Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

Typing under the influence? wrote:Now he's a freshman, and suddenly he is going to break the American-born collegiate 5,000m record based upon an impressive indoor race? Wishful thinking, at best.

I think you are going a bit overboard with your disbelief. He's actually had three stunning races in row indoors, after a very recent injury, and after never having raced indoors before. I agree that it will be difficult for him to break 13:15 -- but it's certainly not far-fetched to think that he could. Personally, I think 13:15 sounds just about right. He and his coach seem to think that 5,000 may be his best distance right now. If that's right, he will likely be the American Collegiate record holder very soon.

He's already equaled the ACR in the mile indoors, and 3:55 is just a couple of seconds off the 1500/mile ACRs for outdoors. So why is it so wildly optimistic to think he could run faster than McChesney did, if 5000 is indeed his best race?

One thing is for sure: if 5000 is even close to his best race, he will not be taken lightly in a championship 5000 by anyone up to and including Bernard Lagat.

I think it's crazy to not predict German under 13:20. I think he'll go 13;15 or better but I think it's stupid to not predict him even 13:20 or better. Vaughn last year ran 13:18. Does Vaughn have 3:55 speed? Was Vaughn as good as Fernandez in cross? Probably not. Fernandez is going to run sub 13:15 easily. It's only indoor and he's running these times.

Typing under the influence? wrote:

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

...but that's what people said about him breaking the 2-mile record last year.

You again? I see that you still haven't sobered-up.

He broke the HS 2-mile record as a senior. Now he's a freshman, and suddenly he is going to break the American-born collegiate 5,000m record based upon an impressive indoor race? Wishful thinking, at best. I could very easily counter by saying that his 5,000m record attempts might be closer to what you saw at last year's Footlocker nationals OR this year's NCAA D1 cross-country.

He's a great kid, but we really should avoid drowning in our own hyperbole!

German was injured for Foot Lockers and got injured at NCAAs. I know how convenient that is for those who (understandably) hate me and other gung-ho German supporters because he has never fared well against top-level American competition. So yes, there's still the question of whether he can really compete in a top-level championship race. I admit that his big-race acumen is still unproven. This thread, however, is about times, and he has proven that he can drop mind-boggling times with regularity. It may well be that he will evolve into a Webb-type runner who sets records but can't win medals. But not winning medals can't be used as an argument against setting records. This thread is about times. He's gonna run fast.

OVER, lucky to be within 30 seconds of that... remember what happened last time you all talked up German... he choked and didnt even make it to the race... (He was "injured" so injured he didnt have to skip indoor?)

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

I know how convenient that is for those who (understandably) hate me and other gung-ho German supporters...

Once again, don't get carried away. I don't *hate* anybody, and certainly not enthusiastic Fernandez supporters. However, I don't mind throwing in a healthy dose of reality, either!

I'm an ex-CIF distance runner myself, so I am definitely rooting for this young man to succeed. But piling on these enormous expectations is a bit ridiculous. There is no question that he is an amazing talent, but expecting him to break the American-born Collegiate Record in the 5,000m as a true freshman is simply taking it too far.

And I understand where you're coming from. But I still think anyone who doubts the crazy fast times I predict doesn't really understand how good German is. For those people, they get a little closer to understanding with each race. He ran 3:56, skeptics didn't think he'd break Rupp's junior record of 13:37. He ran 7:47 and 23:20 and the marker was lowered to 13:25-13:30 or so. After his 3:55, we're now discussing over/under 13:15-20. Those who have known his talent all along were already predicting that he'd run 13:10 as a freshman, last summer. The more he races, the more that time seems within German's capabilities.

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

But I still think anyone who doubts the crazy fast times I predict doesn't really understand how good German is.

I ran against Jeff Nelson during his senior year, so I probably have a better perspective than most people regarding how good this kid really is. On the other hand, I'm also realistic. I'm sorry, but an outdoor 5,000m is a far cry from an indoor mile. Call me crazy, but let's see how he actually does in an outdoor 5k before we declare that he is ALREADY the best collegiate 5,000m in history.

I ran against Jeff Nelson during his senior year, so I probably have a better perspective than most people regarding how good this kid really is. On the other hand, I\'m also realistic. I\'m sorry, but an outdoor 5,000m is a far cry from an indoor mile. Call me crazy, but let\'s see how he actually does in an outdoor 5k before we declare that he is ALREADY the best collegiate 5,000m in history.

Thank you. Still though, I''d say it's damn close to even money. Sure, this race was an indoor mile, but he ran that 3:55 totally alone, wire to wire. He also stomped all over the Junior nationals field (including two top 7 ncaa finishers) and ran a 7:47 3k.

I\'m not a track scholar, this just all spells bad ass to me. I\'m done doubting him, but I also have a lot of respect for the times people are mentioning.

Poor comparison. Jeff Nelson is no where near German Fernandez.

I think its the people with the most success who are having the most difficult time accepting German's dominance of the sport. I think successful runners take it as an insult. Like... "Do you have any idea how fast sub 13:30 is? I only ran a 13:45 and I WAS GREAT!!!". These people are afraid that the success of one individual will make them appear inferior. Many will lose any and all self-esteem.

So my response would be: Take a step down from your thrown of American mediocrity. Yes sub 9 minutes for a two mile in high school is still good. And breaking 14 minutes is no small feat. You can feel good about what you have accomplished. But German... German is on a completely different level. The truth is German is as good as people are suggesting and if America ever wants to compete with the Africans we need to accept and appreciate the talent we have.

Ka800 wrote:

no 13:20 if by him self the 12:55 iam thinking of golden league with that that means average of 2:35 /1km

thatis 1km (2:35) 2km (5:10) 3km(7:45) 4km(10:20)and 5km(12:55) he already has the 3k at 7:48 in feb so in golden league he needs not to cook the pace just follow the flow with the lead pace up to 4000m then he can do what ever he wants

I don't see him hanging up front with the Africans at this stage of his career. What I mean is this, if Rupp can't keep up with the insane surges of a top level Kenyan, etc in a Golden League type race in a 5K or 10K, what makes you think German can?

Let's see how it unfolds this season. You guys have too much time on your hands.

Go get a part time job

the rocket wrote:

Poor comparison. Jeff Nelson is no where near German Fernandez.

If you are under 40, you aren't even remotely qualified to make an authoritative comparison between the two of them. Judging by your immature behavior and your outlandish superlatives favoring Fernandez, it's a safe bet that you are.

nexis151 wrote:

Fernandez is exactly what America needs and has needed since the days of Steve Prefontaine. We have waited and waited and waited for a running savior to come along that has the ability to climb into the upper echelon of T&F that Fernandez has. I put nothing past this kid. Unless he is told otherwise by Dave Smith, Fernandez plays for keeps. He has already moved past our collegiate system in a manner of months. There are no race strategies against him now. He runs, he kicks ass. Period. He doesnt talk about tactics or times or other competitors, he just puts that pedal down and whoosh! We are seeing just the beginning of this kids potential. I would also be willing to bet $1000 that Fernandez could run 27:45 for a 10k. No doubt in my mind. Things are looking bright.

Finally a smart man!

I am under 40. And I apologize for my hasty comparison. One thing I will say (based on what I have read about Jeff Nelson) is that German seems to be far more naturally talented. When Jeff Nelson ran 8:36 for 2 miles he was training very hard. He probably was doubling German's mileage at the time. It seems to me like German just sucks down air in the same way the high mileage runners of the past (and current) did. Only German seemed to have started with an incredible aerobic ability which puts him leagues above the competition.

So in conclusion: I still feel the comparison is poor, but not because of their level of success (because they seem to be pretty similar). I feel the comparison is poor, because German seems far more gifted than Jeff Nelson from what I can gather.

After reading this article about Jeff Nelson, I now realize how wrong my last few posts have been. Jeff Nelson was an animal.

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats/gods1/nelson.htm

The article kind of confirms that German made a good decision going to OK state if he's anything like Jeff Nelson. I think if German chose Oregon he may not be running right now. OK State has been able to keep him calm.

the rocket wrote:

...based on what I have read about Jeff Nelson...

...I feel the comparison is poor, because German seems far more gifted than Jeff Nelson from what I can gather.

No offense, but what you have read simply isn't enough to pass judgment. Don't get me wrong, though. I truly believe that German is a remarkable talent, and I hope that he succeeds. However, long before there were throngs of HS distance running groupies on DyeStat or even a Footlocker/Kinney national XC meet, I was able to witness first-hand how Jeff Nelson was an amazing young talent. Don't sell him short based upon a second or third-hand historical perspective. His 2-mile record stood for almost 30 years!

I know it sounds crazy, but his aerobic capacity has yet to be truly proven. Yes he ran 3:55 and 7:47, but the 5K takes a certain kind of aerobics/strength.

Take a look at guys like Kevin Sullivan (Can) who ran so fast (mile)at same age, Bob Kennedy, etc. Many of those phenom milers 3K types never broke 13:15 ever much less as a Frosh. As talented as BK it took him a while also.

No doubt GF is super talented and will eventually go < 13:15, but as a frosh I believe its doubtful. Give him time. It may even be better in the long run if he "only" runs around 13:25 this year.

I would hate to see evryone disappointed if he runs something like 13:27 this year.

Way under. People just need to realize that how ever good you think German is, he'll be way better than that by the next season. It's insane to see how far he's improved from high school to his freshman XC season and then from the injury to now - ridiculous leaps. He is so good that he can run a 3000m with a 2:30 last km two hours after a 3:55 and its just a 'nothing out of the ordinary' effort for him now. I believe that German has 3:53 and 7:38 type fitness right now which is nuts. Given a healthy block of training from this point on until outdoors and just imagine how much he'll improve. He bounced back from an achilles injury twice - setting the two mile record in high school and running the times he is now as well. We haven't had a chance to see what German runs when he can put back to back seasons of healthy training together. I really don't think that 13:00 is out of reach for him given the opportunity because he is that good. Don't expect him to progress like past runners because he is a first for distance runners of the Western world.

if Fernandez does go under 13:15, it will be only because he was trying to beat Galen Rupp, who will break the world record and make Fernandez cry