My Alan Webb predictions for this season

Knocks up Julia Rudd.

AW will make racing with a neck beard and a mullet seem like the sweetest thing since Fam's Jesus style and Sell's fumanchu.

Gold, the time pointless... he learned how to kick last season, now he's a contender instead of boy-wonder....

Times:

3:28.xx (3:27.xx if they go crazy) 1500m in Olympic build-up

I think this year, if his training goes right and it should because they've had years to really nail down what gets him ready exactly as he needs to be, Webb has a 50% chance at winning gold. He seems to planning right so far. He's probably building tons of strength like he did in the past(during the 'off-season') and then crank out some serious times come july/august(whenever the goddamn olympics are). I think last year they gave him too much time to maintain really top form or maybe just zapped all his good energy a little too soon with going for the AR. It was a great season for him by all means, made it to the final, got whatever place outside the top 3, old news, but I think this summer will be different, and this is the first time I've said that about him. My predictions:

800m: 1:43.6 - 1:44.3

1500m: 3:30.00 - 3:31.00

mile: 3:47.5 - 3:50.00

It isn't crucial for him to run PR's. If he really cares about gold more than anything, nothing else matters, just being ready to be the best on the day of the 1500m final. Forget trying to break records and get the gold, and I think that is what he's going to do because 4.5 years from now he will probably not be as fast. I could see him maybe trying for the 1500m AR if he didn't have to schedule an extra race or anything like that. In 2004 he realized how tough championship races at the world level can be, in 2005 he realized what it can take to make it to the final, in 2006 he took some time off, and in 2007 he learned how important each heat is setting one up for the next race(how much energy did he have to extend in the 2nd heat last year when he was at the back of the pack with 300m to go?- think that took any wind out of his sails going in to the final?).

Top contenders:

Rashid Ramzi

Bernard Lagat

Alan Webb(at best this season, I could see him doing 1:43.5, 3:29.5, and 3:46.5 but not likely this year)

Asbel Kiprop

Daniel K. Komen

why wouldn't he run PRs this year?? If he's a year stronger and stays healthy, there are going to be races that are set up to be fast along the way to Bejing. I can't wait to see it.

Everything yo said is true, which is why Webb will medal in the 1500.

Kiprop's dad David Kebenei ran a sub 4 mile 1982 ?

Is this rare father/son sub 4

6th at the olympics

Hmmm... have you heard of any American run under 13:00 since Kennedy? Thrrrp NO! The closest runner to come to that would be the under rated Adam Goucher. Now I'm not saying he is going to go under 13:00 this Olympics, but I do bet he'll run the 5k and be the 1st American to cross the finish line, Webb is a 1500/mile runner, plain and simple. Lagat is on the juice.

Please enlighten me if I am wrong about the whole no American going sub 13:00 since Kennedy

BURGER wrote:

Hmmm... have you heard of any American run under 13:00 since Kennedy? Thrrrp NO! The closest runner to come to that would be the under rated Adam Goucher. Now I'm not saying he is going to go under 13:00 this Olympics, but I do bet he'll run the 5k and be the 1st American to cross the finish line, Webb is a 1500/mile runner, plain and simple. Lagat is on the juice.

Please enlighten me if I am wrong about the whole no American going sub 13:00 since Kennedy

Lagat has, but let's not start this debate again.

Teg's been close the last 2 seasons - 13:07 and 13:04, closer than Goucher, Webb, Broe, Fam...

BURGER wrote:

Hmmm... have you heard of any American run under 13:00 since Kennedy? Thrrrp NO! The closest runner to come to that would be the under rated Adam Goucher. Now I'm not saying he is going to go under 13:00 this Olympics, but I do bet he'll run the 5k and be the 1st American to cross the finish line, Webb is a 1500/mile runner, plain and simple. Lagat is on the juice.

Please enlighten me if I am wrong about the whole no American going sub 13:00 since Kennedy

1. Lagat ran 12:59 as an American

2. Goucher's PR is 13:10, Teg's PR is 13:04

your lack of running knowledge means you have no credibility

Double teamed!!!

haha yeeea, Yea I got served for sure! And knowing is half the battle JI Joooooooe

'GI' I have butter fingers too it seems. I'm worthless

Sagarin wrote:

The only way Webb medals is if he moves up to 5000 and drops the hammer over the last mile and especially the last 800 in a tactical race. It doesn't matter that he may end up being the fastest miler in the world yet again this year. He will lose a tactical mile every time to the guys with pure speed.

After watching these videos I can't say I agree. Remember Webb has gone sub-1:44, the speed is there:

BURGER wrote:Hmmm... have you heard of any American run under 13:00 since Kennedy? Thrrrp NO!

Had you been correct, I would have said that you could very possibly (soon) add it to the growing list of things that no American had done before Alan Webb.

Of course, there are several guys who could break the 5000m AR in the near future. Fifteen Americans have run 13:20.x or better in the past two seasons. Webb, Lagat, and Teg are all capable of doing it next time they peak. Most of the other 12 guys could do it within two or three years if they keep making the kinds of strides they've made the past couple of years. Being old, Goucher's window is closing fast.

Alan won't improve in the 800m. He run any competitive 5000m races and certainly won't break the American Record in that. 1500m sounds like a good guess and I don't see any reason for him to run the mile.

Alan Webb gold in Beijing.

1:43.4

3:29.1

3:45.8 if he runs it

12:57.2 if he runs it

kartelite wrote:After watching these videos I can't say I agree. Remember Webb has gone sub-1:44, the speed is there:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tIvGxbLlCUhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5i_xNDhOaMhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BZvfkk7-5Y&feature=related

#1 and #3 were real breakthroughs and fantastic finishes. #2 was less impressive to me. Lagat was obviously running very tired. Lagat coming back from a 5000 in less than an hour to run as well as he did should have tipped us all off about what was to come. That was an awesome double.

Manzano had a tremendous race, too. Seeing what the 2007 breakthrough guys do this year will be almost as interesting as following the progression of the top tier. I'm thinking of Manzano, Lomong, Solinsky, Rupp, and Symmonds, in particular.