Fan Out West -> wrote:
Finally, a comment was made in an earlier post regarding Grant -- and by logical extension, Nico & Graham as well -- not having a chance to come close to breaking Cheptegei's 12:35/5000 WR, possibly not ever breaking 12:40. The comment was written as an absolute, as if the poster was in possession of privileged knowledge of the future.
Rather than responding in a similar cynical fashion, I only request anyone interested in this topic to review the top-25 names on the all-time list, below . . .
. . . then explain to the world why a 32-year-old Hagos Gebrhiwet can come with 1.4 seconds of breaking the WR, while twenty-somethings Fisher, Young and Blanks cannot.
I made the comment you’re referring to. I didn’t mean to say that I literally know that Fisher will never break the WRs—I don’t know if there’s a god or if Oswald acted alone or if Grant Fisher will run a 12:34 5k—I was just making a rhetorical choice that seemed appropriate for an online sports discussion.
Thankfully, rojo stepped in and made me look far less condescending in comparison. Good stuff rojo.
I don’t agree that making an assessment of Fisher’s future performance means “by logical extension” I’m saying the same for Nico Young and Graham Blanks. Young and Blanks are both 5 years younger than Fisher and on different improvement curves/trajectories. I’m less keen to “put a ceiling” on a 23 year old who, who knows, may have broken 12:40 multiple times by the time they’re Fisher’s age.
As for Gebrhiwet running 12:36: one anomalous performance doesn’t make me think Fisher is any more likely to break the WR. And that 12:36, with how fast he closed, was anomalous and I’ve never been able to understand quite where it came from. Did he benefit from PEDs? Probably. And then there’s the question of why all ten of the men ahead of Fisher’s 12:44.09 on the all time list are from Ethiopia, Uganda or Kenya. Regardless of why, it makes it seem more improbable for Fisher to vault to #1.
I wasn’t trying to be very cynical, but there’s a fine line between cynical and sober realism. I see no reason why Fisher can’t lower his 5k PB, and could even see 12:39.xx in an ideal scenario.


