RYAN HALL will finish ??? at NYC

Mr,Ryan Hall, first and a new American Record.

The winner is the won who can hang through the early surges and be there at mile 21, and then who can run the best the last 5 miles in the park. Can Hall do this, we will see. Forever NYCfan

I still say second, 20 seconds back of leader.

I hope Hall gets in the top 5, but I think it might be a stretch with so many guys possibly having a good day...

Another good question is:

How will Sell run if this is his last pro marathon? Some might say that he will run with more determination since this will be a lasting impression. Others may think the motovation might not be there.

I'm a Sell fan, so I hope he runs well.

in an interview he said he's going out in 1:07

he hopes to run 2:13

I think a top 10 finish will be a successful day for him.

1st place - 2:08:35

no way, faster. too much talent at the starting line. unless its a slow start or poor coniditions, it should be right around 2:07

edumacator-your are somewhat correct but you can't compare prs from a pancake flat course like London to predict success on a tough marathon course like NYC. look at bejing and how Hall ran. you need to have an exceptional day to place well at NYC if not the tough course will beat you. hence if Hall runs well he get top 5.

Patrick Makau-2:08;01

Meb v. Hall for 6/7th-2:10+

Even with the stacked field and good conditions, I would be suprised if the field takes off at CR pace or below. Like a lot of championship races or races with really stacked field (and no pacers), all the guys will be watching each other and waiting until at least First Avenue. They'll probably roll through the half at an honest, but not particularly fast pace. Call it 1:04:30. So, with everyone still in contention, it will be a race of who can run the fastest half marathon tired. Several of the guys have faster PR's over the distance than Hall, but I think a lot of that will be negated from the previous 13 miles of NY hills and pavement. Hall's strength is his strength, and if the race comes down to a long, sustained surge of 9-11 miles, he'll be in the mix. He did 1:02 and some change over the last half of the Olympic Trials course after a conservative first half. To win this race, he'll probably have to be under 1:02. Regardless, we'll know who is serious and who is a pretender when Ramalaa throws down a 4:25 on First Avenue. I don't think you can pick Ryan Hall to win; the field is just too strong, but I'm pretty confident that he'll be in it to the end. Call it top three, no more than 45 seconds off the pace--and if he has the race of his life, then the win with a huge negative split over the second half of the race.

I agree he has to have a negative split to win, and I think he has a good chance this time. He will have learned (or at least better have) from Boston that he can't be reckless in the 1st 1/2.

And he may not have the same kind of hunger that the Africans do, but I have to believe he is getting tired of hearing things like "good performance for an American". He wants a win and the hills of CP give him a better chance than a time trial flat course.

All that being said, unfortunately I think someone else will still be with him and outkick him at the end, so 2nd (maybe 3rd) for Hall is my guess. Hope I'm wrong though.

he is the only clean runner in the top 5.

Agreed. While Hall is capable of winning it isnt likely, and in fact it could be safe to say that 2:06:17 is the fastest time we will see from him. Not that I'm any better, just that if past caucasian performances are any indicator, he will start rnning 'generic' 2:10-2:14's from now on....

Ryan hall is going to run 2:02.xx and finish 3rd

I understand, but where do Makau and Kwambai's PRs come from? 5th will be an awful day for Hall, ala the Olympics.

Hall 5th, Makau 1st

VCP is in the Bronx. That makes your list of wildly impressive performances in Manhattan pretty short.

definite podium finish wrote:

I still say second, 20 seconds back of leader.

I want to believe you're wrong, but I'm feeling exactly the same thing. I think Hall absolutely has enough, CAN have enough, to come in second. I have a hard time believing that he can flat-out defeat that many great runners.

I agree with those who refuse to write off Ramaala. He's got one more great race in him, and he is fierce if he's having a good day. Remember that sprint to the finish where Tergat beat him by a step? Remember that crazy 4:25 mile in mile 17, or whatever it was? If he's in shape, if tomorrow is his day, Hall is in trouble.

But that's why we're all looking forward to this: Hall has consistently proven his ability to exceed expectations. Who can forget that spectacular run in the Trials? Can he own New York again? I'm not fool enough to say he can't.

There's only one thing that can be said with absolute assurance: IF Hall wins, somehow, and beats everyone in this particular field, it's the greatest day in American marathoning since Shorter in '72. Isn't that right?

I agree. Hall is past his prime. Torres will beat him.