB

5 Galen Rupp USA 8.5.86 7:43.24 PB

6 Chris Thompson GBR 17.4.81 7:43.34 PB

7 Micah Kogo KEN 3.6.86 7:45.66

8 Craig Mottram AUS 18.6.80 7:45.87 SB

9 Titus Mbishei KEN 28.10.90 7:47.84 PB

10 Adrian Blincoe NZL 4.11.79 7:49.21 SB

11 Moumin Geele SOM 6.4.86 7:49.65 PB

Hrm. Last year was probably Solinsky's first 'serious' year as a pro and he ran 7:37 / 13:18. Now he's a 12:55 / 26:59 guy...I can see sub 7:30 for him. But I think he would have to be running for time, not place, to pull it off.

dfdfdfdfdfdf wrote:

Hrm. Last year was probably Solinsky's first 'serious' year as a pro and he ran 7:37 / 13:18. Now he's a 12:55 / 26:59 guy...I can see sub 7:30 for him. But I think he would have to be running for time, not place, to pull it off.

Anyway... I think Kennedy's run will be safe. He was a badass and I think that record will stand safely. Solinsky is a longer distance runner; I'm not really sure if he has the speed for a 3k; nor is he. I will say this: if he wants to be a legit 5k runner on the world scene, he'll need that AR 3k. He said last race he didn't have the guts to take the lead... imagine if he had. He'll need speed toughness, ultimately, to compete with the Africans... 7:30 speed, that is... If Sol. can attack 7:30 the way Teg did not long ago, then we're looking at an actual American medalist (along with Ritz) in the 2012 5ks. If he can't, then he'll stick to the 10k for 2012 and get sixth, best case.

If Solinsky had taken the lead in the 5k when the pace slowed, he may have gotten the AR, but he definitely wouldn't have won the race. As it turns out, he wasn't going to win anyways, but he had no way to know that. It's just his style, and (unfortunately for record buffs), Solinsky will need a PERFECT race to get the AR. And by perfect, I mean two things:

1) great pacing by great rabbits in the beginning and middle

2) someone ELSE to take the lead and push the pace HARD in the last 25% of the race. This is why the Stanford 10k played out so well.

The slowest part of any race run for time (i.e. not tactical championships), from high school all the way up through the elite european races, is after the first half and until the last lap. Good rabbits who can stay on well after 50% of the race is over help a LOT, but no matter the distance, the last ~25% of a distance race will be faced alone. All great runners can close fast (55ish) if the last 25% prior to the last lap is slow. But they won't hit records, because when records are set, the record-setter HAMMERS that last 25% all the way. Bob Kennedy was of the "going-for-it" mentality, not the patient "run-to-win" mentality that Solinsky has. It will serve CS better in championship races, but will hinder him in record attempts.

The trend seems to be - fast in the early stages, slow in the middle, and a furious kick in the last lap. This doesn't work as well with the 3k because he needs to be averaging around 60 per 400m. All it takes is one or two 63s or 64s and it's over.

The pacer peels off and everybody just hits the brakes. If this happens - Solinsky has to commit and take on the pace. This is where having someone like Lagat would be handy. Both could take turns leading and have an honest effort @ the AR.

Latest from Lagat's twitter feed:

"took 2 days to regroup and refocus. next up: rieti and split"

Really hope Lagat and Solinsky work together.

Why are there so few sub 7:30s when there are lots of sub 13s? 7:30 is tough. But it seems to me that in the 3k when you do not have the constant possibility of one or more guys running 7:27 or better, as you used to have with Mourhit, Saidi Sief, other drug cheats, Komen, El G, Geb, Bekele, you have nobody to follow to a sub 7:30 when the rabbits step off the track, and so the pace always lags. 59s and 60s are tough when you are not drafting, as the wind resistance is greater than with 62s in the 5k. Lagat showed at Oslo that he was still capable of shattering Kennedy's record and he seemed to be in even better shape recently when he ran 3:32 at Monaco, a time that he couldn't touch earlier in the season. He failed in his last attempt but I would not be inclined to bet against him with Solinsky in the race, given that the American record hangs in the balance and the latter has shown the consistency and the significant improvement over BK at 5k that he could take the record. I see Lagat at 7:29 and Solinsky at 7:30.5, under the old record. But I'd love to see a big old struggle for the record between them down the stretch.

as malmo pointed out astutely, 7'30 is over-rated compared to 13'00

main reason we don't see ``13'00 guys running 7'30 is appalling wabbiting with seemingly reasonable 5'00 always seeming to end up at 5'05+, which gives little chance of 7'30, as they just maintain nothing better than 61s/400 to bell, resulting in 6'36/6'37 there & no chance of anything better than about 7'32 as a result

for sol, using

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

& working with main figure of likely current 12'50 - 12'52.5 ability ( the lack of impetus in the 4th km always slows it down to ~ 12'55 ) & bearing in mind his 26'59 was run with a finishing 1'56, which indicated certainly below 26'50 if run hard gun to tape

lets try 12'52.5 & various current possible 1500s & use the 10k estimate to "tune" his 3k

12'52.5 with

3'36 ->7'30.2 , 26'45.5

3'35 ->7'29.3 , 26'49.3

3'34 ->7'28.5 , 26'53.2

1st or 2nd line looks in ballpark, but then again, i think he's worth faster than 12'52.5 currently, so all those estimates are likely to be wrong for him

let's try :

12'50 with

3'36 ->7'29.3 , 26'37.6

3'35 ->7'28.5 , 26'41.5

3'34 ->7'27.6 , 26'45.3

3'33 ->7'26.8 , 26'49.1

1st 2 lines have too quick a 10k, so throw those out

the answer lies in the last 2 lines :

currently, he looks like a 3'33/3'34 &

7'26/7'27

in his perfect race...

You do realize Geb (12:39, 26:22) only managed 7:25 and had several attempts at the distance throughout his career!???

Solinsky's perfect is no faster than 7:29-7:30 if everything is going perfectly from gun to tape....

Big Ben Big Ben wrote:You do realize Geb (12:39, 26:22) only managed 7:25 and had several attempts at the distance throughout his career!???

very much so, but not one time did he get prequisite 4'53/4'54 pace - best was ~ 4'56, which really scuppers any shot at 7'20 & there really was no point killing himself for a 7'22/7'23

the key to look is at the indoor times, which empirically have ~ 101/102 conversion to outdoor

geb's indoor was much superior to his outdoor 3k & gives idea of his capability if he'd got a 4'53/4'54 split

Solinsky's perfect is no faster than 7:29-7:30 if everything is going perfectly from gun to tape....

you underestimate him : he has <<27'00 endurance & close to 12'50 ability - knee jerk times he resembles are mourhit ( but sol has done it all clean )

ventolin^3 wrote:

the answer lies in the last 2 lines :

currently, he looks like a 3'33/3'34 &

7'26/7'27

in his perfect race...

a) he has been training for 5k/10k, with focus on strength all season, why do you think he is currently in shape to run a FOUR second pr at 1500?

b) I am not sure if anyone in history has run their "perfect race."

c) and the discussion here is what he is capable of in HIS NEXT RACE, not his "perfect race". I doubt after a long season, with more focus on longer races, he is currently capable of his best performance at 3k.

d) as I stated with my #'s, his 5k and 10k times (what he has actually done), are = to ~ 7:31/7:32 if one considers Komen's 3k WR equivalent in quality to Bekele's records at 5k/10k. And I see no reason to doubt that Komen's record is not = in quality to Bekele's.

But let's say, as you state, that Solinsky is capable of a little faster, RIGHT NOW, in 5k/10k than he has actually done (which I am not sure if he is. He has been in some great quality races, been towed along, and has run 12:55, and 12:56 twice). But for the sake of argument, let's give him a capability of 12:52.5. If he is indeed capable of that (unlikely at this moment0, that would put him at 102% (1.02 x) of the 5k record. That factor x the 3k record puts him just under 7:30 (7:29.5). So he might be capable of 7:30:

* IF he is capable of 12:52.5 right now in his best race, and

* IF he is as good at 3k as he is at 5k right now (doubtful), and

* IF he runs his best race possible this weekend.

Those are a lot of "if's". I agree he is capable of sub 7:30, but don't think it will happen this weekend.

But for you to say that Solinsky is capable, right now, in a perfect race, of 7:26, can only mean that your calculations, either, A) have little respect for Komen's 7:20 in comparison to Bekele's WR's at 5k/10k (and I am not sure why that would be), and/or B) you think Solinksy is a much better miler than he actually is.

I highly doubt Chris is on any sort of decline, he is the largest distance runner at his current speed, I'm sure his durability is far better than the smaller Dathan's and Alan's we've been supporting.

Mark Carroll of Ireland ran 7:30 on the dot and he also ran 13:03 for 5k. One of the fastest people ever at the distance and he never cracked 13 minutes. All of those guys can do it if it is the right day for them. They ALL have the tools, and it is just a matter of everything being right that day. Solinsky has the ABILITY to run between 7:25-7:30. Now he just has to do it.

err...

because strength also makes you quicker at shorter distances

see what mo did to his 1500pb in one fell swoop & he wasn't training for 1500

komen's 12'39 was split-wise for kms

his last race was pretty damn good

unfortunately for you, it's nonsense

kennster's wrs are better

you forget simple proposition : komen's best distance/run may have been his 12'39

see above

err...

when you find one where the leader bothered to run a 4th km of 2'33 you have a leg to stand on

err...

try again

simplistic linear relationships don't work

something more sophisticated please

err...

false dichotomy

many more choices

an infrequently run distance, barely run more often than the mile on euro circuit invariably makes komen's wr look better than it is

see mo

do some hard work :

best, invariable ( unlike iaaf tables which need updating instantaneously ) formula for distance conversions, is

speed Y = speed X * ( X / Y )^0.06917

it works excellently for

1500 - M

- great for men 3k - M : then think komen when putting in 7'20.67 for 1500 & see if it applies to that

- great for women 1500 - 1/2M : see what it indicates for paula's M

overall, it encompasses men & women excellently overall for

1500 - M ( with above overliers : women's 1500 works as well as men's M )

try above for 7'20.67 for 1500/2k/5k/10k/0.5M/M & show me the figures with discussion...