Meb is going to beat Hall in New York

We weren't trying to "split hairs", nor did we "go bananas."

Flagpole wrote:

We aren't splitting hairs when some of us disagree with him and his contention that Meb's silver means NOTHING in terms of how fast he run. Five years is not a lifetime ago, and he has certainly had some good races since. If Ritz hadn't run a single race since 2001, and was making comeback, Flagpole wouldn't stop talking about the 3rd he got as a junior in World X-C, right?

Now sure, the longer time goes by, and the older someone gets, their past is not as significant. But 34 isn't ancient for marathoning (ask Tergat: 2:04 & WR at age 34 (at least that old); Ask Geb: 2:03 and WR at age 35 (at least that old). Ask Carlos Lopes: gold medal and long standing OR at 37, and WR at 38; ask Constantina Dita gold medal at 39.) So for Meb, his silver is not extremely long ago, and he is not extremely old. That performance still matters, it still is in indicator of what he can do when at his very best. And since he has run several good races since then, and a PR 1:01:00 very recently, then it makes his past even more relevant.

No, it's a dumb example, just as was Flagpole's comparison of Meb's silver to some guy who won the 1904 Olympic marathon. And now he brings up Frank Shorter?? MEB IS FROM THE SAME ERA AS RITZ AND HALL! 2004 was not some bygone era like 1904, or 1960, or even 1972. You guys are just being silly with your analogies and examples.

Well, Meb's silver was not more than 5 years ago, and he just ran a PR half-marathon. So I guess even under your rules, we can still talk about his silver medal as being significant to what he might do today, right? Thanks for the permission.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

cassio598 wrote:Does anyone here really think Peter Snell could go out there, train his ass off for a year, and then run 1:44? It's an extreme example, but I hope you see my point.

No, it's a dumb example

Granted, but my examples of Webb and Ramaala were much more recent and relevant. Thanks for paying attention to the whole post.

Well, Meb's silver was not more than 5 years ago, and he just ran a PR half-marathon. So I guess even under your rules, we can still talk about his silver medal as being significant to what he might do today, right? Thanks for the permission.

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that I held a serious opinion about Meb's silver and it's relevance to his performance in NY this year. I personally would be surprised if anyone besides Lel, Gharib, and Gomes dos Santos is a major factor in the race. I was actually trying to speak generally, and was really thinking about articles I've read where authors cite 7 or 8 year-old PRs as a reason for favoring an athlete, when in fact that athlete hasn't had a good performance since.

WHAT ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH???

Is Flagpole perpetually mired in 2nd grade? What normal person writes such things? Can somebody tell me?

Flagpole wrote:

1) Actually Webb CAN'T beat Ritz at 2 miles. Never has and NEVER will.

2) Webb could try the rest of his career and not be able to beat Ritz at 10,000 meters.

whooops... missed the boat on that little one, eh?

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

Well, Meb's silver was not more than 5 years ago...

Yes it was. August 29, 2004...more than 5 years ago.

Meb may very well currently be in top shape but he in no way has the talent Hall has and so, even on his best day he could not beat Hall's worst. Additionally, using HM tuneups is not the best way to gauge upcoming marathon performance, though one should note Hall also won his race.

edumacator wrote:

Half marathon does not equal marathon. Meb ran 2:09 at London. It would take a hell of a race for him to beat Hall.

_________________________________________

Were'nt people like you saying the same thing about Ritz vs. Hall in the Olympic marathon?

Hall tried to stay up with the leaders longer than he was able to while Ritz held back. Ritz maintained a pace within his abilities that day while Hall burned up running faster than his ability that day.

MarathonMind wrote:

Hall tried to stay up with the leaders longer than he was able to while Ritz held back. Ritz maintained a pace within his abilities that day while Hall burned up running faster than his ability that day.

Not true. Ritz lead Hall for the entire race. Meb on his best day ever would have that day as well.

MarathonMind wrote:

Meb may very well currently be in top shape but he in no way has the talent Hall has and so, even on his best day he could not beat Hall's worst.

I disagree...There is more to running a marathon than pure talent; or fitness for that matter. And herein lies the point I (and others) am trying to make. It takes a mature, smart, patient runner to succeed at the highest levels. Meb's 2004 silver (although > 5 years past) showed that he has what it takes between the ears to run a well executed race. In my opinion, I think is a bit more seasoned in this regard than Hall or Ritz.

For example, I think Hall could have done even better in his first marathon (London) if he had a little more patience, but he said he wanted to "taste" the lead. And wasn't it Ritz who was nearly unconscious after the Olympic trials 5k or 10k, and we later learned that he had dieted a bit leading up to the race to lose that little extra weight. Two examples of immaturity.

Recently though, Hall and Ritz are getting more seasoned, and better at racing. Hall's recent Philly run was (in my mind) perfectly executed. And Ritz's Bejing marathon was also well executed.

In any case, I will be watching Nov 1. Will we see the torch passed to the young guys, or will we see the veteran (34 years) make a comeback. Either way, I expect it to be exciting. That's why I enjoy following the sport. Unfortunately the rest of the American populace does not; but that is for another thread.

By the way, I also don't think 34 marks the downside of a marathoning career. You have to look no farther that the men's WR holder, or the reigning womens Oly champ.

Wow I guess I misremembered that race. It's like the real Hall never showed up.

Thanks for the link.

All the heat in this thread, but the really interesting thing would be to imagine, for the sake of argument, a three-man duel in the last few miles: Lel, Meb, and Hall. Would the two Americans work together? How would it play out? Play out the scenario for me. Imagine that all three runners have brought their best game to the table.........

Well, that being the case, Lel wins. Doesn't he? Or does Hall try a long push from three miles out? Who breaks whom? Do Meb and Hall decide to break away together and ensure that an American finally wins? Can Lel even be broken that way?

Envisioning that scenario, I think we also have to assume that all three runners, at that point, are in different stages of hurt, and that one of them HASN'T brought his best game but has still brought some very good game--Lel, for example.

Play out the scenario for me. Who wins THAT race?

I have trouble envisioning that scenario, because the odds of it happening are extremely slim. Lel, Kwambai, Makau, and Gharib should be the ones battling. I don't see Hall or Meb beating more than 1 or 2 of that group. I think a best case scenario sees Meb or Hall in 3rd.

Makau debuted in 2:06 and has run SEVEN 1/2 marathons faster than Hall's much ballyhooed AR and PR, and his PR is 58:52, 2nd fastest ever.

Kwambai has run 2:04 and 2:05, and 59:09.

Lel is almost unstoppable when fit, and was the dominant marathoner for a few years.

Gharib has 2 WC's golds, an Olympic silver, and a 2:05 in london last year.

And there are of course other top runners in the race too.

The 4 guys above are flat out out of Hall and Meb's league as far as recent accomplishments. Anything can happen on race day, but these guys would have to be off, and Meb or Hall have the race of their lives for them to beat a bunch of those guys.

We do know Meb is capable of such an incredible performance (silver in Olympics). Can Hall do it? we will see.

Don't you love how letsrun carries the story about Lolo Jones posing nude on its front page, yet all threads about it get deleted. Man, the moderators on this site truly are the dumbest sons of bitches ever.

Flagpole wrote:

Well, he's 34 years old. He may have a good race or two in him, but his age alone puts him on the downside of his career.

You've convinced me! Thanks.

In handicapping Hall's chances, there are, as I see it, three unknowns, and you've essentially laid them all out:

1) Will Hall significantly up his game? He did that, as we know, in spectacular fashion in Houston, way back when. People knew he was good, but not THAT good. Ditto in the Oly Trials. That's two remarkable, great-leap-forward performances that handicappers wouldn't quite have predicted. Maybe he's going to surprise us with another performance that leaves us saying "Holy s--t!" He'll certainly have to in order to match the four guys you (quite reasonably) put ahead of him

2) Will those four guys show up with their A-games in hand? Or will they turn out to have brought only an A- game, relative to their previous performances?

3) Assuming that Hall is in the mix at, say, 20 miles, will he show us something new in terms of tactics and heart? We know that he's willing to go mano a mano (London a couple of years ago); wait until he feels it to make a long move (Oly trials); bide his time and then rub out the competition (Philly last month); make an entirely unanticipated move and pay the price (Boston this spring). We also know that he's capable of not really showing up on race day (Olympics Beijing). What I don't believe we've yet seen--and please correct me if I'm wrong--is Hall triumphant after being made to extend himself beyond all reasonable limits. Here I'm thinking of that remarkable finish in NYC a few years ago where Tergat and Ramaala dueled right up the final straightaway. Nobody who saw that could doubt that Tergat is a true champion, and that Ramaala is another.

What I long to see, frankly, is Lel, or Makau, dueling it out with Hall over the final several miles. I'm one of those who admires the way that Hall's religiosity seems clearly to contribute to his performances, but I want to see what God has in store, so to speak, when the pedal is really to the medal and there's blood on the road.

I think, in other words, that Hall has even more to show us than he has shown us so far. I'm hoping to be inspired by what he does in NYC. Philly was too easy for him.

Good post. BTW it's "pedal to the metal".

kudzurunner wrote:

What I long to see, frankly, is Lel, or Makau, dueling it out with Hall over the final several miles. I'm one of those who admires the way that Hall's religiosity seems clearly to contribute to his performances, but I want to see what God has in store, so to speak, when the pedal is really to the medal and there's blood on the road.

I think god will add 30 seconds to hall's time and take a minute from lel for a hall win. There's no way it could be the other way around i agree due to the religiosity factor

Time to bump this NOW! EAT CROW FLAGPOLE!!!!!!!(and don't give me some bullshit about "I was still right that Meb's silver had no bearing on this race." BULLSHIT. For those of us saying Meb could beat Hall, it had EVERYthing to do with it. It shows what he can do in a non-rabbited, tactical, tough conditions race, and it gives Meb himself tons of confidence. 5 years ago, is not a lifetime ago, the guy is only 34. So it mattered, was proof of what the guy was capable of. You were wrong. Just say those words, "I was wrong," since you claim you can do it so easily, and no "but, but but...." BS, please.