If a real gas shortage were to happen tomorrow ...

know nothing wrote:

Reread the conclusion. None of that stuff is going to happen anytime soon, if in our lifetimes.

There\'s no way you can say that none of that stuff is going to happen. Anyway, my point wasn\'t that it was all going to happen, just to point out that there\'s a more reasonable alternative to those that claim that \"peak oil\" has passed. People have been saying that since the 70\'s, maybe before that for all I know.

I\'m all for alternatives to oil because it puts money in the hands of some bad folks, but I won\'t give credence to those who keep crying wolf about stuff like peak oil.

mid-dist wrote:

Anyway, my point wasn't that it was all going to happen, just to point out that there's a more reasonable alternative to those that claim that "peak oil" has passed. People have been saying that since the 70's, maybe before that for all I know.

You are missing the point of Peak Oil. Just because oil production peaks, doesn't mean it all dries up overnight, its a long slow decline.

For example, if the peak occurred in 2000(just an example mind you) Then in 2020 the world will be producing as much oil as it produced in 1980.

This peaking effect has already been observed several times on a smaller scale. For example US domestic productin peakes in 1970 and has been slowly shrinking ever since. The US still produces lots and lots of oil, just less and less every year.

Oh, and about that article.

It doesn'r really say much. Just that ANWR will pump a million barrells a day (someday in the future 10-15 years, but the article doesn't mention that). Talk about pissing in the ocean. It has no effect on Peak Oil.

Peak Oil is very real and very scary. Some people say don't worry about it because non traditional sources will make up for it (nuclear, coal, shale oil etc). I hope so, cause Mad Max was a good movie, but I don't want to live it.

Oil shortage? wrote:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/20/60minutes/main1225184.shtml

Ah yes, Canada's shale oil. If only it was that simple.

The problem with this "oil" is that's its not oil. Its oily rock or sand. Extracting any usable oil is very expensive, in terms of money, energy and impact on the enviroment.

It takes about 2 barrels of oil (or the energy equivalent) to extract 3 barrels of oil. Right now this energy is coming from natural gas.

You should be able to guess this is not a very viable solution for peak oil, as natural gas production follows a very similiar curve to oil production. So as natural gas prices rise, so does the expense of extracting this oil.

And it is the price of oil that is the killer, not actually the supply (in the short term). As energy prices rise, so does inflation. The world's economy slows. Recession hits etc etc.

Oil shale, as explained in this article, is no solution unless someone finds a way to magic the oil into a usable product.

Let me just clarify things here.

Peak Oil doesn't mean we run out of oil.

Peak Oil means we run out of CHEAP oil.

Humans will never use up all the oil in the world (civilization will either have collapsed or moved on to some other energy source long before that).

But we will very soon use up all the cheap oil in the world (if not already). Those oil sands are not a source of cheap oil, and therefore have no effect on Peak Oil.

Oil prices are rising and will never go back down again. This is going to be disaterous to the economy as the world's economic system is based entirly on the premis of cheap energy.

You will lose your job to depression long before gas supplies dry up. Thing 1930's style unemployment. Sure you can bike to the supermarket, but can't afford to buy anything cause you don't have a job.

they need to pump all of those tar sands to the mojave and use solar panels to break up the oil and sand. Its like killing two birds with one stone, because with new superconducters that solar energy could also go to California, Texas, and some portions of the Midwest, although the East will still depend on other forms. Coal is very plentiful in WV, PA, and some parts of VA, NC, NY and the east will just have to use coal, although with some new Carbon Scrubbers coal shouldn't be so dirty in 10 years time. If you also factor in ethanol and more efficient cars and trucks you can start making big changes without changing life too much.

But joy riding has got to go.

SUV's have got to go.

Carpooling and Public transportation need to get more gov't funding.

And China needs to be destroyed.

Maybe then America's standard of living will be the same in 30 years.

Umm, superconductors to transport energy to California? Superconductors are a little expensive, no? Hell, even copper is too expensive. They use aluminum for high voltage transmission lines.

Peaker wrote:

You are missing the point of Peak Oil. Just because oil production peaks, doesn't mean it all dries up overnight, its a long slow decline.

Peak Oil is very real and very scary. Some people say don't worry about it because non traditional sources will make up for it (nuclear, coal, shale oil etc). I hope so, cause Mad Max was a good movie, but I don't want to live it.

I didn't miss the point, I just don't think that peak oil production has necessarily been reached. The economy wll adapt when it does, the sky is not falling. I wonder if my old high school history teacher is posting on this thread. In the early 90's he was telling us that we were all going to be working for the Japanese and that we wouldn't be as well off as our parents. By the way they are already extracting oil from the Canadian tar sands and there's more than one way to make electricity.

Maybe it has, maybe it'll take another couple of years. But it is comming. but consider this:

• Total world oil production reached 68 million barrels per day in 2003, according to a count by the Oil and Gas Journal. That's not much above the 66.7 million barrels per day. in 2001. Oil reserves estimated at 1.266 trillion are up only a bit from 1.213 trillion a year earlier.

• Production has peaked for more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the US (1970) and Britain (1999). China, second to the US in the consumption of oil, was a net exporter of oil until five years ago.

• The Department of Energy predicts world demand will reach 119 million b.p.d. in 2025, with huge increases in China, India, and other developing nations.

• In 2002, the world used four times as much oil as was newly found.

• The rate of discovery of worldwide oil reserves, after declining for 40 years, has slowed to a trickle. In 2000, there were 16 large discoveries of oil, eight in 2001, three in 2002, and none last year, notes James Meyer, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London.

• All the giant fields, such as those in the Middle East, have already been discovered, some experts say. These giants are relatively easy to find. The last major oil field, Cantarell, off Mexico's shore, was discovered in 1976.

(from

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I sure hope so. Cause we aint doing jack about it now.

I'm curious, why the faith the problem will just fix itself in the future?

I'm quite sure I'm not your highschool teacher.

They sure are. And are going to make a fortune out of it too.

And there are lots of ways to make electricity. Wouldn't it be nice if we invested in some of these technologies now?

You are right, the sky is not falling. Its a more subtle problem called the long emergency

It'll be many years before things really bad. How long do you want to wait till we do something about it?

superconductors are expensive, but with development that cost should come down. And the problem with Transmission lines is friction against the electric current. Like I said earlier in 10 years these problems will be much smaller than they are now, and with a diversified/efficient/renewable energy policy in place energy shortages won't be as catastrophic as everyone makes them out to be.

crap.

Wow. Do you know what superconductors are made out of? Or how they work? What, are you going to replace all the power lines in the world with ambient temperature superconductors? Woah, there, Smokey McSmokeALot, lay off the bong for a few minutes.

And do you know how much solar energy panels cost? Go ahead, look how much it would cost to replace your electric bill with solar energy panels. Or your parents electric bill. Hundreds of thousands of dollars! Maybe less if you live near the equator or in the desert where it's always sunny.

Nuclear energy, that's the key. When was the last time the US put a new nuclear reactor on line?

Josh wrote:

Wow. Do you know what superconductors are made out of? Or how they work? What, are you going to replace all the power lines in the world with ambient temperature superconductors? Woah, there, Smokey McSmokeALot, lay off the bong for a few minutes.

And do you know how much solar energy panels cost? Go ahead, look how much it would cost to replace your electric bill with solar energy panels. Or your parents electric bill. Hundreds of thousands of dollars! Maybe less if you live near the equator or in the desert where it's always sunny.

Nuclear energy, that's the key. When was the last time the US put a new nuclear reactor on line?

Josh, I agree with you on the superconductors and ACOSTA is way off with that. But where are you getting your facts on the solar energy panels? You can get a system installed on your roof around here that will generate enough energy for your house for $20,000.

I dunno, I remember looking for a system and that it would cost more than the house which I was considering. The panels are expensive, but also the batteries to store all the energy that you will need at night, over the winter, and when the sun isn't as strong. The amount of energy your house uses at a given minute or hour isn't a problem generating, it's that you are only generating it for maybe 8 hours a day. If you don't store the extra electricity when the sun is out, you can sell it back to the electrical company, but that means you still have to use their grid.

Plus I'm in Europe, more north than the US (if that's where you are) and stuff like that is expensive here anyways. I don't remember where I looked, maybe I didn't shop around enough.

$20,000 isn't bad. Is that just the panels or the whole shebang?

Those solar panels are REALLY cool, but I'm having a tough time understanding what the best way to store/sell back to the grid is.

They have some cool solar panels that look exactly like roof shingles that you can buy these days.

And at

www.windstreampower.com

, you can buy a bike trainer that can convert the energy you create cross training on the bike into usable electricity! Awesome!

Yeah, I'm in the US and where I live, we get a lot of days of sunshine. The $20,000 cost is for the whole system, but it is tied into the power company's grid. Also, I'm in Colorado, where there are some large tax credits and refunds for putting in a solar panel system. I think without the credits, it might be more expensive.

Josh wrote:

Nuclear energy, that's the key. When was the last time the US put a new nuclear reactor on line?

"Not in my backyard!" Thats what everyone would say.

With regards to solar panels, if $20,000 worth of panels is enough to generate electricity that you can sell back, how many years would you have to wait until you've paid off your $20k?? Joe Schmoe won't want to invest in that, its not worth it.

Willy Gates wrote:

With regards to solar panels, if $20,000 worth of panels is enough to generate electricity that you can sell back, how many years would you have to wait until you've paid off your $20k?? Joe Schmoe won't want to invest in that, its not worth it.

It would take me about 20 years. And if you consider the interest I would make on that $20,000 investment (if I invested it somewhere else), it would never make up for itself, financially. Unless electricity prices continue to go up, which they might...probably will. But I feel a personal responsibility to help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce our pollution. So there is that added bonus.

I agree that Joe Schmoe won't want to invest in that. That's why most people don't have solar panels on their houses.

KnowItAll wrote:

But I feel a personal responsibility to help reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce our pollution. So there is that added bonus.

Thank you so much for saying that. We need more people like you in this world.