Keely Hodgkinson to run the 400M in Rome DL. What time you got...?

Times thus far:

Douglas Burke: 49.4 -49.8
John Wesley: 50.80
L Doc: 50.86
Kobbs Hessler: 50.99
Bibi Owns: 50.8-51.20
Lkljb: 50+
Mock Tudor: 51.08
Salvitore St: 51.0x
NYCDCRunner1:51.5
Miclamlecuhtli: 51.6

50.89

Well apparently her time in the 400m relay was the second fastest ever in the Championship history, so that indicates , she should be capable of 50 something, at least.

Her 4x4 split was sub-50 indoors, which offsets part of the advantage from a sort of running start. I think she can run low 50 this year if block starts are not an issue for her. 50.28 prediction. She is actually looking like she is starting to get the 400m. I think a sub-50 may come next year.

I’d argue running in lanes and the impact on pacing is a bigger deal for the indoor 400m to outdoor 400m.

Pacing is so important to so many distances for optimal performance, and I found this certainly true of the 400m. I always preferred the outdoor 400m because unless you’re head and shoulders above your competition indoors, you have to push too hard in the first 200m to get position.

Wish Keely the best, I’m curious to see where she’ll land.

Who even cares?

Calm down. A lot of people do, even though their life doesn't depend on it. That attitude is highly uncalled for

49.26

By This Time last Year Naser had run under 49 twice 48.67 was her best by may 16th

Her PR is 51.49 unless I am mistaken. I think she could dip just below 51:00?

51.01

Not sure whether these stats help in predicting or not, but...

Her outdoor PB is 51.61 from 2024 in Savona, where she ran Sharlene Mawdsley close (51.43). That is also the year she set her 800m PB (1:54.61) That 400m was her opening race of the season in mid May. She went on to have two more races at 400m at the 400m at the UK Champs, and made the final where she came 7th (heat and final outside 52 seconds).

In 2022 - when she was 1.5 seconds slower over 800m than her 2024 PB - she ran 52.42 indoors and then 52.41 outdoors at the UK final and came 5th. So her indoor & outdoor times were basically identical.

In 2023 - when she was 0.5 seconds slower over 800m than her 2024 PB - she ran 51.76 outdoors (no 400m indoors) & came 3rd at the Euro U23, some way behind John & Jaeger. She had run one 400m prior in the season, a 52.24, one week after her then PB over 800m of 1:55.77.

So she has been chipping away at that 400m PB over the last 4 years, and whilst her 51.49 indoors this winter is a big improvement from her 54.42 in 2022, that was the last time she ran it indoors, and her outdoor PBs have all been small(er) reductions.

Thinking it over again, I don't think she will break 51 in Rome. Even though her indoor 800m shows she is in better form than 2024, I think chipping off nearly half a second off that indoor PB is the max she will do. I am going to predict a 51.1

Entirely possible for a convicted doper. That she is allowed to compete again shows the rot in the sport.

51.0

Updated with additional times:

Douglas Burke: 49.4 -49.8
ZXCVXZCV: 50.28
John Wesley: 50.80
L Doc: 50.84
Flo'da Boy: 50.89
Kobbs Hessler: 50.99
Bibi Owns: 50.8-51.20
Lkljb: 50+
Mock Tudor: 51.08
Moorest: 51.0
My Prediction: 51.01
Salvitore St: 51.0x
Bemkefol: 51.10
Track Chick: 51.26
NYCDCRunner1: 51.5
Miclamlecuhtli: 51.6

I wouldn't rule out sneaking under 50, but it seems unlikely to me. She'll only be doing this at a DL because she thinks she can run something significant. If it was just a glorified training TT then she'd do it at a low-key meet. Keely only races when she's ready, so I'll go for 50.15

I agree her team only race her when she's ready, and there's no way they would enter her into a DL race over 400m unless they thought she was capable of running a really good race.

Whilst I am predicting 51.1, anything up to 50.7 ish wouldn't 'surprise' me. But I just can't get my head around a huge jump in PB and close to 50.0 though.

I assume this is her opening 400m of the outdoor season and she won't have raced one before. If she had 3 or 4 races at 400m then I could see her getting her PB down to under 50.5, but not in her first 400m.

Naser just ran 51.56 in her first 400M. I never believed that 48.67 time last year, given that it was run in Jamaica.