How good is Fernandez's double

Jungleroy59 wrote:

Ryun was the most incredible high school runner in any event, ever, period. Webb was a once-a-generation type. This young man just had the best American 1 and 2 mile double ever. I'm not comparing him to anyone else but myself. My best double in HS was 4:35/10:08.

I did a 4:28/9:52, and I thought that was pretty good. Can't imagine doing what this guy just did.

I don't think Galen Rupp or Josh McDougal could even equal German's double.

splits wrote:

What makes the performance even more impressive is the fact his splits were extremely even in both races (30's in the 1600 and 32's in the 3200).

isn't even splits the easiest way to do something???

The point in all of this is, of course, that only a handful of preps in history could run EITHER the 4:00.23 for 1600 or the 8:34 for 3200. Not both. Personally. I doubt Webb was ready to go 8:34, especially not solo and mere hours after a 4:00. In fact, only one prep has run a faster equivalent than 8:34 and not by much in a race WITH competition. Fernandez may not be capable of approaching Webb/Ryan type times in the mile, but I don't think it is much of a stretch to presume this kid could have beaten wither of them at the two-mile and above, along with Ritz, Rupp, etc. I can only hope he buries the two-mile record and breaks Rupp's record in the 5000 to put this all to rest.

sc runner wrote:

I don't think Galen Rupp or Josh McDougal could even equal German's double.

No, they could. For them, the 4:01 is slightly sub-maximal and the 3200 in 8:37 is around 5k pace. It would be a tough workout, but either of them could do it.

Instead of having pros race the high school distances, why not have Fernandez race the pros? ie, put him in a paced race and try to get him in the low 13:30s. Then he could run in the Oly Trials. Would be cool to see what he could do, and a fun chance for him to gain experience so he's ready for 2012.

sc runner wrote:

I don't think Galen Rupp or Josh McDougal could even equal German's double.

Agreed but I can't say that for sure about Jim Ryun or Alan Webb.

I think Alan Webb in hus late may or June form his senior year had a decent shot of doing that, maybe a second or two faster in the 1600 and a few seconds slower in the 3200.

Ryun, given modern spikes and tracks I am confident could have run a similar double.

Jtupper - if you are out there - what do think Ryun's chances would have been of covering a double like that given modern equipment.

Does anyone know his 800/400 times?

It seemed from the video he is a real strength runner. Very consistent pacing.

ryun ran 8:25 two mile his freshman year of college and 3:55 mile as a senior in high school. he also ran something like 3:58 in a high school only race. it's conceivable that he could have done this. webb, with his 3:53, was clearly ready for well under 8:30. he ran 8:45 during indoors, easily. so, I think that webb could have done this. But no one else in American hs could ever have come close to it.

I am not disagreeing that McDougal and Rupp could possibly do this double all alone - but it would be a very good effort. 834 is about 13:30 pace (4:17 pace plus 40 seconds arbitrarily - probably closer to 13:25) so the 8:34 is in their 5K 'pace'.

But to say 4:01 is 'sub-maximal' is a stretch. Hasn't McDougal run 3:59 as a PR and Rupp still hasn't broken 4. So isn't 4:01 right at max effort. You were trying to hint that it wouldn't be that tough for them, but I'm pretty sure going out and running 4:01 doesn't happen every time out.

Again, I'm sure they could complete this double with a 2 hour break, but to say 4:01 is 'sub-maximal' is crazy - even the 834 is a stretch for their 5k 'pace'. If you take it and extrapolate it over 5,000m then it comes out to 13:23.13 - not exactly a stroll in the park for 5,000m pace for either of them. They are awesome athletes, but German's performance was pretty impressive in itself.

No way Rupp could do that right now solo. Just check out his string of 4:03 miles with strong competition. This isn't saying that German can beat Rupp in a 5k right now, but don't minimize German's performance.

I was one of the German sceptics, but that double was amazing and shut me up pretty quickly. I will never say a bad thing against this kid again.

Sagarin wrote:

The point in all of this is, of course, that only a handful of preps in history could run EITHER the 4:00.23 for 1600 or the 8:34 for 3200. Not both. Personally. I doubt Webb was ready to go 8:34, especially not solo and mere hours after a 4:00. In fact, only one prep has run a faster equivalent than 8:34 and not by much in a race WITH competition. Fernandez may not be capable of approaching Webb/Ryan type times in the mile, but I don't think it is much of a stretch to presume this kid could have beaten wither of them at the two-mile and above, along with Ritz, Rupp, etc. I can only hope he buries the two-mile record and breaks Rupp's record in the 5000 to put this all to rest.

The other thing is, if this kid was only running 60 miles per week, than the times are even more eye-popping. Oh, sure, an 8:34 is an 8:34 no matter how you get there, but Ryun was known to run 110 miles per week, Rupp up to 100 I believe, and Ritz also up there in the 90s. Jeff Nelson topped out at 142 before his senior campaign and we all know what Lindgren did. Now, maybe Fernandez is injury prone, but assuming he could adapt to a higher level of aerobic conditioning, there's no telling what this kid can do.

I've always been skeptical about the kids who run sub 9:00 or close off of 100+ mile weeks in high school, especially in California. Very few of them go on to do much even in college. But with the possible exception of Webb, this kid may have the most raw talent of any prep ever (not that I'm comparing him to either, but Brent Vaughn is another kid that comes to mind -- 8:45 off of 40ish miles per week or something like that). And Webb had a swimming background. I don't know about Fernandez.

Apparently, the kid's got distance potential too.

He ran a 4:05 mile on Saturday, then, the following day, hopped in to a half marathon where he helped pace his girlfriend for her 10k race. After the 10k and half diverge, he apparently didn't like getting passed so much, so he turned up the heat to clock a 1:09:45 for the win...not too shabby for a high schooler! Found this blurb:

"I had the opportunity to run with German in the above half marathon. It was at the Davis Stampede in February, and I was running as a tune up for the LA Marathon the following month. My goal was to win the race, and run at or slightly below goal Marathon pace (1:11-1:12). I went out slow, and at two miles into the race was 30-40 seconds behind the leaders. I decided it was time to move and 1:12 wasn't going to win, so I dropped my pace from 5:35 to about 5:15 pace. On my way up to the leaders, I passed a duo of young high school runners, and one of them (Fernandez) ended up latching on to me at around 2-1/2 miles.

At the four mile mark, we had just clocked a 5:17 or so, and he asks me what pace I'm trying to run. I said "5:20's", and when I asked him, he replied with "6 minute pace". I figured I'd drop him in another mile or two, and I'd continue on up to the leaders. Around the 6 mile I took notice of this kid's form and toughness, and thought to myself "I have no idea who this kid is, but he's for real and may hang with me for the whole race."

We continued running between 5:13-5:20 pace for the next several miles. At a couple different points he fell off by about 5 meters, but quickly surged back up on my shoulder. We managed to catch second place by mile 8, but still trailed the leader by a steady 15 seconds at the 9 mile. I surged hard at 9, with Fernandez on my shoulder, and we managed to catch the leader just after the 11 mile mark. It should be noted that as we passed by the 11 mile marker, I was asked by Fernandez how long the race was.

From there it was a three man race all the way into the last quarter mile, with German powering away from myself and the 3rd place finisher, and a mere 3 seconds separating the three of us. I was happy to PR after the race, but a little shocked because I had just lost to a 16 year old. I wondered how many High Schoolers in the country could run that fast for a half marathon right now? Ten? Five? All I could do was tip my hat and realize that I had just been beaten by someone great. I really think if I had been running 1:07 pace that he would have run a 1:07 and out-kicked me.

It was only afterwards that I found out he was a state champion as a Soph. etc. At least now I can say I lost to the California XC record holder at Woodward

--Alex Cardiasmenos"

jonesy. wrote:

ryun ran 8:25 two mile his freshman year of college and 3:55 mile as a senior in high school. he also ran something like 3:58 in a high school only race. it's conceivable that he could have done this. webb, with his 3:53, was clearly ready for well under 8:30. he ran 8:45 during indoors, easily. so, I think that webb could have done this. But no one else in American hs could ever have come close to it.

You may be right, but I have to disagree a bit. Ritz crushed Webb in cross, beat him by 20 or 30 seconds, but "only" ran 8:41. And while Webb wasn't a cross specialist and his mile suggests that he had the talent, even back then, to run 8:30, I doubt he had the endurance to do it. Especially not after a 4:00 1600 effort two hours before. It is what it is. Webb was an 8:45 guy in high school and Fernandez is an 8:34 guy, until proven otherwise. Indoor versus at the back end of a double... cancel each other out.

Back in the 70s a college guy did this double a little bit faster, although distributed a little differently, then tacked 200m more on to run 13:05 5000. College guys running 5000s under 13:20 are running pretty close to this pace as well; they are not common but less rare then hen's teeth.

You point is taken though, this is a hard double for a good college runner and for a HS runner it is the best by far (as is clear from malmo's compilation).

The fact that we would really think of only Ryun and Webb as those capable of something like this (although both were faster and not so great long, especially Ryun who had a pretty good 800 at the time and a WR later).

I hope that this is not the end of the revival of HS distance running, but the afternoon might have highlighted a return to the top with the 4?33/9:52x2/4:00/8:34.

Yes and that was when he was a sophomore who hadn't run CC as a frosh, hadn't done winter base and hadn't run any summer base training (because he was going to play soccer instead) prior to his soph year either. He ran that 1/2 off of one track season and one cross country season of 35 mpw. He had actually decided to start building base and was up to about 50 mpw (mostly easy running) at that point (feb 2006).

Feb 2007 was the 1/2 Marathon that German won

how many college athletes could pull this double off? both of which were run by himself.

Ranking by IAAF Scoring Table

1. 2119 (12:38.9) 4:01.7 & 8:37.2 Fernandez 2008

2. 2034 (12:53.6) 4:02.6 & 8:51.0 Kimball 1974

3. 2010 (12:53.1) 8:46.5 & 4:06.6 Kimball 1974

4. 1983 (12:55.1) 8:46.0 & 4:09.1 Sage 2000

5. 1976 (12:57.1) 8:48.6 & 4:08.5 Virgin 1973

6. 1971 (12:57.3) 8:48.2 & 4:09.1 Fernandez 2008

7. 1967 (12:54.8) 8:42.6 & 4:12.2 Virgin 1973

8. 1949 (12:58.4) 8:46.6 & 4:11.8 Virgin 1973