1500, 5000m, 10000m triple possible for the Men in LA 2028

He has beaten everyone who medalled in the 10000m this year. So it’s not “unsupported speculation” to suggest that he may have a chance at Gold if he shifted his training. Would you agree?

But would you seriously want Wanyonyi to go out and destroy Laros and Jakob, running 3:24?

That’s fair, he could end up in a reoccurring injury pattern and be forced to retire.

I don’t know about that. Were it run like the 10000 this year, I think he could seriously rely on his 1500m specific strength to win. I think the argument you are making would apply more to Hocker.

There is no Sifan Hassan in the men's track game, sorry boys!

Not a single data point? Did you miss his 10,000 Euro XC victories?

Not a single data point? He makes 26min 10K and 58min HM Andreas Almgren blush with inadequacy when they train together.

1. Euros xc wins: 2021 -Jakob beat second placer Ares Kaya, who had a 10000m PR of 27.48!

2022 - Emile Cairess (with a 27.34 PB!) takes the silver behind Jakob.

2024 -Crippa (27.08 roads/ 27.10 track) gets silver behind the Norwegian, but this flat course is only 7.8 k, and the slow, tactical race resembles more a 5k than a 10k, and Crippa’s 5k PR is 13.02! So yes, Jakob’s many xc wins don’t say a lot about his 10k ability on the global stage.

2. Almgren about Jakob: The Swede stresses that it’s first and foremost tough for him to follow Jakob on the shorter stuff, but also that the Norwegian has the upper hand in the longer work outs as well. OK -but his sayings are clearly that the difference between the two gets smaller the longer the intervals. Interesting! (Have they tested long enough intervals to know where the turning point might be?). And also; how does Almgren know that Jakob is better than him, e.g in a training session like 4x2000m/6min (Or have they only done 1000meters together?): They do that as a threshold training, I believe, so is the Norwegian running faster than Almgren’s threshold here/ his comfort zone, or have they shared the lactate readings..? Or is this a subjective, even maybe a polite attitude towards his mate..?

3. I think it’s about half a year since the two have trained together. But it would surprise me if Almgren isn’t way better now -in the 2024 Euros xc in December he underperformed huge, and was handedly beaten by marathoner Crippa in that short course. So maybe the Swede, at least currently, has a huge upper hand in the 10k stuff (vs Jakob)..?

in the last olympics he arguably was the fittest in the field and by running in the pack drafting and striking with 600m to go, i'd favor him for the win, and last indoors he set world records in the metric and traditional miles.

what people are over valuing is the injury this year, and the assumption that he's going to age badly. and the assumption that he's stuck in setting up everyone, so they get the free ride all the way to the finishing straight.

sure, there is reason do doubt 2028, but, actually, it's always a bad bet to bet against a goat in any sport. because they don't follow the normal script, of very good elites on average.

if jacob has a 2026 goat season, the narrative will change, in favor of the above,

after all, these are "what have you done lately" boards, where guys are routinely written off when they were injured, or training thru. you get used to the zero learning curve of the masses, some of which run this site.

what can you do?

Can you list some of those race results so I don’t have to dig around on the WA site to find them?

Jakob said he trains like a HMer, so there’s no shifting his training. For 30% of the 10000m distance he beat Aregawi by less than 4 seconds which means he is closing the gap on Jakob from 1500m to 3000m. Do really think Jakob can maintain his edge at over Aregawi for another 7000m?

Agree as well

No, I don’t agree. Per the WA points tables, his 3:26.73 is equivalent to 26:20 and in no universe can he run that fast. He’ll always better in the 1500m compared to the 10000m

The guy, Crippa, that finished 2nd eight seconds back, has run 13:02/27:11. The meet is off season so not everyone is going to be at their best.

Regarding what Almgren said about training with Ingebrigtsen, results trump talk every time.

He can do it easily. He might even be able to do 6 Events:

800m:

Heats - 1:46

Quarters - 1:45

Semis - 1:44

Finals - 1:42

1500m:

Heats - 3:38

Semis - 3:32

Finals - 3:26

3000 Steeplechase:

Semis - 8:05

Finals - 7:45

5000m:

Semis - 13:10

Finals - 12:45

10000m:

Semis - 27:10

Finals - 26:35

Marathon:

Semis - 2:10

Finals - 2:02

Are you really so ignorant that you don´t know that Jakob has beaten Gressier, Kejelcha and Almgren many times? How can we take your opinions seriously if you don´t know the sport.

From the top of my head:

Gressier: Jakob beat him with a big margin in the 2016 U20 Euro XC 6.250km. And with a big margin in the senior Euro XC 10km 2021. Jakob´s first adult XC race; he didn´t compete in U23. In the 2022 Euro indoor 3000m Gressier was gapped when Jakob increased the pace in the final stages. Isaac Kimeli was a VERY happy no 2, then Mechaal, Katir and Nordas. In the 2023 5000m final in Budapest Gressier was left in the dust when the big boys started the long run for home about 400m out. G lost many sec on the last lap.

As far as I remember Gressier haven´t beaten Jakob before the 5000m final in Tokyo where Jakob wasn´t in top shape.

Kejelcha: Lost to Jakob with a significant margin in the WC 5000m finals in 2022 and 2023.

Lost twice in the 3000m. Last time in Silesia 2024 with a big margin; I think K exploded when he tried to hang on to the WR pace. In 2023 in Eugene K was close in a 3000m race a day after Jakob´s 3:43 mile. Finally: I think Jakob has beaten K convincingly in a couple of 1500m/ mile races.

I don´t think Kejelcha has beaten Jakob in any race

Almgren: Jakob beat him with a big margin in the Euro 5000m final in 2024. And in the Euro XC 7.734m december 2024 with a BIG margin. And easily in the Euro indoor 3000m 2025.

I don´t think Almgren has been even close to beat him at any time.

---------------

PS I have now double checked the above information.

Almgren also lost til Jakob in the 5000m heat in Budapest 2023 AND Kejelcha has lost twice to Jakob in the 1500m: Monaco 2020 and Ostrava 2020. Jakobs mile win was the Bowerman mile 2019.

That’s kind of a hodgepodge of races that don’t aid in predicting what he can do for 10000M. When he finally runs his 2nd paced 5000m, we’ll have a better metric for predictions.

He has beaten 10,000m WC gold medalist Gressier at Euro XC.

Also, Crippa was closing in on 2:06min and 59min fitness at the time - I think he was in pretty good shape! And handily beaten, by 8 seconds - as you point out.

Would love to see him crash and burn attempting the triple. A great opportunity for nine Next Guys.

There’s no 10000m on the track or fast 10K. Ingebrigtsen is the GOAT 3000m so of course he can beat all those guys at that distance. That he can beat 5/10 guys in the 1500m has nothing to do with how fast he can run 10000m. His 5000m have been sit and kick, and those results don’t tell us much either.

The race distances you’re using for XC are pretty wacky. His last World XC was U20 in 2019 and he finished 12th about 45 seconds back

You are cherry picking. The last first: He wasn´t able to beat a number of East African lightweighters on an extremely hilly route in Aarhus 2019. This has nothing to do with what he can do in a normal XC route or in a track 10.000m

Have you ever watched his last XC win in Turkey 2024?

This race shows clearly that he is completely superior to Ndikumwenayo and Almgren who both have run around 26:50 in the 10k. :

The 2024 XC race was initially front run by one of the best British runners in an honest pace.

About 17.5 minutes in Jakob goes to the front and immediately start to gap the field apart from Crippa, Ndikumwenayo, Kimeli, Schrub and Almgren. But these top runners have to fight to hang on to Jakob who is still cruising.

About 700m out the 5 top runners are about to be gapped as well: Crippa 1 sec behind, Ndik, 2 sec, Kimeli 3 sec, Schrub and Almgren 6 sec.

On these last 700m he takes further 7 sec on Crippa, 13 sec on Ndik., 14 sec on Kimeli, 12 sec on Almgren and 13 sec on Schrub.

As I wrote recently on another thread: This can only be explained by a far superior AEROBIC capacity because Jakob of course is not 7-14 sec faster than his competition in a 700m race.

In my opinion this is a clear indication that Jakob in top shape would be significantly stronger than Ndikumwenayo and Almgren in a 10000m on the track.

My Norwegian friend "curiousdude" will disagree claiming that the other guys had a bad race and that it would be different if the race had been a 10k and not a 7.73?m race.

But that is nonsense in my opinion. None of these European top runners were possibly in top shape in December last year but that includes Jakob. If he had not got his achilles problems he will possibly have peaked at the WC in Tokyo as Kimeli, Almgren and Gressier did.

And Jakob would have destroyed the field also if it had been a 10k as he did in the Euro XC 2021 and 2022. In 2021 he destroyed Gressier with 19 seconds over the last kilometers.

So he has destroyed no 1 and 3 at the WC Tokyo 10,000m over the distance.

He hasn´t competed against Kejelcha in the 10,000m/ 10k BUT I think we can conclude from the above that Jakob can run a world class 10,000m AND he has beaten Kejelcha rather easily in the two 5000m finals they have competed in so I think there is quite evident that Kejelcha also would get a hard time in the 10,000m against a Jakob in top shape.