If they can get Bove, the same pacer as they had in the 2k this weekend, I bet they can go faster than expected. I bet he can run 59s/400m thru 2k.
At that point, Fisher is the most likely to take up the pace. If he keeps it on 59s/400m then someone is going to outkick him and run 755-756, there are just too many huge kickers for him to win. Fisher would have to do something insane like 753 to win. If Kerr is healthy and fit, there is no way 3 guys beat him. Other than Ingebrigtsen, he might be the most consistent performer on the circuit when he does race. His tactics are the best in the field, especially compared to someone like Hocker. Hocker might be the most talented American distance runner ever but he puts himself into bad positions on a regular basis. That is more problematic indoors vs outdoors, but he may be able to overcome it because he's so incredibly fast at the end. Strand is the real wild card here. We haven't seen him in multiple years worth of high level races like the other guys so we don't know if he can hang on to a really hot pace in a 3k/2 mile and simultaneously get the tactics right. My guess is that he can because he just outkicked Kwemoi at world xc. I just don't think Wolfe has the gas to be there at the end. Right now, he looks like a younger version of Fisher.
Kerr takes over from Fisher with a strong move at 450m to go.
Hocker puts in a big move with 150m to go to try and take the lead but Kerr holds him off around the turn with Strand in tow.
Strand finally makes his move off the final turn but its too late.
1. Hocker 755.83
2. Kerr 756.02
3. Strand 756.10
4. Fisher 757
The pace is too hot for anyone else to be under 8 minutes
Cole Hocker is the king of the world. Celine Dion is singing his praises.
Lemme get this straight, in the same season Jakob ran 7:54.10 (equivalent to 7:19 over 3000m), he ran 3:27.14, 3:43.73, and 4:43.13. Do you seriously think that Hocker or anyone else is capable of anything close to those times right now? In early February? Nope, dreams.
Bro what are you saying Hocker and Fisher both ran around 7:23 indoors last year. That's like a 7:56 equivalent for 2 miles. Damn close to what Jakob ran for two miles outdoors. You wildin
I think Grant Fisher runs this race in about 7:58.
There are lots of runners in this race who can outkick Fisher in a slow race, but I think there are only four who could conceivably do so in a race that fast:
1) Cole Hocker. He's fit. He has the strength (5000m world champ, duh) and of course he has one of the best kicks. I am picking him to win.
2) Ethan Strand - the 2 mile is right in his wheelhouse and his kick is possibly as good as Hocker's. But maybe more of a 8:02 guy right now.
3) Parker Wolfe - he's arguably the strongest runner in the race, very fit at the moment, and has a superb kick. But, sub-8 is hard. No one has ever done it indoors. I think Wolfe is more of a 8:04 guy.
4) Josh Kerr - current indoor WR holder. I doubt he'd run this race if he were out of shape, but I just don't know how fit he is at the moment.
Prediction:
1. Cole Hocker
2. Grant Fisher
3. Ethan Strand
4. Josh Kerr
5. Parker Wolfe
As a journalist you learn to stir the pot a bit. Gault is using past perfotmance as a guide, which is most predictive in a vacuum.
That said, Fisher is super sharp, and Hockers aerobic ability is ever increasing.
If Kerr is on top of his A game, hes is the bet, but is he? dnt know. B+ wont do it.
so i go with fisher, with small sharpeni g likely, his kick has to be up there with Kerr and Hocker, at WR pace, he should have a bit more juice.
Mackey thinks Jakob’s 7:54 is under threat? This race might be too stacked for this to happen. They will be battling for positioning and running the extra distance on the curves in the process; too much energy wasted from this and going for the win. I can see the indoor WR going down, but dropping it by 6 seconds I think is a stretch.
In race as fast this one is likely to be,from early on, people will be running in single file with runners just hanging on. There will be minimal jockeying for position. Fisher will never leave the first lane and nothing will hinder him from running as fast he possibly can.
3:58Highlighted statements above correct on both accounts.
Pace (60-sec quarters thru 1 mile in 4-flat or faster) will preclude bunching. Expect Grant to be in 2nd, right behind the pacers, then take over and push to the end.
Worth reading this earlier thread where 7:56 - 7:57 is calculated to be the winning time:
I may be speculating or delusional I daydreamt that, with three laps to go, one the four runners in the lead pack (Hocker, Fischer, Kerr, Strand, trips taking the three others down in the process. In the ensuing chaos of everyone trying to get up, Beamish who was running alone in fourth, jumps over them and with a glimmer of hope at winning is inspired to go FTW in 7:59.90. Second is Wolfe in 8:02xx and Hocker comes in third in 8:04 after a gutsy rebound. This is followed by a complete spectrum of reactions from everyone and a generous number of threads on Let's run debating what happened, what could have happened (how at least there could have been four under 8:00, who was at fault, who is injured, what next, and how the hell I could possibly have foreseen this.
I assumed that'd been done wt. the sub-8:00 2 mile. Thanks for the fact!
Blanks deserves more attention. He ran 12:46 in Oslo last year, ~8:10-11 for the last 2 miles, & 7:29 for the indoor 3k. That's the 2rd fastest 5k in the field, behind only Fisher, and far ahead of the barely-sub-13-guys Teare, Robinson, and Hocker.
Pretty sure from the current line-up, Ben Allen from Empire Elite is the pacer
Not sure about current form as when he ran Dr Sanders in the mile, he did seem to be tying up than hitting the deck and DNF. but on paper, a 3:33 outdoor 1500/3:52 indoor miler should be capable to get the pace going...
Four world and/or Olympic champs in that race is great.
Another really unique race was the 1976 Olympic women's 100m final.
World record holders in the event:
Stecher, Helten, Richter, Göhr, Ashford
Olympic and/or world champions in the event (world champs just from 1983 onwards): Stecher, Richter, Göhr, Ashford (+ Cheeseborough who has won Gold in both relays).
I think Grant Fisher runs this race in about 7:58.
There are lots of runners in this race who can outkick Fisher in a slow race, but I think there are only four who could conceivably do so in a race that fast:
1) Cole Hocker. He's fit. He has the strength (5000m world champ, duh) and of course he has one of the best kicks. I am picking him to win.
2) Ethan Strand - the 2 mile is right in his wheelhouse and his kick is possibly as good as Hocker's. But maybe more of a 8:02 guy right now.
3) Parker Wolfe - he's arguably the strongest runner in the race, very fit at the moment, and has a superb kick. But, sub-8 is hard. No one has ever done it indoors. I think Wolfe is more of a 8:04 guy.
4) Josh Kerr - current indoor WR holder. I doubt he'd run this race if he were out of shape, but I just don't know how fit he is at the moment.
Why do none of us stick to the OP's original question? It was not who will win. It was whether JG has lost his mind. Yes, no, DNS, DNF, DQ, or MF FTW? How difficult can it be. Just stick to the question and the acceptable spectrum of responses. Now Ima learn to read to figure out what I just wrote.
Why do none of us stick to the OP's original question? It was not who will win. It was whether JG has lost his mind. Yes, no, DNS, DNF, DQ, or MF FTW? How difficult can it be. Just stick to the question and the acceptable spectrum of responses. Now Ima learn to read to figure out what I just wrote.
Oh dear, I added the words "his mind," clearly presumptuous, while the "it" that may have been lost was never specified. Suggestions for intended lost object welcome.
I assumed that'd been done wt. the sub-8:00 2 mile. Thanks for the fact!
Blanks deserves more attention. He ran 12:46 in Oslo last year, ~8:10-11 for the last 2 miles, & 7:29 for the indoor 3k. That's the 2rd fastest 5k in the field, behind only Fisher, and far ahead of the barely-sub-13-guys Teare, Robinson, and Hocker.
He looked trash at USA and World XC, don't think he's in form to compete for the win here
This race will be determined by who can hang on to a 60-59 pace. The strength guys are going to push this thing as fast as they can. This is a championship field but in essence its a time trial.
There will be only one strength guy pushing the pace and that will be Fisher. That’s what he did against Kerr in the 2-mile, Hocker in the 3000m, and Kessler in the 2000m.
Some you guys act like everyone in the race is in peak shape, but Fisher, with his 4:49, has a result that indicates he is close. Most of runners in the race are making their indoor debut and their fitness is an unknown. I seriously doubt Kerr will be at the top of his game.
Cole Hocker: 7:57 Grant Fisher: 7:59 Parker Wolfe: 8:01 Josh Kerr: 8:01 Ethan Strand: 8:03 Ky Robinson: 8:03 George Beamish: 8:04 Cooper Teare: 8:04 Drew Hunter: 8:06 Graham Blanks: 8:07 Edwin Kurgat: 8:07 Jake Wightman: 8:09
Would be kinda out of style for Hocker to win 2s in front. 1s at their finishing topspeed is a long way already. Hard to bet against him tho. Also Beamish, this guy knows how to play dark horse. Exciting race fo sho
I think Gault's ranking is fair, although I would put Wolfe ahead of Robinson because Wolfe just beat Robinson by 28 seconds at World XC. Wolfe also got the better of Robinson both indoors and outdoors in Robinson's last semester in the NCAA. Robinson had an excellent showing in Tokyo, but now that Wolfe is healthy and running so well, I like his chances in this race more.
I'm with you. Wolfe over Robinson. When I was reading it, I thought exactly that but it's hard to get passt "but he was 4th at Worlds last year." That being said, we are talking about winning the race. I just think it's tough for a 10,000 NCAA champ to win a 2 mile of this stature. Of course, Ky isn't your normal 10k guy. He has a 3:50 mile pb.
Lemme get this straight, in the same season Jakob ran 7:54.10 (equivalent to 7:19 over 3000m), he ran 3:27.14, 3:43.73, and 4:43.13. Do you seriously think that Hocker or anyone else is capable of anything close to those times right now? In early February? Nope, dreams.
Bro what are you saying Hocker and Fisher both ran around 7:23 indoors last year. That's like a 7:56 equivalent for 2 miles. Damn close to what Jakob ran for two miles outdoors. You wildin
Dude what are you talking about? 7:23 is NOT equivalent to 7:56 for two miles 🤦🏻
Bro what are you saying Hocker and Fisher both ran around 7:23 indoors last year. That's like a 7:56 equivalent for 2 miles. Damn close to what Jakob ran for two miles outdoors. You wildin
Dude what are you talking about? 7:23 is NOT equivalent to 7:56 for two miles 🤦🏻
Let's get some equivalent times out there. You convert the 2 mile to 3000 by dividing by 1.0804 and vice versa.
8:00.00 2 mile is equal to a 7:24.28 7:54.10 (Jakob's outdoor WR) is equal to a 7:18.82
Fisher's time from last year's 3k of 7:22.81 equates to a 7:58.41 to mile