Rupp 10,000 meter prediction thread

A Ritz PR does not mean that race went that fast. As I recall the first 2-3000M of that race went out pretty slow. Only around mid race did the pace go into a crushingly fast grind. We know in hindsight that Ritz was in fantastic shape then. He said in his interview right after the WC that he felt he was in 27:10 shape yet he finished some 15-20 seconds slower as I recall.

[quote]a wrote:

Meb did it with a 13:11 pr. That really isn't that different than Rupp's indoor time. To go sub 27 he is going to need to be down sub 13:05 in the 5k. That might be at the upper end of Rupp's potential right now but doesn't seem too unreasonable.

I would still be surprised by a record. A lot had to go right for one to happen if when the runner is in good enough shape to break it.

[quote]5er wrote:[/

You really don't need to be at 13:05 to run 27:00 give or take. Zersenay Tadesse has run 26:37 and only 12:59. He has only rarely run inside 13:10 and during three different years he has run over 13:05 for his best time of the year while still managing to run at least 27:04. If your a strong long driver you have a shot at 27:00 if you can run in the 13:10 range.

I'm not saying rupp is tadesse or that he will get the record. I am saying that when people say you need to have run X in this event or that event to run Y in another it one stupid and two they are almost always examples of people who have done what they said can't be done.

I would also add that rupp ran 27:30 in a pace set fast race in 2007, three years ago. He has since twice run in the 27:30's at mid summer championships in hot weather. You can say what you want about Bekele running sub 27 there but Bekele isn't a 26:55 guy he is a 26:17 guy and he sure as hell wasn't running those times there.

Also in the winter of '09 rupp and Al Sal said he would take a shot at the long standing AR at the indoor 5k and he broke it. This winter they said he was in better shape and he ran 13:14 and was under his own record.

I myself would feel better if they were taking their shot down at Stanford, but for the people saying it is stupid or crazy to say the kid has a shot I'd like to know why?

don't have a clue what Rupp will run, but I will cheering for him!

if he gets close to the record with 2 laps to go I may go insane!...break things in the house!....get drunk!.....start a new thread and post faster than anyone else!......but I try a remain clam if I can....

GO RUPP!

27:16.4

I'll be there

good weather, AR

not good weather, 27:20-27:30

NObama SUCKS wrote:

look, dude, you casually said he will run a 26:58 season opener, only the fastest non-african time in HISTORY by nearly 10 seconds, and the fastest "white" time (we'll call Barrios a part "indian") in HISTORY by 14 seconds, and of course crush the American Record by like 15 seconds.

Are you starting to realize the significance of a 26:58?? That's a HUGE lifetime goal for Rupp and Ritz. Not a season opener rust-buster race goal.

He ain't breaking 27. No way, no how.

27:24

27:24...This is the time I am most able to accept so far. I think it will be closer to 27:30 either because of travel or less than ideal weather at Eugene

I don't quite understand many of you guys logic that "it's too early to run fast." Isn't this the same race he pr'd 3 years ago in? Isn't this the same race Sammy C. pr'd and took the NCAA record away in? Didn't Rupp run a pr in the indoor 5k just two months ago?

I don't think it's too early in the season to pr in the 10k for him. That is his weakest pr (he set it three years ago) and he's drastically improved his fitness since then. I say anyone predicting he won't be sub 27:30 is on crack. The question is how low will he go and will he get the AR, he's obviously going to pr.

Personally, by watching him race the last 18 months I believe he could come close to the AR on a 25 lap solo race (weather permiting). He's that good right now.

But lets all just wait and see. Should be exciting to watch if you are lucky enough to be there!

He is going to PR by between 3 and 5 seconds.

Flying! wrote:

He is going to PR by between 3 and 5 seconds.

And that would be an utter failure in the eyes of some Rupp fans, apparently.

X-Runner wrote:

His point was someone said he didn't run Berlin as a time trial race yet Ritz ran a PR so the opportunity was there.

Your point that he peaked earlier is fine, just don't say he wasn't in a fast race (which someone else said).

Anyway, I don't like the contingency plan of going to Stanford if the weather is bad.

Mentally it gives him a chance to quit before he starts and that doesn't sound very committed.

I gotta say, if you and "Coach D" really don't understand why Ritz might PR at Worlds and Rupp might not have, you either haven't followed anything these guys were doing the previous couple years or simply don't understand the whole running/racing thing.

You do understand the peaking thing right? The thing where you start with base, add workouts, start racing and eventually peak? Well Rupp did that 3 times prior to worlds in the 9 months leading up to it on a college schedule. He then carried on to USA's and was likely running off of fumes at worlds, and it was a remarkable effort considering.

Ritz on the other hand had a perfect build up to Worlds. Absolutely perfect. And he benefited from not thinking he'd finish quite that high.

Now that Rupp is in a build up phase rather than and over-the-peak phase he'll have a much better shot. As others have said, if they are stating his intention to go for it, he's ready. His workouts are probably phenomenal now and as good or better than Dathans were during worlds/AR 5K. The biggest question is weather and help, and of the two weather is by far the biggest decider.

Rupp ran 28:15 as a junior with a sub 14:00 second half, alone. I think in similar conditions he can run and 27:25 pace and close it out under 27:20 but to get down to the AR he'll need some help most of the race. Meb was dragged and actually dropped to the AR.

For the heck of it:

If Eugene nice weather: 27:12.7

If Palo Alto nice weather: 27:08.7

If Eugene typical weather: 27:24.3

If Palo Alto windy weather: 27:17.6

Surprised at the lack of faith here. I thought we all pretty much agreed that Ritz probably had 27:00 fitness last year (with 12:56 and 60:00 on either side), and that Rupp was about 20 seconds behind. Rupp has shown himself to be several seconds faster at 3K and 5K this year indoors, so it's quite reasonable to think he might hit 27:05 - 27:10 this year.

That said, times that fast just don't happen in the U.S., so a new PR of 27:20 also seems most likely to me for this weekend.

Also, getting beat by Simon Bairu? What are you people smoking? Bairu is a great XC runner, but he's never done anything near that on the track.

27:08

Fan boys? wrote:

Surprised at the lack of faith here. I thought we all pretty much agreed that Ritz probably had 27:00 fitness last year (with 12:56 and 60:00 on either side), and that Rupp was about 20 seconds behind. Rupp has shown himself to be several seconds faster at 3K and 5K this year indoors, so it's quite reasonable to think he might hit 27:05 - 27:10 this year.

That said, times that fast just don't happen in the U.S., so a new PR of 27:20 also seems most likely to me for this weekend.

Also, getting beat by Simon Bairu? What are you people smoking? Bairu is a great XC runner, but he's never done anything near that on the track.

Anyone who thinks Rupp is not a whole lot better than 3 years ago at every distance including 10K (when 27:33) is off to Mars or stating a poor time as an effort to hate.

Rupp lit Ritz up at US Champs last year while hanging on from 3 NCAA championship seasons. Outdoors he ran at least 3 races at conference, regionals and NCAA's and while those my not have all physically maxed him out, they certainly took the tool on the adrenal gland and his head.

After that he was hanging on and making the best of it for the summer, certainly not climbing towards a peak physically or mentally as Ritz was.

Both on the same page, they are probably interchangeable if both healthy at 5K & 10K. Ritz's late summer is the best indication of what Rupp can do at 5K and 10K in a maxed out effort.

Good news is Rupp is done with college and he'll have the summer to finally lay it out there, hopefully Webb and Ritz will be there too.

What is going to be funny is if the conditions are nice and he runs around an AR time, people will bring up steroids. People just won't be able to fathom that a guy can run their PB at the age of 21, then have 3 healthy years of quality training and "suddenly" improve on that PB by 20 seconds. Shocking, just shocking, lol.

That said, I'm skeptical as I type this here in Portland OR that conditions are going to be that good. Moreover, its unclear to me how good the pace setting will be. A time in the 27:20s wouldn't be that surprising or be that much of a disappointment.

In any case, Salazar and Rupp have a pretty clear record of being honest and straight forward about what they hope to achieve in a race, then executing their plan and coming at least close to what they wanted to achieve. If Salazar is openly saying they want to run a fast race around AR pace, then its very likely that Rupp will be at least close to that. Again, weather permitting. And for reasons stated, its not that unreasonable why he couldn't.

You do understand when I say "your point that he peaked earlier is fine", that I am agreeing that he peeked earlier? (don't know how I could be more explicit than that)

I actually think we all agree that Rupp did have the opportunity to run pretty fast, he just wasn't in top form for that race. We are all just arguing each other out of context with at least 4 people in the argument.

He just needs to go to Hengelo or something and mix it up in a real international go-for-time race.

Come on. Scheduling a Friday night race at home while having a plane ticket for a Saturday race somewhere else while also potentially scheduling a pick-up home race the same Saturday in case Friday was too windy and he may not feel like traveling when he wakes up on Saturday?

Haha, completely agree. Can't waid for the PED accusations for the "sudden" or "huge" PR comes into play while many of us have said for the past 3 years that he could run 27:20 or better, and last year (mid college season) many were starting to suggest he'll be targetting 27:00 on his first summer season campaign.

Some people forget how easy he made that 27:33 look in 2007. He wasn't dragged to the line like a European race or Meb in his AR, he did a hop, skip and jump fartlek thru the field and then won it. I was one of the guys who thought that if in a more challenging field and if he had known he could (that was a big PR for him back then) he could have hit 27:25 that day.

Think not? Think again:

oops bad link, couldn't find the cardinal invite 10K from 2007

I hope I'm too conservative, but 27:30 sounds realistic -- nothing to bash him about. Europe is when he needs to run fast.

I have no prediction, I'll just be rooting for him to do something big.