WHO THINKS ABDI WILL DOMINATE THE MARATHON TRIALS?

it will be interesting to see how the race progresses, as in whether it's a fast paced race or not. there are a lot of guys who could hang with 5:00-10/mile pace, so I wonder if someone will make a move half way just to try and seperate the men from the boys. here is who i see finishing in the top whathaveyou...

1. Hall

2. Abdi

3. Meb

4. Culpepper

5. Ritzenhein

6. Sell

7. Gilmore

8. Solinsky

9. Verran

10. Hartman

jk about Solinsky; dude has football practice

The marathon isn't the 1/2 marathon. It's an entirely different problem. Anything about 65, especially if it's on a sunny day, is a problem -- IN THE MARATHON.

You have a fetid imagination.

August 5th 2007 was a day that you could train for all your life and never see. The week of the race was one of the most humid of the Summer, but a high pressure system blew into town just in the nick of time. It was one of the best days I've ever seen for racing, cool, dry air, in the shade almost the entire way, a tailwind, and downhill. It doesn't get any better than that.

black cactus

http://www.flocasts.org/flotrack/speakers.php?sid=402

black cactus is going to get smashed by the foot of the Soul Insky... but not really

Abdi is a very fine runner but this is a stupid thread. Abdi has NEVER dominated a race. Give me an example of where he has beaten a good field by a minute or so? It has NEVER happened. I would not be a bit shocked if Abdi won the trials but he is not capable of running away from people.

your memory and analysis is clearly off. the day was very warm and definitely NOT perfect by the end of the race. a few numbers here and there only tell part of the story. also listen to the post-race interviews with the runners, they also said it was warm. nearly all of the half-marathons under 60min were set in the late fall or early spring, or even the winter. that should tell you something right there.

also, your analysis of temperatures of the fastest 5000's and 10000's also had temp's in the 60s. so the half-marathon goes up to the 70 to be perfect, but the marathon goes back down to sub60? again flawed logic just to fit your weak argument.

Abdi and Hall need to make the pace aggressive early. They have run considerably faster than anyone else in the field (Khalid wil not show up on race day). They are both over a minute faster than Meb and Culpepper and 2 minutes faster than Sell. The longer that they allow all of these folks to stick around the worse it is for them. Trent Briney became a factor because the favorites kept him in the race. The field is much better now and it is stupid to allow 15 Trent Briney's to stick around.

Of Abdi, Hall, and Meb, at least one of them will not make the team.

So, that leaves the door open for one guy -- that guy is Dathan Ritzenhein.

On paper it would be Meb, Abdi, Hall in that order and that is how it will be in reality as well.

visitor wrote:

your memory and analysis is clearly off. the day was very warm and definitely NOT perfect by the end of the race. a few numbers here and there only tell part of the story. also listen to the post-race interviews with the runners, they also said it was warm. nearly all of the half-marathons under 60min were set in the late fall or early spring, or even the winter. that should tell you something right there.

also, your analysis of temperatures of the fastest 5000's and 10000's also had temp's in the 60s. so the half-marathon goes up to the 70 to be perfect, but the marathon goes back down to sub60? again flawed logic just to fit your weak argument.

Have a seat Joel, you're confused. The data you're speaking of was an analysis of the weather conditions of the top 50 track times. The average temp during the top 50 10000s was 65.5, but that's not the entire story, a full 17 out of those 50 had temps over 70degrees at race time -- that's 34%. A perfect day isn't an average, but a range. Imagine what those 10k runners would say if in addition to temperature the track was downhill and had a tailwind the entire way from the halfway mark?

As far as temperature goes, all readings on the thermometer are not the same. 70 at 4:00pm is not the same as 70 at 8-9 pm (when most track races are run) due to the lack of direct radiant energy. 70 degrees at 7:00am is almost identical to racing in the evening.

I remember the morning of August 5th well, and the chatter among my peers, all of them who've run half marathons much faster than you, about how perfect it was for racing. As I've said before, you could train a lifetime and never get a day like it was for the NYC half marathon. I personally prefer temperatures on the cooler side, but would have been licking my chops over a day like August 5.

George you are clearly twisting what you said in previous posts, unless what you said was wrong before. Perfect would have been sub55-65; 70 with middling humidity is less than perfect. And it did get warm towards the end. I think your range of what perfect is is much to wide and may be clouded by how humid it was previously in the week.

"Training for a lifetime" is a non sequitir.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

visitor wrote:

George you are clearly twisting what you said in previous posts, unless what you said was wrong before. Perfect would have been sub55-65; 70 with middling humidity is less than perfect. And it did get warm towards the end. I think your range of what perfect is is much to wide and may be clouded by how humid it was previously in the week.

I'm not twisting anything. I'm stating the facts. There was no "middling humidity" about August 5. It was 70 degrees at start, 70 degrees at finish (westside hwy in the shade) and the dew point was 55' -- it doesn't get any better than that.

visitor wrote:

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Don't expect to get Malmo to agree with you on ANYthing, even that.

(and .....

I am not sure what the normal temps in NYC in August have to do with the actual temp that day. It might normally by 125 in Iraq in August, but if you woke up one morning and it was 95, I still wouldn't call it "absolutely perfect" to race a 1/2 marathon just because it was better than normal. )

All this arguing about past weather brings me to an idea about future weather. It is almost certain to be very hot in Beijing, so I think the best way to choose a team is to run the trials in cool weather.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

visitor wrote:

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Don't expect to get Malmo to agree with you on ANYthing, even that.

(and .....

I am not sure what the normal temps in NYC in August have to do with the actual temp that day. It might normally by 125 in Iraq in August, but if you woke up one morning and it was 95, I still wouldn't call it "absolutely perfect" to race a 1/2 marathon just because it was better than normal. )

I didn't say anything about normal temps in NYC. But should you ask, the temperature High/Low/Average were almost exactly the average for the date. The difference was the humidity, the dew point was 10 degrees lower, and dew point is the measure of energy in the air. A day with average humidity would have been a problem as it was in the days preceding an immediately following August 5. On race day it was 70 with low humidity, in the shade, with a tailwind and down hill the last half of the race. It doesn't get any better.

malmo wrote:

On race day it was 70 with low humidity, in the shade, with a tailwind and down hill the last half of the race. It doesn't get any better.

No one has said anything yet about naked women or beer, so I have to say that it COULD be better.

you don't have to win by a minute to dominate a race...........it is possible to dominate a race and only win by a few seconds. A good example would be Abdi's win at USATF 10k track champs

This year's race will have the most depth I have seen since the early 80s; however, there is no one who stands above the crowd.

TIER 1 - I can make a case for either of these guys:

Khalid - The x factor, he is either going to win it or DNS/DNF, btw a 2:12 marathon is a training run for Khalid - I think he need a fast pace to assure victory

Abdi - Dominated the USATF 10K, ran strong in the Olympic 10K and his performance at the Philly and NYC halfs in my mind are on par with Hall's half USR - can win off of any pace

Meb - Has looked really good in some shorter races this year, at the very least, if he remains healthy there is no way he will not make the top 3 off of any type of pace

Hall - Even though he is the American record holder for the half and has a 2:07 debut, he needs one or two more solid performance before I am sold - I think he needs a fast pace

TIER 2 - The marathon is the most unpredictable of running events; If any of the tier 1 guys falter, these guys will step in:

Culpepper - He won the USATF XC against a great field, he beat Adbi, Ritz, Torres and Goucher among others in that race, this year's 12K race was suited to a marathoner

Ritz - I am absolutely convinced Ritz can be a great marathoner, I think NY was an aberration, a learning experience

Sell - ran 2:10 on the Boston course, this tells you he is capable of 2:11 on the NY course, if the race is at a 2:11 pace, this will eliminate everyone but the tier 1 and 2 guys

TIER 3

Gilmore - I don't think he can run a 2:12 pace and then kick the last mile, which is what it might come down to

Cabada - I don't think he run a 2:12 pace and then kick the last mile, which is what it might come down to - he has never broken 29 in the 10K

Famiglietti - If Fam is in the race with a mile to go, all bets are off

Browne - A very capable runner, but I don't know what to expect coming off of injuries

Torres - A 27:42 10K guys has to be respected, he has a good build and stride efficiency for the marathon

Goucher - I am reading Running with the Buffaloes, based on his training runs, he probably could have run a 2:12 marathon in the fall of his senior year at Colorado - 1st time guys are dangerous

Shay - Capable of being in the mix for most of the race at a 2:12 pace

Hussein - Capable of being in the mix for most of the race at a 2:12 pace

Culpepper pulling away. rofl.