VIPAM wrote:
I'm not saying Cole isn't the favorite but it wouldn't surprise me if Sam Ruthe wins tomorrow. The teenager has nothing to lose and everything to gain tomorrow in the clash. 16 year old Sam can run hard as he can to try and beat Hocker the Olympic Champ and if Sam loses, almost everyone expected it...
Yeah you make a lot of valid points there - especially that Ruthe has nothing to lose, which he doesn't (and vice versa)
But this is why I don't think the race is as fast as people think it's going to be. Because I believe Hocker knows how to and will control the pace to suit his strengths, which are the ability to handle accelerations and decelerations in pace and then kick very hard in the final 100m. So I could see those 5th and 6th laps (809-1209m) dropping off in pace as Hocker recharges for his big finish - something which we haven't seen Ruthe do at all yet (we have only seen him grind out even fast even splits in almost every one of his races this season).
This is the way that Hocker gives himself the best chance of handling Sam Ruthe - if he just plays even split pacemaker for 7 laps and falters (which is possible, he is human and doesn't run awesome all the time), then it's more likely there is a shock result.