This thread was started before the race. We changed the title and merged it with a 2nd thread that was started with the title of "Ethan MF Shuley 2:07:13 Marathon at 2026 Osaka Marathon". We have an article up oon the race here: https://www.letsrun.com/news/2...
Hanging onto Ethan Shuley who’s in some outrageous shape - keep an eye on the Osaka Marathon next week, there’s gonna be a surprise American right at the front! 🔥
Jake Barraclought aka Ran To Japan ran his last workout with him, saw he was in great shape and put this comment on Ethan Shuley's Strava.
I give you guys credit for burning the midnight oil and getting this article together overnight.
As someone who follows running pretty closely, I was surprised that I had never heard of the guy -- which was one of the reasons that I made my post last night. His 1:01:01 half and 2:07:14 are definitely the most out of nowhere results since Bill Rodgers's 1975 World Cross bronze and Boston victory in the pre-internet age.
I will have to go down a rabbit hole today and watch his videos and listen to the Life In Stride podcast episode. Which RTJ videos was he in?
Its easy to throw about the PED accusations, but looking at his strava hes been putting in a crazy amount of volume, lot more than most American pros do. Just another example of a guy who is built for the marathon but not your typical NCAA program?
Whether he’s on PEDs or not, your argument is a terrible one. You do realize pros don’t take PEDs to be lazy, right? You take PEDs and then train more
This post was edited 21 seconds after it was posted.
He ran a 61 minute half around a month ago. Great to see his fitness translate to the marathon.
Great to see him translate his fintess to the marathon?
In what world is 61:01 equal to 2:07? The WA scoring table has it at 2:09:09. John Kellogg's chart has it at like 2:09:45. This was MUCH MUCH better. WA says it's a 60:07 half.
It's the 14th fastest marathon ever run by an American in any race.
ROJO I am just the messenger here:
Agree the WA tables don't reflect the effort, but...
Go to Runnerspace.com, then "Tools", then Performance predictor and enter his 61:01 half time. Two of the four predictions are very close and the other two now far off. And even the average of the four is 2:08
Pete Riegel's is the closest at 2:07:12 Here is a quote from the explanation/credits page from this calculator:
"Pete Riegel's Model: t2 = t1 * (d2 / d1)^1.06 where t1 equals the initial time, d1 equals the initial distance, d2 equals the new distance being calculated for, and t2 equals the predicted time for the new distance. The formula was developed by Pete Riegel and published first in a slightly different form in Runner's World, August 1977, in an article in that issue entitled "Time Predicting." The formula was refined for other sports (swimming, bicycling, walking) in an article "Athletic Records and Human Endurance," also written by Pete Riegel, which appeared in American Scientist, May-June 1981."
IMHO this is an excellent prediction calculator. I have used it for several year. It is often so accurate, that there have been times after racing hard after a 10 milers (Flint Crim) or Half Marathons (USATF Masters championships), that boggles my mind; < 00:00:10 off.
