He won the 8k at US XC Jrs. He has run a very fast 1600 but also definitely has the distance, and his coach believes he can run 13:18 at the end of this track season.
He won the 8k at US XC Jrs. He has run a very fast 1600 but also definitely has the distance, and his coach believes he can run 13:18 at the end of this track season.
To beat Rupp would require German to drop 5 VDOTs, which experts believe to be impossible in such a short amount of time for such an advanced runner. To put this in perspective, realize that Dr. Jack Daniels states in his masterpiee that even a young and rapidly improving runner should never expect to advance a full VDOT level any sooner than 6 weeks at a time. A better question might be "Can German be a serious threat to win top 5 Cross Country?" Better luck next time...
scientific mumbo jumbo
J.R. wrote:
I thought German would have a good chance to be in the top 10 at the NCAA cross championships this fall, but that was before seeing this video of OSU's Sunday run the day after the Jamboree 8k. Now I feel German will be a strong contender for the Championship. I'm rooting for German and OSU all the way.
http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234133/74797-oklahoma-state-sunday-run
Boy, from that video, Stillwater looks like a horrible place to train. ;)
Where is out concrete guy when we need him?
CoachB wrote:
J.R. wrote:I thought German would have a good chance to be in the top 10 at the NCAA cross championships this fall, but that was before seeing this video of OSU's Sunday run the day after the Jamboree 8k. Now I feel German will be a strong contender for the Championship. I'm rooting for German and OSU all the way.
http://www.flotrack.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234133/74797-oklahoma-state-sunday-runBoy, from that video, Stillwater looks like a horrible place to train. ;)
Where is out concrete guy when we need him?
i like how the Kenyans are running on the grass in pants and shirts while the americans are on the road with only shorty shorts
Maybe Rupp won't be in peak form... that's the basis for the argument.
the kid is pretty good but there is no way he is going to win. on top of chelanga you are all forgeting about the man who was out kicked last year by mcdougal, Rupp. Rupp has a pretty impressive track record as well...i mean 2nd last year, the olympic 10k just to name a couple. so i would say its a far shot for German to win, but to be all-american not to far fetched. we'll get to see an all out German at pre-nats this upcoming friday
It's hard to predict after seeing just once race. Unless he shows more killer instinct and wins one of the next big races, I'd say winning is still a long shot. But I could see him doing as well as third.
I think what's more exciting is that the entire freshmen group might be the best ever in the NCAA. Let's not even count the Kenyans, but focus on Americans, as this is really about the future of American distance running in the next several years. There's a group of at least 25 runners who have shown potential between last year's Footlocker championships and these early season meets, to be All Americans.
Obviously not all of them will even make it to nationals this season, but in an early thread I predicted a dozen will make the top 100, and 5 will make the top 30. Take the score of the top 5 freshmen and they might be close to beating Oregon or whoever wins nationals. More here:
Has Fout run yet this season? I heard Derrick and Puskedra ran well.
Fout- 24:20
Derrick- 24:18
Puskedra- 24:06
It's hard to compare times on different courses. Fout ran so-so, but these guys seem to be running better:
Colby Lowe, Ok State, 24:20, (Cowboy Jamboree-7th)
Ben Johnson, Stanford, 24:55 (Stanford Invite-15th)
Eric Fernandez, Arkansas, 25:00 (Stanford Invite-18th)
Will have a better idea after another meet or two. See more info in the thread I linked to above.
On a course that his been the site of the California State Meet for over 25 years now, and has been run countless other times holding major competitions, this is proof that German Fernandez is quite possibly the greatest High School Cross Country runner ever!
Woodward Park
All-Time Boys List
1. German Fernandez (Riverbank-SJS) 14:24 2007 State Meet
2. Marc Davis (San Diego) 1986 14:38
3. Eric Reynolds (Camarillo) 1982 14:39
3. Bryan Dameworth (Agoura) 1989 14:39
5. Jay Marden (Mission San Jose, Fremont) 14:40
6. Louie Quintana (Arroyo Grande) 1990 14:47
7. Tom Ansberry (Santa Rita, Tucson, Az) 1980 14:49
7. Calvin Gaziano (Castro Valley) 1984 14:49
9. Ryan Hall (Big Bear) 2000 14:50
10. Jon Butler (Edison, Huntington Beach) 1980 14:52
11. Dan Mazo (South, Eugene, Oregon) 1980 14:53
11. Matthew Davis (Mead, Spokane, Wa) 1993 14:53
13. Mark Mastalir (Jesuit, Sacramento) 1985 14:54
13. Tracy Garrison (Klamath Falls, Or) 1983 14:54
15. Chris Caldwell (Tucson, Az) 1982 14:55
15. Mark Dani (Valhalla, El Cajon) 14:55
17. Francis O'Neill (San Pasqual, Escondido) 14:56
18. Jim Ortiz (Barstow) 1982 14:57
18. Brad Hudson (South, Eugene, Or) 1982 14:57
18. Theo Martin (Page, Az) 1992 14:57
18. Matt Farley (Jesuit, Sacramento) 1993 14:57
22. Jesus Gutierrez (Pasadena) 1982 14:58
22. Jason Balkman (San Jose) 1994 14:58
Only 22 under 15:00, only 9 under 14:50, and only 4 under 14:40... a 14:24 on such a course is unreal.
If German continued this pace for an 8km he would end up with a time of 23:02. So even if he slowed down 44 seconds over the final 3km he would still have beaten Aron Rono's (a top 5 Collegiate runner for sure) 8km course record of 23:47!
Can German win? Yes!
Will German win? We'll have to wait and see.
We miss you Pre wrote:
To beat Rupp would require German to drop 5 VDOTs, which experts believe to be impossible in such a short amount of time for such an advanced runner. To put this in perspective, realize that Dr. Jack Daniels states in his masterpiee that even a young and rapidly improving runner should never expect to advance a full VDOT level any sooner than 6 weeks at a time. A better question might be "Can German be a serious threat to win top 5 Cross Country?" Better luck next time...
And how would Daniel's explain the kid going from a 9:08 PR in the 3200m to an 8:32 PR in one year?...
Don't give me that psuedo-VDot mumbo jumbo. It's not like you can accurately tell what his VDOT is anyways. If anything Daniel's might say that it is unlikely for GF to beat Rupp (which everyone should agree with if they watched the Olympic Trials), but I doubt he would say that it was impossible.
Rupp could make the U.S. world cross senior team; he is not going to lose to an NCAA freshmam. What Kennedy did as a freshman is more difficult to accomplish today. Finishing top 5 is certainly possible, but top 10 is more likely.
GERMAN OO HAHAHA
Withrow made the US Senior World Cross team as a freshman I think...
After seeing him race @ the Jamboree he looks like he didn't give it his all. seeing him finish shows he's got a lot more in him.
but i don't think this is the year we see another Bob Kennedy moment, but i can see him winning NCAA Nats later on.
if he gets a top 5 finish this year at Nats...look out for him to win next year.
I'm cheering for German over those other guys like Puskedra or Derrick or whoever because it is amazing how far he is come given the background he comes from.. a pretty ghetto town, that area having one of the highest crime rates in the nation (the whole Modesto/Stanislaus county area). Unlike certain other kids who's parents can pay 15-20k+ a year at certain schools (or coming from a much, much more privileged background). Go German!
YESSS wrote:
I'm cheering for German over those other guys like Puskedra or Derrick or whoever because it is amazing how far he is come given the background he comes from.. a pretty ghetto town, that area having one of the highest crime rates in the nation (the whole Modesto/Stanislaus county area). Unlike certain other kids who's parents can pay 15-20k+ a year at certain schools (or coming from a much, much more privileged background). Go German!
Time to dissect. I'm assuming you mean he's better because of his character, rather than his talent. This much is obvious in the context of your post. However, what does his background have to do with his character? For all you know, he could be a complete douche bag, arrogant, condescending, etc. I don't know if he is, but neither do you.
You also probably don't know Derrick or Puskedra or their character, so they could be the nicest people in the world. So basically, you're rooting for him on the false presumption that his humble background has humbled him, which it might have or might not have. This is incredibly stupid. Your logic is gaping with holes, not withstanding the fact that you know nothing of his work ethic either.
All in all, terrible post.
the rocket wrote:
We miss you Pre wrote:To beat Rupp would require German to drop 5 VDOTs, which experts believe to be impossible in such a short amount of time for such an advanced runner. To put this in perspective, realize that Dr. Jack Daniels states in his masterpiee that even a young and rapidly improving runner should never expect to advance a full VDOT level any sooner than 6 weeks at a time. A better question might be "Can German be a serious threat to win top 5 Cross Country?" Better luck next time...
And how would Daniel's explain the kid going from a 9:08 PR in the 3200m to an 8:32 PR in one year?...
That's a little less than 6 VDOTs in about 52 weeks. Daniels believes such improvement would require at least 36 weeks. So Daniels would find going from 9:08 to 8:32 to be a fairly reasonable improvement, though still quite impressive. He's gonna have to wait until at least track season to beat Rupp though. It's just too soon. Better luck next time...