Olympic Marathon Trials - Top-10 Predicted Order of Finish

Rexing...classic! He will do it barefoot, backwards, and fighting a bear, too.

Seriously, I am glad to see some of you think Josh Cox will be in the top 10. I am also glad that he was able to get a qualifying time in a race. No matter how much I like the guy, it wouldn't have been a good PR move to petition into the trials as was reported on previous threads.

Here's my top 10:

1. Hall

2. Abdirahman

3. Keflezighi

4. Sell

5. Culpepper

6. Gilmore

7. Cox

8. Ritzenhein

9. Verran

10. Jurcevich

DNF: KK (he will get blisters or something at mile 21 while running in 5th place)

Khannouchi finishing the race is a wet dream, this will simply not happen - his foot is 75% at best as of today! Further Ritz is running for the money he was paid to run the half marathon in the summer as is Abdi, so lets pick real marathoners here! By the way, all you idiots that think that Jurcevich and Verran or even Cox are top ten, this is 2007 not 2004 and the field outclasses these three middle of the elite pack runners!

1. Culpepper (repeat winner)

2. Mebrahton K. (repeat runner up)

3. Hall (no experience on tough courses, just one, London)

4. Lemkuhle

5. Abdi Top Rahmin

6. Browne

7. Gilmore

8. Sell

9 Scott Larson (third top 10)

10. Cox, Verran, or Jurcevich have as good a chance as the Chumps from Austin who ran 40k in 2006 and think they ran a marathon, oh, that was Jurcevich too!

1. Abdi

2. Hall

3. Ritz

4. Meb

5. Sell

6. Khannouchi

7. Culpepper

8. Browne

9. Gilmore

10. Shay

Not much of a top 10 expert...Larson isn't running.

Meb

Hall

Abdi

Sell

Culpepper

Gilmore

Carney

Ritz

Shay

Nucci

Leslie

Cabada

Abdi

Meb

Culpepper

Hall

Sell

Gilmore

Riz

Shay

Hall

Abdi

Gilmore (thats right, I said it)

Culpepper

Meb

Cox

Ritz

Bizuneh

Sell

Browne

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this on this thread already, I don't think anyone has, but I've seen a lot of people placing Ritzenhein a little further down the list (6th-10th), and I think there are a couple things to consider concerning his recent training and how that will tremendously affect his performance in New York a second time around:

In an interview he recently did with RW, he said that one thing he has changed is the number of hard long runs. Before(last year when he trained for the NY marathon) he did 5 runs at 14-16 miles or 16-18 miles at tempo pace- probably somewhat closer to marathon pace. This year, he's done 8 runs at 22-24 miles all within 5% of marathon race pace. If you think about it, that's kind of incredible. Certainly risky, but incredible if he's able to recover from that kind of training, because, even though those training sessions are 2-4 miles short of the full burrito, that's a lot of fuel he's burning, and I wonder if his body can hold up to training like that for long.

However, he has been doing all his training at sea level(whatever Eugene's altitude is) on 'soft' surfaces, with the benefit of having technology-aiding devices like that anti-gravity treadmill he trained on before he took it to Buster and the Healthy Kidney 10k course record back in the spring. I think that also because he is not training at the stresses of altitude anymore we will see a more general improvement in Ritzenhein's consistency and performances. I would love to see him go stride for stride with Hall and Abdi at the front, and I think there's a good possibility that just might happen. I know history tells us that Ritzenhein is more than likely not going to finish in the top 3, but new history is always being made.

Here's a quote from the interview:

How's the training different from last year?

DR: It's good. I'm feeling great. Last year in Boulder I got in maybe 4 or 5 long runs around 20 miles. This year in Eugene, I've done 8 in the 22 to 24 range. And we've done them maybe within 5 percent of race pace. That's something you could never do at altitude. I'm hoping the long runs are building my storage tanks, so I can build up bigger energy supplies in my body.

When you do that many long, hard runs, it can be hard to hold up. You have to be careful in between. That's what we've been doing. I take three very easy days between the long runs. My weekly mileage has been a little lower than we thought it would be, but when you're doing 40 miles at close to race pace, you need to be very smart with your easy days. Overall, I've done a lot of good work the last 10 to 12 weeks.

Actually, what Ritz said is that last year he did 4-5 runs of about 20 miles. Regardless, I'm shocked (why not be hyperbolic in a prediction thread--and indeed it's probably mandatory) that I'm still the only sane person picking Ritz to win (there is one other, but since he is picking Marzuki Stevens [best is 2:20] for top five, I disqualify him on the grounds that he's insane). In his only marathon Ritz completely exploded, yet still ran 2:14 in NY, which is worth at least 2:12 in Chicago. I'm betting he won't explode this time and will be in 2:08 shape, which I think will be good enough to win.

Here is my guess:

1. Abdi

2. Hall

3. Meb

4. Culpepper

5. Browne

6. Sell

7. Lemkuhle

8. Gilmore

9. Josh Cox

10. Verran

Ritz, KK--DNF

Right now it is hard to argue that Abdi is the class of the field. His recent half-thon and also he solid races at 10k worlds shows he is fit. Hall has not race anything in a long time but I got a good feeling about his chances. Meb is not 100% but I think his experience in NYC and past Marathons will help him gut out a third. Culp is a vet and should run solid and Dan Browne has run some good races, namely the New Haven 20k. Assuming the weather is ok, this should be our top ten. If it gets really hot our African born contigent should thrive (especially Abdi). However, if it is cold, could be anyone and maybe even Sell in the top 3 (remember Abdi at USA in the 12k at VC Park, not a pretty site for him).

Ritz only runs wells in time trial fashion with the perfect weather, pace, etc. His own coach says he can't run well in heat so if his coach doesnt beleive in him, how can we. KK is always injured and I would be shocked if he finished.

d3alum wrote:

...if his coach doesnt beleive in him, how can we...

logic more gap-ridden than the grand canyon

MarathonMind wrote:

7. Meb (he's not 100%)

meb wasn't 100% in birmingham and he still ended up 2nd. i said it then and i'll say it now: a 90% meb is still a tough man to beat. and that's assuming he's only "90%."

a few people have mentioned nuci--one "c", he's not italian. it's "noo-see." that being said, go nooch! of all the "american dream" stories in the field, his is the best.

"Agent-00" in 2:11:30

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/2620

Tough race for 2nd. But here it goes

Hall(+:15)

Abdi (+:25)

Sell (+:27)

Culpepper (+:45)

Lemkuhle (+:47)

Gilmore (+1:10)

Ritz(+1:14)

Hussein (+1:29)

Browne (+1:45)

Shay (+1:55)

Meb-DNF, heard not 100%, will try to mix things up with the 10,000.

KK -DNF, has Moroccan embassy on speed dial

1-abdi

2-culp

3-meb

4-ritz

5-sell

6-torres

7-hartman

8-browne

9-gilmore

10-hansons

1. Meb

2. Culpepper

3. Hall

4. Abdi

5. Ritz

6. Sell

7. KK

8. Rohat

9. Browne

10. Gilmore

I think Ritz might try and pull the same stunt he did at USA XC Nationals, but because it's a longer race, he falls farther back.

i doubt that. he realizes now more than ever how much his performance depends on how wisely he uses his energy, not only after what happened to his in his first marathon but what also happened when he tried dieting for the usa outdoor t&f 10k. no way he's going to go out and lead it, but he will conservatively hang with the lead pack.

Abdi

Meb

Ritz

Cupepper

Sell

Hall

Gilmore

Browne

Verran

KK

1. Abdi Abdirahman

2. Brian Sell

3. Meb Keflezighi

4. Dathan Ritzenhein

5. Alan Culpepper

6. Ryan Hall

7. Peter Gilmore

8. Josh Rohatinsky

9. Josh Cox

10. Clint Verran